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ceejay 04-17-2007 10:24 AM

My Derby throw-outs
 
No names yet, just conditions. Throwing out horses who:
  • Do not have their top or second top Beyer last out.
  • Have BSF descending by > 5 points from second last to last out
  • Did not start as a 2yo
By my count none of the last 14 winners met any of these criteria. I may also require a BSF >99 on the PP line: That was only broken by Giacamo in the last 14 KD's.

SniperSB23 04-17-2007 10:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ceejay
No names yet, just conditions. Throwing out horses who:
  • Do not have their top or second top Beyer last out.
  • Have BSF descending by > 5 points from second last to last out
  • Did not start as a 2yo
By my count none of the last 14 winners met any of these criteria. I may also require a BSF >99 on the PP line: That was only broken by Giacamo in the last 14 KD's.

Looks like you are tossing the two favorites right off the bat.

The Indomitable DrugS 04-17-2007 10:40 AM

Here are possible Derby runners who won't be on any of my tickets....

Belgravia
Circular Quay
Cowtown Cat
Liquidity
Officer Rocket
Stormello
Teuflesburg
Tiago
Zanjero

Here are the Derby runners who'll be used only lightly, and only in the 3rd and 4th place positions of some of my exotics.

Chelokee
Domincan

The following will be lightly used...but may appear in the 1st and 2nd slot in one or two of my exotic tickets.

Nobiz Like Shobiz
Sam. P.
Scat Daddy
Street Sense

The following three will appear in all my exotic tickets.

Curlin
Hard Spun
Great Hunter

And Any Given Saturday is my pick to win the race, and who I intend to key in each of the top three slots of my exotic tickets.

ceejay 04-17-2007 10:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23
Looks like you are tossing the two favorites right off the bat.

If Curlin beats me as a 7/2 or so favorite, so be it. I won't take those odds to break a 14+ or actually 125 year trend. I remember Bellamy Road.

I also think that the second choice, Street Sense will be underlaid at ~9/2.

smuthg 04-17-2007 12:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
Here are possible Derby runners who won't be on any of my tickets....

Belgravia
Circular Quay
Cowtown Cat
Liquidity
Officer Rocket
Stormello
Teuflesburg
Tiago
Zanjero

Here are the Derby runners who'll be used only lightly, and only in the 3rd and 4th place positions of some of my exotics.

Chelokee
Domincan

The following will be lightly used...but may appear in the 1st and 2nd slot in one or two of my exotic tickets.

Nobiz Like Shobiz
Sam. P.
Scat Daddy
Street Sense

The following three will appear in all my exotic tickets.

Curlin
Hard Spun
Great Hunter

And Any Given Saturday is my pick to win the race, and who I intend to key in each of the top three slots of my exotic tickets.


Looks like you've got it all figured out to me...

Java Gold 04-17-2007 01:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
Here are possible Derby runners who won't be on any of my tickets....


Belgravia
Circular Quay
Cowtown Cat
Liquidity
Officer Rocket
Stormello
Teuflesburg
Tiago
Zanjero

Here are the Derby runners who'll be used only lightly, and only in the 3rd and 4th place positions of some of my exotics.

Chelokee
Domincan

The following will be lightly used...but may appear in the 1st and 2nd slot in one or two of my exotic tickets.

Nobiz Like Shobiz
Sam. P.
Scat Daddy
Street Sense

The following three will appear in all my exotic tickets.

Curlin
Hard Spun
Great Hunter

And Any Given Saturday is my pick to win the race, and who I intend to key in each of the top three slots of my exotic tickets.

I wish for 10 minutes on May 5th I could transform into a betting window in front of you...

Java OUT

hockey2315 04-17-2007 01:10 PM

I REALLY wanna toss Curlin. . . but. . . I am almost positive that he's the most talented horse in the race, and I think he MAY have the immense amount of talent it would take to overcome a severe lack of foundation/experience. . . 7/2 is making it easier for me to toss him though. . .

Mortimer 04-17-2007 01:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by smuthg
Looks like you've got it all figured out to me...


He thought he had tether ball figured out,too.

SentToStud 04-17-2007 01:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Java Gold
I wish for 10 minutes on May 5th I could transform into a betting window in front of you...

