Did Anyone Notice?
 

Here is the list of the highest Beyer's for 3yo's this year, going into today:

Magnificience (f) SA 01 Apr 6 1/2F 109
Flying First Class OP 19 Feb 6F 107
Deadly Dealer GP 03 Mar 7 1/2F 104
Exhale SA 15 Jan 6 1/2F 104
Ravel SA 03 Feb 1 1/8M 104
King of the Roxy GP 03 Mar 7 1/2F 103
Mr Tex SA 09 Mar 6F 103
Adore the Gold GP 03 Feb 6 1/2F 102
Any Given Saturday TAM 17 Mar 1 1/16M 102
Circular Quay FG 10 Mar 1 1/16M 102
Coco Belle (f) SA 01 Feb 6F 102
Liquidity SA 03 Feb 1 1/8M 102
Song of Navarone SUN 18 Mar 1 1/8M 102
Street Sense TAM 17 Mar 1 1/16M 102
Texas Voyager SA 13 Jan 5 1/2F 102
Curlin GP 03 Feb 7F 101
Elusive Warning AQU 30 Mar 6F 101
Great Hunter SA 03 Mar 1 1/16M 101
Hard Spun TP 24 Mar 1 1/8M 101
Forefathers GP 03 Feb 6 1/2F 100
Solemn Promise SUN 18 Mar 1 1/8M 100
Teuflesberg OP 19 Feb 1M 100
Dream Rush (f) GP 10 Feb 6 1/2F 99
Ketchikan FG 16 Feb 1M 99
Sam P. SA 03 Mar 1 1/16M 99
Spin Master GP 03 Feb 7F 99
Street Magician GP 10 Feb 6F 99


There are 27 performances listed there........by 27 different horses. No repeaters on the list.

Had Magnificience not walked out of the starting gate in her debut---she'd have two triple digit figures in as many starts.

And how many of these are still on the derby trail or capable of the distance?

There are 27 performances listed there........by 27 different horses. No repeaters on the list.

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And what does this have to do ,exactly,with the price of tea in China?




Let's make our point,sir.

It is my understanding that these numbers are based not only upon final time and a daily track variant but that that they are also somewhat based upon the horses past history and how his numbers compare to other horses he's run against.

I didnt think that was the case as I read Beyer on Speed or whatever that early book was and didnt come away with that impression at all. But after the controversy with back fittting the BSF earned by Summer Doldrums or whatever horse it was it was explained to me that the history of the horse is part of it.

Which brings up an interesting pt. If that is the case, then arent all these numbers a bit self fulfilling? I mean at this pt. with all these 3 year olds having run so many races, a colt would have to run a whopper of a race in order to break the logjam and run a 105 or 110 BSF. Right? Otherwise all the other numbers would have be adjusted up if he were to say run a marginally better race.

At this pt. with so many races among these horses already in the books and already been assigned numbers, then the next race out is going to have to fit within this range, unless it is monster huge.

So the whole process becomes self fulfilling. Namely because it is subjective.

So if the idea is that these numbers prove that this years class is not so hot, I dont buy it. Show some objective data. Does anyone use final times? What about beaten lengths? Or look at established stakes records.

Could it be some sort of "recession" in these Beyer ratings is going on? In chess they have ELO ratings which over time have an inflationary element to them. SO Gary Kasparov's rating is now higher than Bobby Fischer's ever was. ANd Fischer's was higher than Alekhines, but whether Kasp. was that much better than Alekhine is not a given....

Didnt they run the TB derby in stakes record time? What Beyer SPeed figure was earned?

They ran a full second faster than when Limehouse won that race, and you are claiming on the other thread that Limehouse is a better horse than most of these contenders this year. Maybe you are too wedded to the figs??

something to look at but i never use them when picking horses........form,sheets.....22 years on the job;)

MR. MDF

Usually when talking 3yr olds, the point leads to those on the derby trail, if it is not the point then forgive me for reading in to it that far.

Lo siento Senor Emin Effer.

Flying First Class his time and speed number was a six furlong race at that. Many of these numbers are hogwash to me. Some are at a distance below a mile and some are a mile and change. To me it'll take watching the final two preps before I make my mind up and before I get into all of the numbers game. This will only the second time for Street Sense to race at the age of 3 and Curlin's 2nd time around two turns. So what we have here is alot of racing left to do in my book.

