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grab some sack..a bettors opinion
i think there is alot of quality info out there sheets , tgs ,drf/formulater. pace figs aio....but if you think about it..it can be really confusing to the medium player...by that i mean a guy that puts his time in reads every book in hopes of gaining an advantage, in the end i think hard lesssons on bad beats makes you a better player ..capping great and betting bad ruins more people than enron...lets say you have a horse you like ALOT..he goes off at 5-1 and rolls for the win...did you..
a/ play him to win b/ play him in exotics..ext c bet him to show d dump on him as your play of the day..use that horse as the light of god betting wise ..key him in pick 3s 4s wheel the ext tri super.. just back your opinion to the fullest..... the person who chose d will buy far get the most out of his betting buck you may get hit 7 out out of 10 times but those three times you will make more than the losers.....grab some sack aka BALLS and repect your opinion enough to use the advantage you percieve to get payed at this game.. i know im no rocket scientist.. but i hope this will help dters get the point.. hooves..maybee some of the pros like andy and steve can chime in... |
Hooves,
We see alot of great picks out of you. Tell me, do you make good money playing the ponies? Do you do it for a living? What would you say your ROI is? I know you're far better than me at this sport. Spyder |
Hooves, you make a good point. But the problem is bankroll. How much of your day's bankroll will you put on that horse? For example, you start with $1000, the horse you are talking about is in the 2nd race, how much should you wager?
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that race or the race you like should be tied in ..in all plays max your advantage..id say with 1000 buck is high for the rec player..
300 win 200 ect key x 2 ,,,,1 key with 3/4. =.400 thats 700 in tri key 50 buck key 1 over 3/4 100 bucks pick 3 and 4 15 or 20 x if the light shines on you this day be ready to soak it in... |
I just chose $1000 because it's an even number, and once again this is the entire day's bankroll.. so let me get this straight...are you saying that one should use his entire bankroll for the day on this one race? Or does it come out to approx $800 or $900?
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im saying that you should
a. pound your best play of the day b tie that horse in exotics c be smart if this is your best play of the day why not take full advantage of it..no matter what the race is..the other bets are action bets..real players that do this for a living dont make action bets..they may wait in the wings till they get what they think is a play..then like sharks to blood they destroy that horse ..in the three 4 and exotics..max ing out the advantage.. |
This is excellent advice, and as your thread title indicates, it does take "Balls" to do it. But since my wagering is far worse than my handicapping, I think I'll give it a try:)
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Bro.....
I can't really argue with any of that, if you got the funds go for it! Nothing wrong with having a strong opinion on a particular race or horse, and making as many plays as you can afford around that.
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I got a bad habit of betting for action, I need to learn how to sit on it....sometimes hooves' theory doesn't necessarily cross my mind until I need a "get out." :) Has worked quite a few times.
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Excellent advice hooves. it doesnt matter if your playing for a 100 or a 1000. If its your best bet of the day, the greatest portion of your bankroll should be on it.
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hooves, when you say best play of the day, I assume you just mean the horse you consider to be the biggest lock (most likely to win, without regard to odds). Right? Because most of time, that horse is going to be less than 3-1, maybe 5/2 or less. If that's the case, I still agree with what you're saying. 5/2 on a couple hundred is a VERY nice return. Try doing that in the stock market, it'll take you a year at the least...unless you're trading options or penny stocks on "advice.":D
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Hey Hooves
I think I know what you are saying. I've done this a million times. I'm not up in the calibar of you or some of the other guys in here, but I'm not a bad handicapper. The problem is...I'm a bad bettor. Too often I'm looking for a price. So, instead of hammering something I really like at say 2-1, 3-1, or 7/2, I'll try to beat it with something else because I don't like the price. On the other hand, I'll love a horse that's 35-1 or higher, but not have the BALLS to put it on top. It's something I'm really trying to change about my betting patterns.
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Precisely, You start playing races where you have no real opinion just because you want some action. Which if all you want is entertainment, then by all means action bet away. But if your actually trying to make a little money, Your bankroll has to put on the horse you like the best. I find its also a good acid test. If i brought 200 with me and and i'm going to bet 150 of it on a horse, i better feel pretty strong. What it comes down to is, if you cant believe in your capping and your best bet of they day your going to lose money long-term. I'm still learning that lesson, but its gets better every day.
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Jman,
I won't speak for hooves, but for me personally, my best bet is the horse that i think has the greatest shot of winning at odds greater then 2-1. Pounding chalk just doesn't work. To me it doesnt matter if the horse is 2-1 or 10-1. If im that sure the horse is going to win i will hammer it. Saying that horses that i love at 10-1 are greater are few and far between. Most of my locks come between 7/2 and 5-1. |
I pounded chalk on Curlin in the Ark Derby at even odds. He was the biggest lock of the day. But, it was more of a get out than it was a "strategic" play of the day. It depends on the chalk...some are worth putting a little more of your bankroll on because of their lower odds. To get the return you want.