Java OUT

That's fairly classless of you.

You must still be pissed off about Cobalt Blue. How'd you do there?

blackthroatedwind 04-17-2007 01:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SentToStud
That's fairly classless of you.

You must still be pissed off about Cobalt Blue. How'd you do there?

When I read that post I couldn't help but think of the line from " Positively 4th Street "....


Yes, I wish that for just one time
You could stand inside my shoes
You'd know what a drag it is
To see you

blackthroatedwind 04-17-2007 01:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Java Gold
I wish for 10 minutes on May 5th I could transform into a betting window in front of you...

Java OUT


I wish you booked all his bets.

JJP 04-17-2007 06:48 PM

Teufelsberg is even money to run dead last.

Cajungator26 04-17-2007 07:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JJP
Teufelsberg is even money to run dead last.

I don't think he'll run last... I can see him finishing 8th or 9th maybe, but not dead last.

JJP 04-17-2007 07:59 PM

At 10 furlongs, I say there's a very good chance Teufelsberg is a DNF. He went 1:16 and change and was staggering like a drunk near the wire in the Blue Grass. I hope those connections spare the horse the misery and do the right thing: keep him sprinting.

blackthroatedwind 04-17-2007 08:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26
I don't think he'll run last... I can see him finishing 8th or 9th maybe, but not dead last.


I'll take under for $50K please.

POINTGIVEN1985 04-17-2007 08:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
Here are possible Derby runners who won't be on any of my tickets....

Belgravia
Circular Quay
Cowtown Cat
Liquidity
Officer Rocket
Stormello
Teuflesburg
Tiago
Zanjero

Here are the Derby runners who'll be used only lightly, and only in the 3rd and 4th place positions of some of my exotics.

Chelokee
Domincan

The following will be lightly used...but may appear in the 1st and 2nd slot in one or two of my exotic tickets.

Nobiz Like Shobiz
Sam. P.
Scat Daddy
Street Sense

The following three will appear in all my exotic tickets.

Curlin
Hard Spun
Great Hunter

And Any Given Saturday is my pick to win the race, and who I intend to key in each of the top three slots of my exotic tickets.


call me crazy, and im sure alot of you will, but im hoping belgravia runs huge this weekend and then goes to the derby, because with his style i truly belive he could have a impact on the race.....by a impact i mean make the superfecta

Rudeboyelvis 04-17-2007 08:16 PM

DrugS,

What has Sam P. done to endear himself to you in such a manner as to include him with three of the actual contenders? In my eye, the only thing he has proven is that he is a very nice allowance quality horse that can't get the job done in stakes company.

brianwspencer 04-17-2007 08:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
You're crazy

Well, since Storm in May is the Derby winner, we can just stop all of these discussion right here and now. Get with the program DH.

Cajungator26 04-17-2007 08:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I'll take under for $50K please.

Hmmm... how many horses can finish last? You gotta pick one. Storm in May or Teuflesberg?

POINTGIVEN1985 04-17-2007 08:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
You're crazy

the more i look at all the contenders the more i see overated flawed horses...
belgravia has tons of talent, he showed it beating notional in his second career start.

Overated/flawed list...in my opinion

Sam p
Circular Quay
Any Given Saturday
Cowtown Cat
Dominican
Zanjero
Liquidity
Curlin
Stormello
Scat Daddy..... thats potentially half of the field that i feel is not good enough to win/ therefore i think belgravia could run big

Danzig 04-17-2007 08:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
Dead heat.

stormello is bound to get in the way of one of them..
'new and improved' be dammed.

Cajungator26 04-17-2007 08:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985
the more i look at all the contenders the more i see overated flawed horses...
belgravia has tons of talent, he showed it beating notional in his second career start.

Overated/flawed list...in my opinion

Sam p
Circular Quay
Any Given Saturday
Cowtown Cat
Dominican
Zanjero
Liquidity
Curlin
Stormello
Scat Daddy..... thats potentially half of the field that i feel is not good enough to win/ therefore i think belgravia could run big

Yep, you're crazy.

