What kinda price DO YOU want on you're Derby pick???
 

It seems that almost every year the Derby pictured is muddled. This year is no expection and there is no "standout" horse. Last year, the three that I figured would be the "three betting" choices were - Barbaro, Brother Derek and Lawyer Ron. Sweetsouthernsaint snuck in late to be the slight favorite over the my top three. This year that horse may be Curlin , he may be even better... but has a lot of history to buck. I can't come up with three standouts like last year off the preps this year. I thought the Blue Grass would clear up that picture, but just made it harder. If the Derby was run today, these are the odds that I think the public will give for the respected starters...and (what I think they should be).

Street Sense 5-1 my odds: (4-1)
NoBiz Like Shobiz 4-1 (8-1)
Circular Quay 7-1 (10-1)
Curlin 8-1 (12-1)
Scat Daddy 10-1 (10-1)
Great Hunter 12-1 (7-1)
Any Given Saturday 10-1 (15-1)
Cowtown Cat 15-1 (12-1)
Hard Spun 20-1 (12-1)
Dominican 25-1 (20-1)
Tiago 25-1 (35-1)
Stormello 25-1 (20-1)
Zanjero 30-1 (20-1)

anybody else will be 30-1 or more and realistically should be that

I want 100,000-1 so I can get even from all the times I was wrong

Odds
 

If I can get 8-1 or better on Circular Quay, I think that's a good price. I can't believe Curlin is 7/2 in the futures Pool right now. That is just plain crazy.

I like it when someone puts together odds on all the horses, rather than just says so-and-so should be 4-1. However, your "what I think they should be" adds up to 108%, so some of your odds must be too low. If you kept the rest the same, you'd have to move Street Sense all the way from 4-1 up to 7-1 to get a 100% total. More likely, you'll want to move several of the odds up some.

--Dunbar

Curlin is this years Lawyer Ron. Pretty much too the same route to the Derby and the result will be the same.

Curlin has run against nothing and will get demolished against the big ones.

If CQ is not hurt anything above 7/1 will be great on him

i beg to differ curlin has just as good a shot vs any of these,,

I think you have got it completely wrong here. To me this horse has more of the look of a derby winner than anything else we've seen.

There is the experience issue for sure but Curlin runs very professionally and fast. I think DrugS said it and I agree, Curlin has perhaps turned in the three most impressive starts by a 3yo this year.

I wouldn't touch CQ in the derby with a ten foot pole.

by the way, what do you mean when you say Curlin is taking the same route to the derby as Lawyer Ron? Because they both ran in the Ark Derby?different year, different horse, there is no connection between them.

besides, its also the route taken by Afleet Alex and Smarty Jones.

If Lawyer Ron was in this crop.....he might be a good pick.

No way you get 8/1 on Curlin. I don't care what history says, Curlin will be the favorite. 3/1 if you are lucky. I've never been a fan of CQ, but I think the layoff will raise some doubt and you may get a higher price than you should. Outside of Curlin, I think the Scat Daddy and Hard Spun might this years "worth a shot." There are a whole lot of angles that will be presented and all of them will probably make sense. It's gonna be interesting that's for sure.

99-1. Duh.

Brother Derek would top this crop.

I just hope that I don't throw the ticket in the trash at any odds.

It'll be interesting to see the fig that the beyer boys give to Curlin. My guess is, it will be a good one, considering how far he beat the rest of the field. I know he's bucking history with so few starts, but the race reminded me a lot of Smarty's Arkansas Derby when he decided to put Purge away. It was sort of like "ho hum, I guess it's time to do some serious running" and that was the end of that. Comparisons with Lawyer Ron seem more appropriate for a lot of the rest of the field for the upcoming KD.

On Derby day I dont care about odds. I know that I am going to get fair odds on the horse that I like. I usually do not bet the Derby as a seperate betting interest. I use the Derby as the last leg of my pick 3 and I usually go 10 deep.

