The worst pedigree wins the Derby
 

So much for that angle, LOL. Another horse who could care less where he came from.

Just wisper in his ear,

See that finish line kid, run your azz off until you cross the line OK

Yes sir

EOM

Says who? I thought he had a great pedigree for the Derby... not sure what you're talking about?

8-1-12-0-1 (22) DI = 2.14 CD = 0.68

Young Street Cry appears to be a solid source of stamina on dirt. Many have rated SS as lacking because his sire is yet untested. Remember who Street Cry is: He was considered "the" colt at two, most likley to succeed etc until he was sent to Dubai to prep for the Derby. He missed most of his 3yo season and returned to beat Sahkee in the DWC at 4, at 10f on dirt. His sire Machiavellian sired Almutawakel who also won the DWC.

SS may get more speed from his female family but like Unbridled, Quiet American and others, Street Cry is a stamina influence from a speedy sireline.

Street Sense: From the first crop of Street Cry, who won the Dubai World Cup and Stephen Foster, Street Sense has everything it takes to win the Kentucky Derby. Like his sire, Street Sense should get only better with maturity and distance. His pedigree is strengthened by his first two damsires (Dixieland Band and His Majesty), who add more stamina. His second dam is a half-sister to Mr. Greeley, and he is also inbred 5x4 to Natalma. Three great stallions descend from Natalma - Northern Dancer, Danehill and Machiavellian - as well as hundreds of stakes winners. Getting a double dose of Natalma has proven to be a very good thing, and Street Sense is a prime example.

this is from lauren stich drf's breeding expert

They can't argue your point. SS was a duel quailifier and had the style to coop with the large field. The breeding is there.

this is the first time I heard that Street Sense had a bad, sorry "The worst pedigree" Those *s they put next to the numbers means something like... unproven. I don't know. But one look at his profile tells you he is one of the best. Hard Spun was the best bred in the race IMO. That was quite an effort on his part but Street Sense was the only one that was moving.

I wonder how he and Hard Spun came out of the race

What are you taking about Street Cry was a Dubai World Cup winner!! Anyone out there know the Beyer figure he earned yesterday. I was thinking like 104-106?? On to the preaknes against a fresh Chelokee.

Michael Veitch Turf Writer for The Saratogian had him 20th in the listing

From a software POV, HTR had SS on top in Pedigree.

oh man I could say so much.

I think I have already expressed how difficult it is to determine the capability of a horse using very suspect genetic analysis. Find me, some genes that are directly related to some sort of physiological process involving running, or some muscular configuration, etc... and then Im closer to getting on board. And the day will come. But not in my lifetime imo.

no way he had the worst pedigree. i thought cowtown showed limitations--apparently he felt the same way!
street cry is a young sire, and relatively unproven, but newer sires have lit up the derby tote board recently, and street cry does have plenty of pedigree to make up for the lack of numbers regarding runners/winners. machiavelli was a top sire, his dams family proven as well.
it's much like elusive quality, and distorted humor. not around long, but good support, top mares, bingo. tiznow is another one.

Never heard of him and I should have if he is in the pedigree business.

Street Sense is from the first crop of a World Cup winner Street Cry, a G1 winner at 10f and a son of Machiavellian, the only stallion to sire two World Cup winners. Street Cry's dam won the Irish Oaks (G1) at 12f, and was by REAL Derby winner Troy.

The dam Bedazzle won 4 races and nearly $200,000, meaning she was running in good allowance company at major tracks, since she earned no black type. Her sire Dixieland Band has sired winners at all sorts of distances, from 5f maiden races to the Ascot Gold Cup at over 2 miles (Drum Taps). But in the main, his better ones could run well at a mile or more.

The second dam was a SW at beyond 8f on turf by His Majesty, who is a major stamina source (sire of Pleasant Colony, et. al., damsire of Dynaformer).

His fourth dam Lianga is a sprinting legend in Europe, where she won all four of the major sprint stakes in France and England, beating the guys with elan; she was the best runner sired by Kentucky Derby winner (in actual running) Dancer's Image and her prowess prompted his exportation to stand in France.

Absolutely indefensible statement! Others have detailed SS's pedigree, before posting something you might research instead of taking the word of some guy I never heard of! By any measure, SS has the pedigree of a Ky Derby winner. Regarding angles...the only one's I look at (zeros in DP and at least 16 pts), he has 22 pts in DP centered in the "C" (Classic) catagory and only one zero. Plenty of stamina...absolutely ridiculous statement!

Hey, pedigree experts, has any other stallion sired a Derby winner from his very first crop?

wasn't funny cide from distorted humors first crop? and smary was either first, or maybe second crop....i'd have to go back and look at all of them.

not something i feel like doing right now.

Try Gallant Fox, Derby and Triple Crown winner in 1930, sired Omaha, Derby and Triple Crown winner in 1935.

So Omaha was from Gallant Fox's first crop?