The point being made was how evenly matched this crowd is and how there is no standout among the group. Usually, u have a couple of horses that have put up more than one performance that places them on the board. None of them this year even have two placings on the board, let alone two in triple figures. The high figure among the colts is 107 in a sprint and 104 in a route. Let's look at last year's Derby field:

Keyed Entry had a 110 (sprint), 105 (route)
Sinister Minister had a 116 (route), 102 (sprint)
Point Determined had a 100 and 103 (both routes)
Showing Up had a 100 (at a mile)
Bob and John had a 102 (route)
Barbaro had a 103 (route)
Sharp Humor had a 102 (route)
AP Warrior had a 100 and 101 (both routes)
Sweetnorthernsaint had a 102 (sprint), 104 (mile), 104 and 109 (routes)
Deputy Glitters had a 102 (route)
Lawyer Ron had a 106 (route)
Brother Derek had a 108 (mile), 102 and 108 (routes)

From that group, there are 18 Beyer's of 100+ in races of 1m or longer. This year, so far there are 10. This year's high of 104 in a route was bettered last year six times.

The point I was making was to try to illustrate that this it not that good a group this year. There is consistency and there is the fact that last year's top 2yo's have been this year's best 3yo's. That's nice to see but it shouldn't cloud the fact that while they are consistent and evenly matched, they are below par for what should be considered a good crop. We've just seen a bunch of average performances by a bunch of average horses.

the first might have been low just because it was her maiden, I remember when azeri broke her maiden in 108 she got like a 95 which i thought was way low (dont think she ran below that in a real effort the rest of her career)

[quote=King Glorious]

The point I was making was to try to illustrate that this it not that good a group this year. There is consistency and there is the fact that last year's top 2yo's have been this year's best 3yo's. That's nice to see but it shouldn't cloud the fact that while they are consistent and evenly matched, they are below par for what should be considered a good crop.[quote]

HOw do we know they are below par? THese Beyer numbers are subjective adn they are a little bit self fulfilling if my undestanding of how they are arrived at is correct?

Until you come up with objective criterion to evaluate the absolute quality of a given crop there is no evidence of this.

I certainly agree this years crop is evenly matched to a large degree, what I dont agree is how we can be so sure this crop is below average.

Dont we have anythign objective? Final times, beaten lengths? Something?

Thank you KG.



That was good.

It's not exactly a dazzling group so far.

Odd Les Bois would be under your name.



Do you know the meaning of the term "fire to ice"...Mr. SesameStreetP u s s y Cat?

KG, I've noticed this too... but the good thing is there's a lot of depth which negates some of the lack of truly "fast" performances. So far only Street Sense has run a legitmately fast race and even I'm willing to admit that number is questionable based on the circumstance.

I thought it was quite interesting, and nice to see these numbers in one place...

ALostTexan

This is info that means nothing at all. History, play it, and lose it. What bearing does a beyer have on the next race? Nothing

:cool:

Mr. Post-It-All was replying to me Tex, sorry for the confusion,




and



your



point,



Mr. 5Knuckleshuffle???

You cannot compare horses from last year to this year based on beyers. Look at Sinister Minister. He ran his beyer before Polytrack. I think consistency and competiveness is what makes a crop wonderful. Last year there was no one who came close to Barbaro. So far, I do see a standout this year.

U can find consistency and competitiveness in a $12.5k claimer at Santa Anita on a Thursday afternoon. Don't u want to see greatness or at least some stars when talking about America's supposed greatest race?

No one is really a star until the Derby. Barbaro wasnt a star until he won the Derby. I really dont care to see a star. I think when one horse dominates a division then it is rather boring. I would like to see 4-6 horses that are even competing at the top level for their division.

The difference is you can measure objectively consistency and competitiveness. You can look at beaten lengths, or PPs, or whatever. You can see horses that are finishing together.

But how do you measure greatness? Using final times is elusive at best. Even the best horses are not going to run good times if they are facing similar horses w/ similar styles. The pace pressure wherever it comes, will erode a good final time.

Maybe that is happening here? Maybe Street Sense only runs a 102 Beyer because he was under pressure the whole stretch or maybe he was forced run a little earlier than usual. They set a stakes record in this race adn only ran a 102 Beyer. Maybe it is the Beyers that are messed up???

Again: BY what objective measure do you measure greatest or how good is a given crop? I wait with baited breath.

I think that if u are going to believe that there is greatness in this crop, u have to assume that there is a lot of it because none of them are stepping up and really separating themselves from the pack. I feel like it's more likely that there is no greatness in this group and they are all good and evenly matched than that there are a bunch of great ones. Last year, horses like Bernardini and Barbaro really separated themselves. Of course, that started with the Derby so there is still the chance that could happen this year. But as of this point, I haven't seen any of them stamp themselves as a great one.

We'll know more when they line up for the Travers.

it's only april..plenty of time for some to separate themselves and then get retired after having shown all they will need to show.