No Derby for Hard Spun ???
 

On his website last night:

Larry and I have been setting a plan with options for about a week now. We would both love nothing more than to run in the Kentucky Derby. Of course, we want to feel confident we have a very good chance of winning. I have thought about our options carefully and want to take the smartest approach possible. Therefore, since there is so much talk about the similarities of the surfaces of Oaklawn and Churchill, Larry and I want to test the track. He will ship down Friday and gallop for several days and then breeze at Churchill. Mario Pino will come in for that breeze. If he handles the track to Larry's satisfaction, we will run in the Derby. If he does not, we will aim for the Lexington on April 24th. The goal will be the Preakness if we skip the Kentucky Derby. Larry and I both feel these two options are the best approach for Hard Spun. I am trying my best to avoid "Derby Fever." We feel this is a very good and well thought out plan.

Rick

Just sounds like they're hedging their bets. If the horse is healthy, you have to believe Porter wants to run in the big race after what happened with Rockport Harbor a couple of years ago.

What in the hell is Porter talking about? What similiarities between Oaklawn's and Churchill's surfaces? And who's doing all this talking about it? If they're so concerned about their 'well thought out plan' and the Preakness is the goal, ship to Pimlico and 'test' its' surface. Good grief. No outfit does more hand-wringing and teeth-gnashing than Fox Hill. It's unbelievable.

There was another story about this in the Philadelphia Inquirer this morning. It's posted on racingdispatch.com in the midwest section.

In it Jones is basically dancing around the topic of whether Hard Spun will run in the Blue Grass. He makes no commitment then starts talking about how he's nervous that the Oaklawn and Churchill surfaces are very similar. He says that normally horses who like Oaklawn like Churchill because it's a bit cuppier. He also admitted that skipping the Derby, should Hard Spun show he doesn't like Churchill, is a possibility.

Very interesting development and definitely weird in my opinion.

NT

Agreed. And I don't buy the "he didn't handle the track" crap in the Southwest. He was hung 3-4 wide the whole way around from an impossible post at a mile, and still only got beat 3 lengths to a lone speed and earned a good speed figure. Not to mention he worked what 3 times at Oaklawn and fired a bullet every time. Why do they try to excuse away every loss these days? He lost. So what. He came back and dominated his next start.

He's currently at the top of my Derby list but I hate this indecision. It's not as egregious as some other guy's decision to try to win the Derby off what amounts to 1 race campaign in 2007 and an 8 week layoff... but close.

With the news of the last couple of days, who the heck IS going to run in the Derby?

The winner, Scat Daddy. :p

An EXTREMELY fresh..............Green Monkey!!!!

that horse has alot of early tactical speed the preakness is probably perfect. in the big field of the derby(usually with several that don't belong) he could be burnt in a fast pace. very rarely does a horse win up front because thay are going 1 1/4 the first time and the first half blisters the front pack. thats how some of these "bomb" closers win the race , the most recent was giacumo.

Churchill's surface can get "cuppy" but we all know it is far from "cuppy" on Derby day. The track is like a concret surface on that day. In addition, the stretch is much longer that Oaklawn's and it isn't downhill. I have no clue what these people are thinking. It pisses me off at times when people cannot stick to a plan. I have to give credit to Carl N. He had a plan for Street Sense ever since the Breeders Cup and he hasnt wavored from it. Win or lose at lease he stuck to his plan.

Aside from changing what race SS would make his debut in this year he has stuck to the two race campaign.

NT

I am not sure why they think Oaklawn and Churchill Downs are so similar. Hard Spun though doesn't appear to be in the elite category. The Lexington is another polytrack race which he obviously handled. If I am correct, Hard Spun will be worth quite a bit in the breeding shed, and maybe they feel a win in the Lexington will be worth more than a 5th or 6th place finish in the derby, which is the best I could see him doing.

