Curlin
 

Even without the post draw, everyone is looking for reasons to not play him. Reason number one is asking him to win the Derby in his fourth start. Number two is lack of quality that he has beaten. The third is not willing to take the low odds on him.The most valid as far as im concerned is that Albarado will lose it. All this said it looks to me he is what he is and will smoke them. Maybe he will regress sometime but all he has done is improve so far. He looks as if he will continue to improve.

I can only hope that people keep looking to beat this horse, leaving better odds for me. Agree with you, the only two negatives I see at this point is Albarado and the possibility of getting a really bad post. I don't mind that he hasn't raced against the greastest competition, he has blown away everything thrown at him. Other than the Bluegrass, a race in which the results have given me nothing to use in factoring the derby, who has faced really good competition? Didn't a horse named Bernardini come into the Preakness last year off a similar record?

Say what you will about Albarado, he's hot this year, has won 4 of the main Derby preps on 3 different horses. (Notional, Curlin, Slew's Tizzy).

Who has faced good competition?
Scat Daddy, Stormello, Circular Quay, Great Hunter, Any Given Saturday, Street Sense, Nobiz Like Shobiz, Dominican, and just about every other horse in the field.

Curlin has a ton of talent, but running past Flying First Class and Deadly Dealer is not the same as going 1-1/4 miles against 19 other horses, many of whom have been through the wars and are battle tested.

Curlin is joining the ranks of Afleet Alex and Bernardini for most threads ever about one horse. Perhaps there can be a "Curlin" section in the main forum?

Curlin = Showing Up

Just my two cents.

Curlin = not ready for 10 furlongs.

You think that Scat Daddy is? I'd take Curlin at ten furlongs way before I'd take Scat Daddy.

If you read my post correctly, I excluded the Bluegrass. However, was the Florida Derby, Louisiana Derby and the Wood really strong fields? My point is that I don't think that it is a knock on Curlin that he hasn't faced strong competition when he has blown everything away that he has faced. Your point on being "battle tested" could be valid, but I think that is a little overrated as well. I see nothing wrong with what Curlin has done, especially the professional way he ran in the Arkansas Derby. If people want to throw him out, that is fine with me.

Not me... I'll admit I'm concerned about Scat Daddy getting that last 1/8th of a mile, but I think he'll be at the wire before Curlin.

Fair enough. I don't think there's any median opinion on Curlin. Everyone seems to either think he'll win or get trounced.

The only horse on Curlin's par of facing lesser competition is Hard Spun. Both have only faced two potential entrants into the Derby including a common opponent of Teuflesberger.

And which horse pointing to the race looked better than him at 9 furlongs?

Possibly Tiago; and maybe the super horses that ran in the Bluegrass. But you have a pt.

Another 1/8th surely did not look like a problem to me for Curlin off his last.

Turf races don't count.

You are really not helping me get a price on Curlin.

I don't get the issue with Albarado? He has been great this year so far. It's truly hard to find many that have been riding better than him. What else could he do for some of you to not look at him as a negative? I know that he hasn't always been that good, but man he is on fire this year.

I think it is between him and Street Sense.

That's the biggest reason for me

Agreed!

Once again...I agree!

Curlin improved in the Arkansas Derby in terms of raw fractions vs the 8.5furlong Rebel. Some of that was due to the trip but it was impressive. Curlin actually came home the last 3 furlongs in the Arkansas faster than Tiago came home the last three in the Santa Anita.

I think Curlin will be right with the best horses on Derby day, I don't expect him to win, but it wouldn't be shocked.

........ i hear that, this horse along with S.S. look to be the 2 that will STILL be running ater 9 furlongs.

I think that Curlin does not deserve squat right now. If he wins the derby, then he gets my full respect.

To think of this guy being a ML favorite after 3 races, even if he has impressed.

I say this cause, SmartyJones destroyed opposition as a 2year old. 2-5 fav in the count fleet, no problem. Swept the Oaklawn meet and still went off at 5-1(ml 9/2).

