Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Ok, Derby horses with a chance and opinions ( I'll go alphabetically )...
Any Given Saturday - absolutely can win. He is one of only three horses in this field with two triple digit Beyer figs ( says a LOT about the overall quality of this crew ). He has lost photos to arguably the best 2YOs of 2006 ( Street Sense and Tis Wonderful ) and was against the track in the Wood. No doubt his Wood was disappointing, and make no mistake he was ridden VERY hard in this race, but he has run two to three races better than many here and will be a square price.
Circular Quay - He can win but I am no fan. He had an identical trip in the BC Juvie to Street Sense, save being on the rail, and lost by ten lengths. Even if you give Street Sense as much as four or five lengths edge because of the rail it was a thrashing. His Louisiana Derby was an optical illusion, as it was a strong pace that collapsed, with the second place finisher running a MUCH better race. He is certainly a contender because of the lack of true quality going into the race but he is suspect at the distance, suspect in overall ability, and the eight weeks off is certainly cause for pause. Not running a horse because you fear him coming into the Derby off a " double top " is a new one to me.
Curlin - Obviously talented but his lack of seasoning is a major concern. He beat crows and also rans in his last, and as Sniper pointed out had Ketchikan run he might have beaten him by a length or so, and suddenly wouldn't appear to have been so dominent. Quite a few in this race will beat Storm in May by more than 10 1/2 lengths. Showing Up came into this race last year, albeit against a stronger group, with similar credentials and shocked many while running a strong sixth. Not worth a short price.
Dominican - A minor contender if only because we have no idea if he can run a good race on dirt. He has improved dramatically since being gelded but is that enough to make up the six plus lengths he lost by to Any Given Saturday in his last dirt race? He has tactical speed, which is always a plus, but my best guess is he's simply not good enough.
Great Hunter - If you believe his Beyer fig in the RB Lewis, which I don't, then he has a race fast enough this year to put him in the mix. He is also third off the layoff and did have a bit of trouble in the Blue Grass ( though I think if he had any horse he would have fought his way through it ). While he ran OK last year, he got a great trip in the Breeder's Futurity ands simply does not have a resume of fast races.
Hard Spun - the most poorly handled horse on the Triple Crown trail. He clearly has talent, though how much is questionable, and his standout race is on Polytrack. His Southwest is better than it looks, as he was against the track and still ran well, but he also comes into this race off six weeks of indecision. I still keep hearing his silly connections saying the Derby would be a great prep for the Preakness. His terrific tactical speed may be his best asset and his best race would put him in the mix. However, horses entered in the Derby coming off poor planning are never good bets and he certainly won't be great value.
Nobiz Like Shobiz - a very talented colt with bad habits who has run almost exactly the same race in each of his six starts. Seems very unlikely to have a breakout performance and is another whose odds will not reflect his chances of winning. His best asset, aside from obvious talent, may be his trainer who I consider as good as any in the game. To me, however, at least one horse will really improve as always happens Derby Day, and that will leave Nobiz with too much to do.
Sam P. - most likely too slow, and I already mentioned my skepticism about the RB Lewis fig, but he was the best horse in the SA Derby ( for whatever that may be worth ) and is thus one of few coming into this race with mildly darkened form. He seems to be improving at the very least and while he is most likely behind too many horses to leapfrog them all into the winner's circle he seems to me to be as viable a longshot as there is in the race. At 30-1 or more he is worth including.
Scat Daddy - like Nobiz he is clearly talented, and as accomplished as any here, but also consistent and too slow. Nothing about his record indicates that he is ready for a breakout performance and he may have some distance limitations as well. He is simply not good enough. On the plus side he always seems to give a good account of himself ( his ride in the BC Juvenile was poorly timed at best ). However, that good account looks not good enough here.
Street Sense - Along with Curlin and Any Given Saturday he boasts two triple digit Beyer figs. His BC Juvenile was sensational, even if you include his perfect trip, and his comeback race was also good. The Blue Grass is irrelevent, though he ran fine, and he is clearly a top contender. However, I still remain concerned that he does his best running on the rail and you surely can't count on him getting that candy trip in the Derby. However, he is accomplished and seasoned ( at least in terms of this Derby ), and is absolutely one of the main horses to beat.
Tiago - a total X factor, as he has only one race even worth mentioning, and that was set up by a totally collapsing pace. But, he still ran well, and certainly has room to improve. However, he has little more seasoning than Curlin, and less talent, but at least he'll be four or five times the price. I still, however, think Sam P. ran better in the SA Derby and HE will be twice the price of Tiago.
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