I think you might be off on Curlin, he has bad favorite written all over him.

He ran monsterous yesterday, I am guessing an absolute HUGE TG number, and will be an absolute toss for me 20 days out.....if they gave him until the Preakness I would unload on him there

With all the things he has to go up against...anything under 10-1 is crazy on him.
Agreed, the Preakness would be a better spot.
In the Derby, if he's that good...I'll let him beat me at those low odds.

Yeah, I always get fair odds on every Derby horse I like, too. But that's in Bizarro World. Back hear on Earth I actually have to look at the odds some and decide if I'm getting some value.

--Dunbar

Right Cardus. The ML odds set by the track oddsmakers usually add up to well over the track takeout. For the Arkansas Derby yesterday, the morning line added to 131%, which would only be reasonable if the takeout was 24%.

I wasn't sure if Hickory Hoff was giving what he thought would be fair odds given the takout (should add to 119% for a 16% takeout), or fair odds in the absense of takeout. (should add to 100%). The more useful figure for betting purposes is a line that adds to 100%.

--Dunbar

Math wasn't one of my better subjects...:p

KY Derby Future Wager Pool 3 Odds
# Horse M/L Odds
1 Any Given Saturday 15-1
2 Belgravia 50-1
3 Birdbirdistheword 50-1
4 Chelokee 15-1
5 Circular Quay 8-1
6 Cowtown Cat 15-1
7 Curlin 12-1
8 Deadly Dealer 50-1
9 Dominican 50-1
10 Great Hunter 10-1
11 Hard Spun 12-1
12 Liquidity 30-1
13 Nobiz Like Shobiz 6-1
14 Notional 15-1
15 Officer Rocket 50-1
16 Reporting for Duty 50-1
17 Sam P. 30-1
18 Scat Daddy 8-1
19 Stormello 20-1
20 Street Sense 5-1
21 Teuflesberg 50-1
22 Tiago 15-1
23 Zanjero 30-1

this is the futrue odds i got from drf.com. And i love it when the public jumps on a horse like Chelokee @15-1 and a horse like Curlin @ 12-1. I hope the same people making these future bets do the same come derby day and knock that horse to single digits for a ALW N1X horse

-bt-

i plan on making a huge win and place wager on NOBIZ and 5-1 will be fine with me.

Better you than me...still don't trust him and in a full field of horses...no thanks
Better value elsewhere.

id like to see about 10/1+++ on great hunter.....i think that ill see just below that

Why so high on Dominican?
 

First, I think your line is pretty good. The fact that I can only identify one horse to argue about is a good indication. I am not sure where Dominican is on the future odds. But, the horse ran a great race and has run well every time he went out. Why is he all the way up at 20-1 in odds? I think 20-1 is a steal. I would put him at 12-1 and still take the bet.

Bloom

Your "line" was way better than the usual morning line nonsense.

--Dunbar

Nobody is talking about Street Sense. Don't rule out this horse as he LOVES Churchill, and he basically ran a similar race in the Bluegrass to the race in the Lanes End last fall. He made the lead then was a little short. We all know what he did in his next start. Don't forget what Carl did with Unbridled in the Bluegrass and then 3 weeks later under the spires.

just for comparison, these are the best prices available from british bookies:

Curlin (5/1) ,
Scat Daddy (6/1) ,
Street Sense (7/1) ,
Nobiz Like Shobiz (9/1) ,
Circular Quay (10/1) ,
Dominican (14/1) ,
Great Hunter (14/1) ,
Notional (14/1) ,
Tiago (16/1) ,
Any Given Saturday (20/1) ,
Hard Spun (20/1) ,
Chelokee (25/1) ,
Cowtown Cat (25/1) ,
Stormello (25/1) ,
Zanjero (25/1) ,
Air Commander (33/1) ,
Deadly Dealer (33/1) ,
Drums of Thunder (33/1) ,
Ketchikan (33/1) ,
King Of The Roxy (33/1)

any nice bets there?