So Curlin has no excuse to be anything under 8-1 IMO. If he wins good for him, but his odds have to be justified.

Anyone who doubts Curlin's ability better review the start of the AK Derby. Watch how he uses his tactical speed to establish his path. A lessor horse might not have had the turn of foot OR the guts to dominate the path he chose. Curlin easily could have been squeezed back if he was faint of heart...but he got his position.

Then he relaxed.

Then he turned it up a notch and took off.

He's my pick and has been since the Rebel. Too bad about the odds, but so far I have some hope...he's no better than #4 on most nat'l. handicapper's lists.

I'm glad that you mentioned tactical speed, that is something that I also think that this horse has and tactical speed wins a lot of races, including derbies. Of course, nothing is definitive until the race is drawn, but I think that if Curlin gets a descent post he has the tactical speed to get a clear trip and has shown he has enough to get home, don't see the extra furlong being a problem.

He seems to be no. 1 on the public's list, however.

The only way his post will hurt him is f he gets wipped out comming out of the gate. His speed wil enable him to get position and relax.With all of these horses experience and maturity, none are more profesional on the track. Even with just three races he races more maturely than any have. The only way you can tell he only has had only three races is by looking at his record. If you look at his record all you can see is a profesional very good colt that noone has found a way to beat.

You are right. But he will be running against 19 horses this time and his odds are supposed to be around 4/1? That just does not work for me. Even if he does win, I would not feel bad about not betting him. This race has a number of other horses that can win imo and they will pay off much better. Just gotta try to find that horse. I have it narrowed to 4, and the longest odds will get the money.

I hope Curlin blows them away though. He does look very, very good. And I want to see a very good horse again. I mean can you imagine if he actually won the TC in stunning style, and then took on a once beaten Invasor in the BCC. Would be great for racing, in the short term anyway. What a day that would make. To dream...

Yes, and you would be wondering how you managed to talk yourself out of the most obvious horse on the board.

Except of course he'd be retired as soon as he left the Belmont winner's circle so there wouldn't be a Breeder's Cup for him. :(

Hindsight its a wonderful thing.
I dont dwell on that. I try not to bet using hope. Risk v. reward as always. I will remember how I feel about Curlin's chances right now. Not after a pipe dream comes true.

A few posters brought up Curlin's professionalism an how he seems far more experienced than his competiton.

With this in mind, I have no problem at this point buying a ticket on him no matter what the odds. I think he can win and it is entirely possible he's TC material--compared to this group.

At the end of the day, I just want to know I have a souvenir ticket in my wallet just in case.

I would be shocked if a horse with such little foundation even competed in all three Triple Crown races.

Cruised past without much urging is more like it. Wait'll Albarado uses the stick if he has to, can you say...explosion? He's the real deal.

How sound is the reasoning when you want bet the horse you think will win just because of his odds? Isnt it better to figure how to bet him to get the best return. Multi race, multi horse, or a large bet straight up win place or show. Betting a loser with longer odds is a losing proposition. If you think a longer odds horse is the winner, thats another proposition.Pick the winner and make the best bet according to the odds.Im sure I will have some bets with and without Curlin but he want be eliminated because of his odds . Only the type of bet I make on him.

Would Curlin Have more or less backing if the original conections still had him and Asmusens clients hadent shelled out the money for a late bloming 3yr old?

Where did I say I thought he would win? I said I hope he wins. For one main reason. This horse has made this Derby fun for me. Nothing to do with money. I really dont know what is going to happen in this stampede. I infrequently put money in the Derby and have already posted which 4 the money will most likely fall on.

Cajun...

want to do another head to head bet? I'll take Curlin you take Scat Diddy... $15?

Forget the $$ part... Scat Daddy finishes in front of Curlin, you buy me a couple of drinks. Curlin finishes in front of Scat Daddy, you buy me a couple of drinks. I'm liking the sounds of this! LOL :D