A wise sage once told me, ask yourself, "How much money do you want to make today?" Take your best horse, decide how much you need to bet to make that and lay it down. Over time it should be a winning strategy. At least a break even strategy ;) |
I had a small wager also, I'm just not a big fan of betting short price horses to win. I went after the exacta.
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the horse dont know the odds...fire away..and yes that play ..if hes 7/2 is good if he ....
can be tied into a exotic bet..ext 7/2 over a 4-1 ect pick 3 6-1 over a 9-1 with your best play.. there is value witha shorter price out there ..this all depends on the card....lets go get the pick 3 and exotic bets tieing in curlin at ark derby..then we can talk about it.. |
the late pick 3 payed 148.00 the pick 4 payed 1,900..yes there were a few long horses in that deal but..wide wide single two wide gets it.. i played theo the super and was thrilled it payed 396 for a buck..again if you keyed the winner ....
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Thats where i think you make money on shorter priced horses. If you can find some juicy odds below you can make a great day. I hit the super in the 8th at keenland and look what it payed. With a short priced horse on top.
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I have really started to enjoy playing the pick4 as my "action" plays most days. Instead of dumping a lot of money into exotics every race I have been trying to go through the PP's with an eye out for the 1 or maybe 2 plays to make outside the pk4.
When I can adhear to that, I find I do much better. Definitley strong guidance to focus on those plays and take your lumps when you are wrong as apposed to trying to cream every race. Something I need to remind myself often... I am ceratinly still working on a winning strategy. |
No doubt pmac. I am by no means an expert handicapper, but i learn everyday, and really i think thats probably the best foundation you can have. Lessons learned the hard way are not easily forgotten. When i first started off i played every race, all that i could find. Now, I'm down to 3 or 4 races off a card. Its really tough to stick to that and sometimes i fall off the wagon :)
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Hooves when you have a strong favorite (curling for ex.) and you play the pick 4, are you typically making multiple ticket wagers with diffrent variations of horses are you more apt to play one ticket for more money?
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maiden spec wt,, lots of firsters and good win early breeding..then you see the t pleach that is a second starter with great works ect..so all that looking for the upset,,and the winner is the pleacher he is now 4-1...so ill try to beat him on one tick.. but ill use him in my larger less wide tix.. |
makes sense, i read andy's little deal about how he makes his pick 4 wagers. A very interesting subject that i know very little about.
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Obviously, everyone has a diffrent angle on how they wager. If everyone bet the same way it wouldn't be parimutual. I just try to assimilate as much information as possible and find ways to use that in my assessment of horses and wagers to maximize my return.
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"you can beat a race but you can't beat the races."
I am an ok handicapper and a terrible bettor. I can get 2 out of 3 on just about every bet there is. I get beat by 1 horse 99% of the time. The last time I was a winner was the Breeder's Cup. The biggest bet I've made on a horse race was a $300 exacta. Didn't box it and should have. After a few beats like that I quit loading up and just throw it around like chicken feed and hope the longest part gets there just so I can play the whole day and make it out of the OTB with my life. I know there are people that only talk about winning and don't say anything about losing. The most successful bettors I know fall in two categories. The everything on one horse bettor. Win or lose they are in and out the door on 1 play. The other kind are the pick 3, pick 4 and the playable pick 6 bettors. It takes a big bankroll but when they hit, it's tax form city. I play exactas, trifectas, Superfectas and only bet WPS on horses that are 20-1 or better. I've had to sign a tax form on every wager except the pick 4 and pick 6... Mainly because I've never hit one. Guess I should play Hooves picks too late ;) |
good info guys.
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Just so all of you know, this thread is a thinly veiled shot at me. Hooves thinks that I should be a millionaire, but that I don't bet right.
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A little flexibility can be important also. Sometimes I think I know what my big play is going to be but the public pounds the play making it not worth it. I always have some other plays ready and everyonce in a great while a horse that I think is going to go off at horrible odds becomes the play of the day. Here of course is the where most people do not trust themselves (and maybe they should not)... they start asking whats wrong with the horse, what happened to the track, did the jock get sick, Im out of the loop. That is where the confidence needs to kick in, not self doubt. And if there is no play, I just enjoy the races themselves.
I still think the biggest problem is the desire to play too many races. 'I bought the form, I spent a good piece of time capping this race, by God im going to play it' even if the reward as determined by the public, is not worth the risk I see. This is the major downfall of most horse players I have talked to. But I am still in experimental mode. Once I get some time to really study... and I must say the polytrack is really exciting because it has so many people upset. I just gotta make a trip in the summer and check it out. In the meantime I play small with some exceptions, and am highly entertained. I must say that a couple of times when I had the same horse as hooves, it made me a bit more confident in my play. I really try to make my own mistakes though. |
Just a small point to add to the discussion would be that there are probably less than a handful of days during the year that the pure volume of handle can make a strong play like Matt is advocating a life changing score. You get mega payoff if you can hit a big race at moderate odds if you can take down a tri or even in some cases exacta.
