How much time will you spend capping the Derby
 

As the clock clicks down to Derby day, what would you say will be the total time you will spend capping, reviewing races, and analyizing the Derby? (Not including looking back at the form after the race to confirm you screwed up by forgetting a fine point that would have won you big $$$$$ if you would have just........)

I think I'll spend somewhere aroun 5-6 hours.

Spyder

two days

the day I get the PP's and the day of the derby.

One to find the contenders
and then on Derby day to find the track bias

zero time.. i'll just edit my post after the race and head to the cyber teller to cash my tickets!!

2-3 hours before Derby Day. Then as you mentioned, making adjustments based on the track, weather, et. all on Saturday.

No more than any other race on any other day.

Spent enough already! After the post draw on the Wednesday before...I will have made up my mind who I've picked.
Now, from a "wagering" standpoint...that's a different story.

I started capping when CQ and Cobalt blue won there Maiden races. They were the first two that I thought were the real deal. I agreed with Oras evaluation of CQ. After CBs maiden win most posters here felt he was below the best out west, I actually watch 2yr old races with an eye for the roses.

I think with any stakes race of this caliber you already know so much about the entrants that the bulk of your capping is done by the time post positions are drawn.

I like to generally look at the contenders, watch some video of them. Pretty much general entertainment. If you add it up, about 4-5 hours.

I used to think this way too. But from a handicapping perspective....it actually doesn't make a lot of sense. The Derby offers the best opportunity for a good handicapper to make money all year because of the size of the field and the amount of money that goes into the pools from people who don't have a clue.
I will start handicapping it the day before.....and do a bit more on DerbyDay itself. All together it will probably take me somewhere in the neighborhood of eight hours. That is a bit longer than I spend on most races!!
And they are among my favorite eight hours of the entire year.

Between 50-100 hours.

I've been handicapping this race since the day Nobiz was born.

It does make sense to me. I am not going to change up what I do and dive in for one race. I can count how many Supers I have played in my lifetime on one hand. I play Pick 3's, 4's and 6's, it's what I do and what I am best at. I will spend just as much time on the undercard as well as the two races after the Derby as the Derby itself. Hell, I will probably spend less time on the Derby because I have already seen the preps and pretty much know who I like. It will just be a matter of deciding how many I put on the ticket and that will be a function of who I like in the other races in the sequence.

i WILL STUDY 10-20 HOURS TOTAL ON THE WHOLE CARD WITH MORE THAN HALF OF THAT ON THE DERBY ITSELF

Depends on how many cervezas I drink.

All kidding aside, I'll probably spend a few hours on it and before I really get started, I want to find out which horse is coming out of the 9 hole. :p

I'm pretty much constantly capping the race in my head. Don't think I will spend much time at all on the Derby as race day approaches, I'll spend more time on the other races where I'm not quite so familiar with the horses. I will go back and watch some replays of horses like Dominican (especially on dirt) that I haven't been following all along but that is about it.

I don't disagree with you there....for the most part.
I agree that it is a good idea to stick with what you are best at. If you aren't a Super player (I'm not either) it doesn't make sense to try to become one for one day. But I still think it makes sense to spend more time with the derby because the opportunity to make money is greater no matter how you play. Even if a person is just a "straight win" player, there is usually an opportunity to make a lot of money on this race because of the size of the field and the large number of idiots betting the race. I say, the more opportunity there is to make cash, the more time I am willing to devote to it.

The longer you spend capping it the less you are earning per hour.

As long as it takes to bet an online $10 x box on Curlin, Cowtown Cat and Scat Daddy!

I've essentially been capping the derby for a few months so at this point it's just formulating bets and looking at post positions. . .

Those are three of my tosses. . . Good luck. . .

Toss Scat Daddy at your own risk. :p

Excellent! Hoping for more that will toss 'em! Ramp up the probables!

Unfortunately I don't think that's the case. . . Curlin will be the chalk and Scat Daddy will be the favored Pletcher horse- even though he's his third string (making Cowtown Cat his fourth string). . .

I think it makes sense to take more time on this race than any other because of the opportunities to make more money. I also think this is a race where it pays to "stretch" a little bit in your usual betting strategies, again because of the opportunities to make a hell of a lot more money. If you're a "straight win" bettor, place a little money on the exacta or pick 3. The payoffs are HUGE.

I probably spend too much time on this race. But I also have a huge grin on my face while I'm doing it. It's a lot of fun just trying to figure out all the angles and trying to navigate through the b.s. And then there's all the arguing and gloating/sulking with my handicapping friends (mostly sulking).

For me the real answer is....however long it takes for me to talk myself out of including the eventual winner in any of my exactas.

See, I usually bet Pick 3s and 4s that include the Derby, but I've been thinking it over, and it really makes no sense to put so much effort into handicapping one race and very little effort (relatively) into 'capping races that will be equally important to the Pick 3 and 4 wagers. This year, I'll probably be playing inside the race only unless I see some can't miss play in one of the other races.

I've been handicapping since January 1. I'm still deciding if I will bet exotics or across the board. But, how I bet will depend largely on the arrival of my Illinois state tax refund in my checking account. The federal refund will come just in time for Breeders Cup. :)

I got mine in February... it's gone already. LOL

Now why does that not surprise me?:p

Who did your taxes? Al Capones CPA?

I do them. Mine are easy, though... nothing to itemize anymore since I lease my house. :D

Yup! Me too.
Hours?
Far too many.
Now, for the 2-8 spots...I'm doing a kind of "cow flop bingo" with my dog.
I put the names on the sidewalk in chalk. Whereever dear ol' pooch decides to drop his load of undigested lands, I write it down.
I'm paying attention!

Sad,but true!

Wish I could say that. I procrastinate. I didn't get mine done until the first week of April. If I had known I was going to get a gigantor refund from the state and the federal, I would have sent it in January. Next year, I'll do that next year :D

Lucky you...no refund this year for me so I waited to the last day to file...they can wait for my $$$:o

Same thing I would have done. :D

I did that last year, like on the 13th or something. Had to actually save up to pay them off. Got an inherited IRA that really messed up my taxes. So I lowered my withholding status to zero, so the tax hit wouldn't be so bad. I found out I could still pay the bills and go to the track with less money in my paycheck, so I never changed it. Hence, the large refund this year. Would be nice if the Federal government could figure out how to work with less money and lower taxes ;) Enough pontificating from me!

That's the smart way to play it. Unless you have a lock in one of the races and can afford to spread in the others.

I have a friend who bets win/place and exactas, and is constantly telling me he would have had the huge trifecta. I tell him to bet the trifecta, and he tells me he doesn't bet those. :confused:

It only took me ten years to convince him to play the exactas... Maybe I'll have an easier time with the trifectas.

But I don't have the millions like you saved up:p

and YOU were mad about the cost of an airline ticket to Albany? Mere bag of shells for a big timer like you!

My salary is ridiculously low (if you really want to know) and I actually used that refund money to pay off a credit card. Wish I could have blown it on something else, but the credit card was first. Drat! And don't worry... I'll be at Toga. Booked my flight. :p