I'll look up Distorted Humor/Funny Cide, Danzig. I'm on break at work right now and if I let myself nap I won't wake up until Tuesday. This'll keep me alert. :)

Yes and no for DH- Funny Cide was from his first American crop- he stood first in Australia. From Wikipedia:

<<Beginning in 1999, Distorted Humor stood twice in Victoria, Australia (at Grand Lodge Stud in Avenel) for $12,000. He sired two Australian crops. In only these two crops, 93 were runners, 74 winners, 12 placed, and two others have come in the money. His get include Rinky Dink: winner of the South Australian Oaks and the Tasmanian Oaks, Distorted Halo: winner of the Moonee Valley and Mercedes-Benz Hong Kong Derby Trial, and Tirade: winner of the Caulfield Guineas Prelude and third in VRC Ascot Vale Stakes. Among his Australian winners are not only flat runners, but jumpers. The jumper, four-year-old, Some Are Bent, took the Moonee Valley Hurdle in July of 2006, his third jumps win in his past four outings.

Back in the States without fanfare, Distorted Humor's 2000 fee remained low and his mares average, yet he also quickly made his mark, unexpectedly becoming America's leading freshman sire of 2002. And then in 2003, his stud career expanded a hundredfold with the arrival of his most famous son, the dual classic winner Funny Cide, as well as the Grade I runner, Awesome Humor.

For three years now his mares have become classier and classier (for instance, in 2007 he is expected to service the mare Quendom (ARG), the dam of Invasor); his American off-spring have earned over five million dollars a year. In 2005, when his oldest were five-year-olds, and over the course of 140 races, 88 of his get (13 of which were two-year-olds) earned 8 million six hundred thousand dollars. He finished the year as the second top sire in America, beaten only by the now deceased Saint Ballado. By late 2006 he had 255 winners, including 18 graded stakes winners, from 340 starters, siring 46 stakes winners. From five crops, his progeny have earned $30,265,433. In 2006, as a 14-year-old sire, he had 20 different horses win a combined 31 stakes races, 10 of which were graded.>>

And Smarty was from EQ's second crop. So, is that it? Omaha and Street Sense, only first crop Derby winners?

No, I am not seeing a new handicapping angle. I just like trivia. :)

Some guy you never heard of. LOL, he has more knowledge in his left baby finger than you'll ever know. Look up His family tree. His family was winning races before you where even thought of, unbelievable. LOL

He may have been 'Bedazzled' by the fact that all 4 of mum's wins were at less than a mile. But guess what? She only ran at 8f or more on dirt once and was second. They tried her 8 times on turf (APR doesn't give distances) and was placed only twice, but that could be because she didn't like turf. These days, if a midlevel horse is sprinting well, there is no incentive to try them longer because purses are the same and training for distance is harder.

He should have done more than scratched the surface. Bedazzled's SW half-sister Binalegend was by a sprinter Binalong and was able to win a stakes race around two turns, and the second dam was a SW at 9f.

So if he came up last, and he put all these Numbers together, he was the worst of them all.

EOM

Thank you

I don't care if this guy is a Veitch. Bad analysis is still bad analysis. Trying to reduce pedigree analysis to a single number is an excercise in futility, whoever tries it. One would think that with all the data so easily available these days - I remember when to get a mare's produce record I had to look up each of the offspring's races and add up for each year - we would want to look at it all before making judgments. But, no, the customers of Roman or Werk or whomever want one number to describe the complicated and sometimes contradictory information in a pedigree. Boggles the mind.

i think there must be others.

but too much to do today, that is something to put much time and effort into--on a day without house work, yard work calling.

So, you are an expert regarding my knowledge of breeding etc? I didn't know I had a biographer! I don't know of the guy or his family...he could be the Pope for all I know...what I do know is that is a ridiculous statement. Again, others have detailed SS's pedigree...he has plenty of stamina in his dam side, seven Reines and the Ribot line in her five generation profile to mention just some! Bedazzle is by Dixieland Band out of the His Majesty (C) mare, Majestic Legend...His Majesty, a Classic CDR of some note is the son of the great sire Ribot (CP)...talk to me about class and stamina! His Majesty is also out of the Reine-de-race Flower Bowl, herself the daughter of reine, Flower Bed.
Other reines in Bedazzle's 5 generation family include Boudoir, Miss Disco, Delta Queen, Evening Mist, and Teresina.

oh come now somer, quit displaying your lack of knowledge!:rolleyes:


lol, i surely hope you know i'm just kidding you!!

I know Mrs Z, I stopped posting a lot of pedigree stuff a few years ago cause frankly most folks aren't that interested and unless you study the stuff, it makes little sense. Besides, folks can go to Dr Roman's site or read other real experts and get a better explanation than I can give. Back when Brock, Dragon and others were here (actually at ESPN) a lot, we had some good threads but there are always those who just don't want to hear it and I respect that...still, I'm not gonna sit back when someone makes a statement that is simply wrong. I believe that stamina does come primarily from the dam side but Street Sense certainly is not suffering in that regard.

see, i enjoy pedigrees and going over them. fascinating to me. but yeah, not for everyone.