For myself my strongest moment in the game so far was being lucky enough to key the Preakness last year as a play against the derby winner. By keying Bernadini/Saint against the field 200 dollar exacta and 75 dollar tri literally paid well into 6 figures on a) very solid horses b) betting against a favorite out of the money 3) playing a triple crown race where the handle is 8 figures You dont have to win it all to win an incredible amount of money if your right. The winner only paid $28 but the exacta paid $171 and the Tri paid almost 4 thousand for 2. Sometimes volume works heavily in your favor. |
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Hooves , This is a good thread. Im sure Im not the only one who has come home from the track with a decent profit and still feel like a loser because I didnt properly play the race I liked the most. KP
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Short rest asking for the surperior effort again on two weeks rest......if I am wrong it's just one of many stupid (losing) wagers you make over the course of a year but if you don't take on the giants at shorter odds (0.50 that day) you can't reach for the ring.
Will I ever know if he would have smoked that field....of course not but it doesn't matter all your looking for is an angle with a reasonable chance of (> than 5-10% of covering) How many horses who win the derby fail to win the preakness? It's not the horse but the situation and it will happen again this year when a superior horse will be short odds on short rest and the public will still bet it down to almost nothing. And if they take my several hundred for a chance at a hundred thousand so be it... |
This is a monsterously broad topic that has unlimited answers that apply individually but only one that applies universally: Play horses you 'like'.
The difficulty with a standard application of a betting formula of any kind stems from the fact that the casual player has varying degrees of motivation, time and opportunity when it comes to his or her horseplaying. Because of that, the casual player generally is betting too many races on their race-playing days to be especially successful long term. The discipline to only play horses that you identify as most likely winners is only the first part of the equation. From that point. you then have to decide what an acceptable price is on that horse for you to be involved as well as how you want to utilize that horse or those horses. Handicapping will lead you to horses in every single race that you believe are the most likely winners. If one 3-1 and one is 8-1, where do you go from there? Do you key both in tris? Do you box them for exactas going heavier with the lower price on top? Do you use the pair as part of the foundation for P3 or P4 plays? Do you bet both to win? No one can answer that for you because each player has to apply their own style of play and personal price-value ratio to their investment strategy. Hooves' style of play is exceedingly unique and not for everyone. To utilize some baseball analogy, he is very much like Adam Dunn of the Reds. He may bat .246 on the year with 170 strikeouts, but hits 47 home runs and drives in 118 runs. His 'production' makes him a success. Like Dunn, he maintains a high confidence level that allows him to go to bat each time thinking he's going yard in that at bat, and doesn't allow the days with 3 K's in 4 at bats to shake his confidence. Does that make him better or worse than an 'Ichiro' type horseplayer who gets 215 hits for a .366 average but with few home runs and far fewer RBI? It doesn't make him better or worse... Both are successful. The Ichiro horseplayer takes lower prices and bets them conservatively and ekes out out a steady profit. The Dunn horseplayer is prone to pendulum swinging streaks of misses and scores where the longshot prices of the scores more than offsets the misses. And as in this analogy, 'taking pitches' is the key. Dunn goes to the plate with the attitude that every any pitch near the plate is hittable and swings accordingly. Ichiro is content to take pitch after pitch waiting for a pitcher's mistake before swinging. That is the same as approaching every race as playable versus being willing to accept a 'walk' by passing a race and looking forward to your next at bat. A fat pitch coming in looking like a grapefruit is a horse you like. If you're an Adam Dunn, there's a pitch every at bat that looks fat and if you're Ichiro, there's maybe one pitch a day that looks fat. What are you looking to do? (i.e. singling to move runners up = getting through the leg of a P4.. Tying the game in the bottom of the ninth with a solo homer, etc..). The fact is that being a horseplayer is a lot like being a baseball player. It's a long season or career.. They play 162 games a year in baseball and that may be about how many times a casual fan plays races (about once every 2 days on average over the course of the year). What you do in your last at bat (that one day) isn't important. "Getting even" on the day is not important. There is no 'bet of the day' just as there is no 'at bat of the day' for a baseball player. You swing at pitches you like and if you don't see a pitch worth swinging at for three straight games (or 12 straight races), so be it. If you're in a groove you swing at everything and everything is a double off the wall or carries out of the park. When you're in a funk, it doesn't matter what you're doing, you miss everything or you line out viciously to the shortstop. The important thing is that you're going to take the field tomorrow and get the same chances you had today. You're looking to be put up Hall of Fame numbers OVER A LIFETIME. Like baseball, horseplaying is a game of redeeming qualities. Identifying what you do best and having confidence in your attributes as a player is all that matters. No one should be adjusting your stance or tinkering with your swing. The only good advice is simply to maximize your pitch selection, accept bases on balls when they're offered and swing when you see something you like. Remember that Rod Carew AND Harmen Killabrew are both in the Hall of Fame, though both took entirely different routes to get there. |
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