Danzig 04-17-2007 08:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985
the more i look at all the contenders the more i see overated flawed horses...
belgravia has tons of talent, he showed it beating notional in his second career start.

Overated/flawed list...in my opinion

Sam p
Circular Quay
Any Given Saturday
Cowtown Cat
Dominican
Zanjero
Liquidity
Curlin
Stormello
Scat Daddy..... thats potentially half of the field that i feel is not good enough to win/ therefore i think belgravia could run big

who needs the three stooges?? laugh a minute around here.

JDank34 04-17-2007 08:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985
the more i look at all the contenders the more i see overated flawed horses...
belgravia has tons of talent, he showed it beating notional in his second career start.

Overated/flawed list...in my opinion

Sam p
Circular Quay
Any Given Saturday
Cowtown Cat
Dominican
Zanjero
Liquidity
Curlin
Stormello
Scat Daddy..... thats potentially half of the field that i feel is not good enough to win/ therefore i think belgravia could run big


That's what every GOOD horse needs on his resume...a win over Slotional

slotdirt 04-17-2007 08:32 PM

I think he's done enough.

Danzig 04-17-2007 08:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
I don't even know if I have the energy to go here right now. He beat Notional at 7 furlongs, so what. He hasn't been out all year and his starts keep getting pushed back further and further. He has never been on dirt, never won around two turns and you expect him to win Saturday and then two weeks later crack the super in the 20 horse possible Derby? Besides Biancone saying they are not going to the Derby it just flat out makes no sense. This is almost as bad as the Time Squared thought. What is it with you and Biancone horses?

the cologne maybe?

Danzig 04-17-2007 08:33 PM

[quote=JDank34]That's what every GOOD horse needs on his resume...a win over Slotional[/QUOTE]


hold on, gotta write that one down.

good one!




but, hasn't anyone, by now, come up with the fact that SCAT DADDY has got to finish #2?!?!?!?!?! :eek:

blackthroatedwind 04-17-2007 08:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26
Hmmm... how many horses can finish last? You gotta pick one. Storm in May or Teuflesberg?


Last? LAST? You said Teuflesurg would be 8th or 9th?

Is it suddenly a ten horse field.

I do, however, fear the field will be bunching at the back.

Danzig 04-17-2007 08:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Last? LAST? You said Teuflesurg would be 8th or 9th?

Is it suddenly a ten horse field.

I do, however, fear the field will be bunching at the back.

like bad undies? lol


ok, too much wine...bed time.

Cajungator26 04-17-2007 08:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig
like bad undies? lol


ok, too much wine...bed time.

Hahaha!!!

Danzig 04-17-2007 09:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26
Hahaha!!!

that will be a hell of a wedgie!

Cajungator26 04-17-2007 09:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Last? LAST? You said Teuflesurg would be 8th or 9th?

Is it suddenly a ten horse field.

I do, however, fear the field will be bunching at the back.

Who do you think will be last? Seriously.

blackthroatedwind 04-17-2007 09:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26
Who do you think will be last? Seriously.

I don't know...there are so many mediocrities vying for that spot right now it's harder than picking the winner. Certainly Teuflesberg and Storm in May are strong contenders. Teuflesberg is a better horse but he is severly distance challenged, more so than Storm in May, and he will actually try to win at some point, which will destroy him.

Danzig 04-17-2007 09:06 PM

cajun, you have inspired me......

i think i might have a contest, steve, pais-- if i may???

maybe whoever comes up with the bookends of the derby....what do you guys think?

whoever comes up with the first, and last place finishers--failing that, whoever is closest to having both the first and last place finishers--i will send you a prize.

thoughts??

Cajungator26 04-17-2007 09:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig
cajun, you have inspired me......

i think i might have a contest, steve, pais-- if i may???

maybe whoever comes up with the bookends of the derby....what do you guys think?

whoever comes up with the first, and last place finishers--failing that, whoever is closest to having both the first and last place finishers--i will send you a prize.

thoughts??

What do we get? Bunched up undies? LMAO :p

Danzig 04-17-2007 09:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26
What do we get? Bunched up undies? LMAO :p


lol


i'll think of something. a book on the derby perhaps? or maybe a picture.
you think anyone would be interested? i know i am!


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