The bottom line here is that the original poster is just flat out WRONG.
Street Sense's 10f pedigree is perfectly acceptable, and anyone with half a brain knew that before the race. His sire won the richest 10f race in the WORLD for Christ's sake.
That post is absolutely ridiculous.

Certainly...I do look closely at dam side so that's a point of discussion but as documented by several folks here, his dam side is well stocked with stamina influences.

not only did the best pedigree win , it came in 1,2
 

pedigree in order - Running style

SS - late
HS - Early
NOBIZ - early
Liquidity - early
BwanaBull - nonexistant

No one is going to wire the derby this year. A speed horse always takes the lead into the lane and then is passed mid-stretch by the winner. The Speed horse finishes at least 3rd. Toss Liquidity and BwanaBull from all tickets. Nobiz shows that he flattens out, not fast enough. Leaves speed (HardSpun=maybe,curlin-maybe,Stormello-longshot,Scatdaddy-longshot) winner(SS-maybe,Curlin-maybe,CQ-longshot,Tiago-longshot)

Whoever the guy was that thought Street Sense had the worst pedigree in the race---either he, or his numerical system, is nuts.

The mother was a very solid horse, the sire had an OUTSTANDING freshman crop, and certainly the horse is bred to get a distance.

From a pedigree standpoint, the worst horse in the race to see out the 10 furlong distance was Stormello. And the horse with the worst overall pedigree in the race was I'mawildandcrazy guy...who was by Wild Event out of an unraced Top Account mare.

yeah, i went to check on imawild's pedigree after he finished fourth....thought well i'd have never seen that coming!
always a long shot to come in near the top, the trick is figuring out which one.

I was talking to Brian about his pedigree last night... seeing Laughter in his 4th generation is kind of interesting.

This pedigree analysis is slanted as well. If a horse that is not supposed to get the distance and does, then one goes back and reanalayzes and finds that a distant relative did fine at distance. Yea, thats the ticket, that explains it.

And if a horse that by whoevers method, is supposed to get distance and turns out to be a sprinter, some go back, and find a sprinter somewhere in the line... ahhh yes, there it is, his great grandmother.

The really good tools to analyze this stuff with some degree of certainty are not here yet.

Every advertisment I look at for breeding in the DRF boasts about Grade I winner. Then the foals run poorly and the "new" horse now advertised by the breeder(farm) is one that had progeny that are grade 1 winners. Nothing about how many broke down, % that never even made it to the track, just the success stories. Quite amazing and so inexact. On most of these horses we have no idea what the rest of their foals have done

For those of you who remember Alvin Robertson, a very good basketball player, defensive allstar, apparently often in trouble with the law. His daughter plays on my daughters HS basketball team. Alvin was 6'3", a fantastic athlete. His daughter is 5'5". My daughter is 5'7", taller than my wife and I. Alldistrict as a 10th and 11th grader. Alvins daughter has not made it to the varsity yet. Genetics is a crazy thing.

I have read Dr. Romans site and it is a very noble attempt to put some rigorous statistical data together to try and make sense of a very difficult thing. So climbing on each others pedigree experts seems like a tenuous duty.

I have beat this to death in the past so I will stop. I will go with Somer's breed the best with the best (and I will add hope they have as little genetic background in common as possible) and hope for the best. The trouble is determing the best.

I won't argue that Stormello was among those most likely to be calling a taxi at the eighth-pole, but Teufelsberg gets a special award for being inbred to the family of Johannesburg, Minardi, Tale of the Cat, Pulpit, none of which could last out the 10f. Then he goes out in 1:16 for the 6f in the Blue Grass and STILL couldn't hold on. Imagine what Hard Spun could have done with a 1:16+?

As to 'crazy guy', his sire Wild Event won a G1 on turf, winning from 8f to 12f, and is already the sire of a Derby winner, Eu Tambem, winner of the 2006/7 Argentine Derby at 2500m (12.5f) on dirt; he is by top sire Wild Again and a half-brother to G1 winners Paradise Creek and Forbidden Apple. Top Account won the King's Bishop at Saratoga when it was G2, placed in the Jerome and NYRA Mile (G1), by Private Account out of G2 winner Up the Flagpole and a half-brother to 3 G1 winners plus 3 other SWs. Crazy Guy's female family isn't fashionable but is solid - lots of runners and winners, with a sprinkling of SWs (Din's Dancer, G1-placed SW of over $1/2 million, e.g.). I wouldn't call this a bad pedigree at all.

As far as which pedigree in the race was the most unattractive commercially, The two Bill Kaplan trained horses were 1-2...with the edge going to the eventual 4th place finisher.

You mention the pace of the Bluegrass---but that was over that phony surface--Street Sense got ran down from behind in that race, by a horse (Dominican) who was very rank through the early stages.

But yeah, the Jamie Sanders horse wasn't exactly stoutly bred, that's for sure

it would have been fun to have a ped analysis thread prior to the derby...maybe for the preakness.