This has to be one of the biggest crocks I have ever heard. I find it amazing that people think that they can gallop over a track for a few days and maybe breeze once and tell definitively "if he likes the surface". As someone who has trained at Churchill for the last seven years I have had plenty of horses who trained exceptionally over it and ran poorly. Also the weather at this time of the year plays so much into the way the track is playing. When it is warm like it has been the last few days it will get tight. When it gets cold the track loosens up quite a bit. Not to mention all the rain and wind we can get at a moments notice. Just shut up and run your damn horse and stop trying to outthink yourself. It is still called horse racing but I hear that a name change may be in the works.

Good points

Exactly, they see Hard Spun as their meal ticket. They'll never get another horse this good.

And people laugh when I say I would have a better idea of where to place horses than mosts trainer would. Could he be more clueless about his own horse?

Cannon, note I said "most"!

I just love the " Hard Spun didn't like Oaklawn " comments. Funny, he ran arguably his best race there, and certainly his best dirt race, so I guess it is fair to assume that he really hated the other surfaces he ran on.

What a joke.

Cut the guy a break....he's in Belgium.

I think Larry is a very good trainer but it is hard to believe that he is waffling so much therefore I am putting most of the blame on Porter. I mean unless there is a physical problem that we dont know about why would they want to pass on the Derby in a year where the firld has so many question marks? I know Porter has a presence in the mid atlanic region but the Preakness is a consolation prize except to the Derby winner. They talk so much about a specific surface that this horse handles or does not handle as though they can "manage" that part of the scenario. Like it was stated before, the surface Derby Day usually has no relation to the one that is used for training a month before.

I do too. One of the most underrated in the nation.

I've got a new theory... if they waffle enough, the future book odds will go up! Yeah, that's it!

Another Belgium crack. Very funny.

:D

I have a question about his horse. Did anyone see his lead change or lack of change in the Lanes End? I know I didnt see the entire stretch run clearly but he looked to be on the wrong foot at the end. Someone else mentioned that he was on the wrong foot on the turn. Does anyone have a more definitive opinion?

I ask because I am wondering if there could be some sort of foot issue here..

i was thinking the same thing--this is the first comparison i've ever seen between oaklawn and churchill, and is news to me.
of course there are horses who don't care for a particular surface...but hard spun had a bullet work at oaklawn, if he works well at churchill-how will they know if he likes it or not? after all, he supposedly didn't like oaklawn, but seemed to train well there.

after the fla derby hes nutz not to take a shot...

I don't think there is a foot issue at all. I agree with this being a crock as well. The one thing that makes this one so hard to understand is the owner's desire to be a major player or known as a major player....Which is one reason why he continues to run Round Pond in spite of her issues. This makes absolutely no sense at all. Especially after the Southwest at Oaklawn. All they did from the time Jones shipped the string there was rave about how Hard Spun loved the track and was training the best he ever had. Then you throw in an outside post, 4 wide the whole way, an up the track 4th and he now hates the surface. If it pans out and they say he doesn't like the surface and they skip the Derby, then I am absolutely convinced that they think they have a nice stakes horse on their hands and can win some races with him if they carefully pick and choose the spots where they enter him. So they avoid getting beat up in the Derby and go into a shorter Preakness fresh. I feel pretty certain on one thing.....if this is a possibility, Jones must be stomping all over that ten gallon right about now, because I'm pretty sure this is/was not his decision. His chance could be walking out Greed's door.

Ok, I just read the DRF and Bloodhorse articles. This makes no sense.

BS.

all indications from hard spun before his loss at oaklawn showed he liked the track...going back through the bloodhorse articles, you see his work in .59, another mention in another article says:Second, he has the benefit of a great workout from behind two stable mates on Feb. 7 (five furlongs in 1:00.60, fastest of 51). Third, his overall workouts at Oaklawn show he likes the track.
so, if he works well, like he did at oaklawn, how will you know if he likes the track or not?
isn't it possible that the 'common cold' he had, that kept him from going to the risen star, may have been the culprit in his first loss, not a track that he seemed to handle just fine in the mornings?

i appreciate you posting, and explaining....anything that would shed light is great.
i love hard spun, and have been watching him all year-i hope you guys find that he is indeed a 'derby horse'. best of luck to you with him.

2 words about Hard Spun....BROKE DOWN

what is that supposed to mean??