derby odds
 

This is another year where it appear that whoever you like you will be able to get just as good if not better odd on derby day, as opposed to the future pools. With four or five preps still remaining It looks as if all of the contenders has a wart or 2, You realy have to look closely to find some but we have all heard some on the comments on this forum. Even with Scat Daddys nice racce Sat5/1 will probably be as low as he will go. Street Sense, Nobiz and Great Hunter are the only colts that will possibly be under 3/1 at post time. Entrants are comming from so many direction and varried training snd preperation. I just dont see a strong favorite even with the major preps that are remaining.

i dont think any horse will be under 3/1 at post time. guessing the fav will be aroung 5 or 6:1

to me, any horse under 35/1 in the future pools 1 or 2 doesnt get my money until post time.

I think that if Street Sense romps in the Blue Grass, he'll be under 3/1.

I don't see Nobiz beating Circular Quay, so he probably won't go off at below 5-1. Street Sense though could very easily be a 2-1 favorite. He obviously loves Churchill (108 Beyer) and even the skeptics like me are beginning to think he might be something special. The horse he just beat might just be the number 2 3yr old out there.

I think Street Sense or Great Hunter could go off under 3-1 with any sort of impressive performance in the Blue Grass, though more likely Street Sense, because in regards to his BCJ win -- all of the same angles are going to be there that were there on BC day.

When looking at the favorite, four times in the "oughts" since 2000 has a Kentucky Derby favorite been below 3-1: Bellamy Road (around 5/2), Empire Maker (5/2), Point Given (around 2-1) and Fusaichi Pegasus (a little less than 5/2). In that bunch we had a blowout winner of the Wood, the second coming according to the pedigree experts, the second coming according to Bob Baffert, and a crazy son of Mr. Prospector.

Is there a 3-1 and under type horse in this year's field? Who knows?

No horses will go off at 3/1 or under!!!!!

Sure there are some nice horses(Street Sense,Great Hunter,CQ,Scat Daddy)

You maybe get a big bet on 1 of them but still best odds will be a 5/1 or maybe a 9/2 on 1 or 2 of those horses


Just too many horses running.

Too early to really tell...
Blowout wins in any of the big preps left will sway things, but all things being equal, I see it similar to last year with several lukewarm favorites hovering around 9-2 and 7-1.

I agree about SS. All this stressing him always getting the perfect trip leads me to beleive he is good enough to carve a perfect trip. Curlin is the horse that appears to have the raw talent o beat this bunch but as all will say not enough foundation.

Sometimes I really wish this were a betting exchange. I'd be willing to bet major money that the fav is under 5-1.

--Dunbar

I agree. Something would have to seriously go wrong with Street Sense for him not to be under 5-1 on Derby day.

Note that of the four 3-1 or under horses since 2000, only one has won the race (Fusaichi Pegasus). If Street Sense is under 3-1, I'd say there are a lot of bad betters out there.

I'm not so sure they will be. There's a lot of horses that will attract attention this year; if Street Sense blows their doors off in the Blue Grass he probably will be, Nobiz with a big performance in the Wood might be, but if Hard Spun or AGS do they'd probably be right at 5 or 6-1, same thing with CQ in the Wood.

All and all this is going to be a fantastic Derby.

Street Sense is the only one that could get down below 3-1, and it would take another big effort to knock him down there.

if he even wins the bluegrass you'd have to think he'd be a solid 2-1 favorite at the least....

He's not winning the Blue Grass. He won't be second.

i disagree with that, how would they be bad bettors ? he already ran huge at churchill.... if he wins the bluegrass and comes into the derby 2-2 on the year and defeating the likes of any given satuday, great hunter and hard spun then i'd say he almost definitly be under 3-1

who do u like in the bluegrass ?

Will wait to see who is in there for sure.

at this point i like hard spun-street sense

It's very likely you will have a 20 horse field...with 7 horses in that field exiting a win in either a Grade 1 or Grade 2 prep race.

Besides those 7---you will also have horses like Notional, the loser of the Nobiz/CQ Wood, and the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place finisher in the Bluegrass whom all figure to get a at least a little bit of wagering support.

That's 12 horses out of 20 whom are likely to get support from the betting public. Of the other 8, you know almost all of them will get a little bit of attention as well. Even a crazy horse like Chelokee, whom will be the only horse in the race that fits the profile that each of the last four Derby winners fit, and is trainer by Matz, will get a little bit of attention.

Barring a few key injuries, the only way I see a runner going off at less than 3/1, would be if Street Sense wins the salty Blue Grass, and no one else looks impressive in the other preps. I don't really see that scenerio happening.

so if street sense wins the bluegrass vs a very very good group you dont see him being 5-2 or 2-1, this is all based on if, but if he wins the bluegrass he will go into the derby 2-2 on the year, he also would have defeated alot of the top contenders, and also already has a huge race over churchill

i read it, but even for someone like me who loves nobiz, even if he beats circular quay, and if street sense wins i could never see nobiz being anywhere near street sense's odds, i could see it like nobiz 5-1 and street sense 5-2

Don't forget Zanjero
 

Don't forget about Zanjero?
If he does well in the Blue Grass, like win or come in 2nd,
he will have great chance especially with the longer mile & a quarter distance
in the derby.

Agreed. I personally like his chances a lot, although most will say that he's not very fast.

I'm beginning to think you are a glutton for abuse. Didn't you get enough of it for writing Street Sense was "finished" before his last win?

--Dunbar

I agree with all of this. But the poster predicted the fav would go off at 5-1 or 6-1. I think it's very unlikely that there will be no horse at 9-2 or lower.

--Dunbar

they're won't be , someone will win impressively and the media will jump on the bandwagon. i'm predicting the fav will be about 3-1. but who wants the fave when its like bumper cars anyway. and i think the favorite wins that race like once every 7 or 8 years avg. unless theres truly a great horse the race is over rated. its a fun bet but some of the other derby card races are better for betting that day. as some other poster pointed out the best bets are the ones that come 2nd or 3rd. thats where the winner usually lands a good price and sometimes a bomb price. look for someone thats a little "short" or makes a big run but doesn't win. i rarely like the fave in that race but i did get burned by bellamy 2 years ago. he looked so good winning the wood. remember Gaucomo, i think he won 1 race after that. do folks really think hes good or or a horse that got a good trip on the right day ?

Well, since Giacomo is retired now...

I'd say he was a good horse at picking up the pieces after everything in front of him fell apart. He also liked Churchill Downs. He finished 4th in the BCC this past October. Not too shabby...

I was also on the Bellamy Road bandwagon and (stubbornly) remain convinced that he had the talent to really be something. It's too bad he couldn't stay sound enough to run.