Lanes End...
 

I am liking a few in here, but I was wondering what you guys thought of this race. I don't know what to make of Todd's pair.

I really like Twilight Meteor, but Bullara had some nice races on the turf as well. I am also wondering about Sedgefield. He has been first or second in all of his races on the turf and won his only race at Turfway.

I know I like Hard Spun and Forefathers, but I question this distance for them. (They are both in my rttr stable so I hope one of them wins).

Any thoughts? Am I crazy for looking at TM; Bullara and Sedgefield?

There seem to be a ton of horses in this race that can win. . . I'm trying to narrow down the field for a Pk3 but I'm having alot of trouble. . . I think the contenders are:

Bullara, Forefathers, Twilight Meteor, Hard Spun, For You Reppo, and Sedgefield. . .

I wouldn't include Bullara if it weren't for Johnny V/Pletcher. . . He'll be the higher priced of the two and the fact that Johnny V is on him COULD mean something. . . Cotton Blossom's win in the Schuylerville comes to mind- Pletcher had 2 entered, Johnny V. rode Cotton Blossom and she won at higher odds than the other TAP entry. . .

I like Forefathers but I might toss him because he'll be underlaid. . .

Bullara will draw money because of connections and he has shown great improvement. I dont think his odds will make it worth the stab. Overbet imo.

I don't like Hard Spun at all as a Derby horse but don't be surprised at all to see him move up on the poly. I think he may ultimately turn out to be a good turf horse.

For You Reppo

Seems like quite of bit of early speed in the race. SportsTown, Bullara, Forefathers, HardSpun and possibly Starbase all have early zip. I'm using For You Reppo, Twilight Meteor and Sedgefield.

gl

I don't get Twilight Meteor at all ( and Bullara is comically bad ). Did anyone take a good look at the field Twilight Meteor beat at Keeneland on Polytrack?

Suffice to say it was more than a little weaker than this field. He will be probably less than a third the price of his actual chances of winning and likely even more.

for those people who follow turfway (because I do not) is there a large disadvantage for those on the outside in a route...I can't remember how big the track is and I don't feel like looking it up. thanks.
are there even any other races at turfway that are run at 1 1/8?

It was an off the turfer so it isn't surprising that it was a terrible field. I hope no one is betting him on the basis of that race. If he gets bet it should be because someone considers the Hallandale Beach a strong race which I am currently on the fence about. And of course because his trainer is winning everything in sight.

I certainly hope the public falls all over Twilight Meteor based on his perfect trip turf win. I think he has very little chance to win this race.

I just saw the Beyers and see that he got a mindboggling 97 for the race on the poly. Don't know how they came up with that especially since poly figures seem to come up consistently low. I don't imagine any other figures support that 97.

And will you not elaborate further, as to who you do like, or think possible?

I mean, I don't have a check that I can hand you just this minute, but . . . your thoughts are always welcome. And you know that, I'm sure.

I assume they made the fig the way they make all of them but it also didn't seem indicative of the horse's in the field's abilities.

I think this is a really good race in terms of betting, but not in the quality of the field. My top pick here is Joe Got Even.
He is no superstar, but he is a solid and consistent stakes horse on the poly.
Sims and Mena are both tough @TP, and I think the race will set up nicely for this horse's stalker-style.
Unlike some of the horse's in here that have posted flashy numbers while loose on the lead in races with short fields (Hard Spun and Bullara) JGE has been competing against full fields - 11 starters in each of his last two races - and posting figures that are both legitimate and consistent.
I have no idea what his post-time odds will be, but I think he will be a nice price.

I think he has as good a chance as anybody. This is a race that may be virtually impossible to bet. If you don't back him or Hard Spun (both of whom will be overbet) then who the heck do you go with? Forefathers? Sedgefield? I have a tough time seeing anyone else win the race.

Mile circumference, outside posts are fine at a mile and a 1/16 and longer. Even in a bulky field the 10-12 holes are fine.

Sniper, maybe we're both on the same wave length.

I think For You Reppo is pretty good actually. Did you ever watch the replay of his 6F debut at Turfway? The chart call is slightly inaccurate....to put it mildly. I thought he got a lousy ride last time, and while the winner was best considering his trouble, For You Reppo ran better than it looks.

Forefathers is the most talented horse in the race, but the race doesn't set up well for him, and he's a big question mark at the distance. I suppose Hard Spun can win but I don't see what the fuss is about him. His races are OK, and he ran fine last time, but he's not worth the price he always ends up.

he's not in Arkansas anymore...and he didn't exactly please the masses last out. Perhaps a better price is in order.

And I thank you BTW, I'll watch some replays early tomorrow morning, or later when I download the Turfway card.

I'll have to check that out, that figure was enough to scare me off.

I thought Kent D. made a premature move on the backstretch to put 'Reppo up with the leaders in his last race...(into a pace that went :46+ for the first half mile) the horse looked like he had to maintain a sustained drive for the last 5 furlongs or so. The bad news is, Kent D. is back aboard for this race too!

I saw the race the same way.

Is it just me or is this race exponentially better than the last 3-4 Lanes Ends? At least since when Perfect Drift won it in '02 (when it was known as the Spiral)?

Last year's renewal was a total laughingstock of a horse race. Who was around at the end? With A City, Seaside Retreat, Malameeze?

Awesome.

I think Sedgefield is the horse to beat. He probably was the best in his last; just expended a bit too much energy early. And we know he handles the Poly.

Based on recent runnings, the race doesn't even deserve Grade 3 status. Last year's running was sub-horrible.

This race is at least as good as the G2 San Rafael, the G2 San Vincente, and the G2 San Felipe. The second and third place finishers in those races were Tenfold, Grapelli, Law Breaker, Half Famous, Air Commander, and Level Red.

We'll see about that. There's a few decent horses and more established turf form here than anything. I think Air Commander would be a solid contender against this bunch, at least if they were running on real dirt. In fact, I doubt any of these would beat him on a regular dirt track. If anything you're just really making a case for the California races being overrated. In general, there's too many graded stakes (especially Grade 1s) for 3YOs.

haven't had a chance to look this race over. i'll be pulling for hard spun-but not sure what to think of him after his last. every horse can have a bad day--so was that a bad day, or is it indicative of what he really is? also, teuflesberg didn't compliment him at all next out.
not sure that this race will really have any bearing regarding the derby. but a fun race to watch.

While Hard Spun was severely overbet, he was wide on both turns; not exactly the recipe to win mile races at Oaklawn. I think Lil E Tee got beat in the Southwest and he rebounded pretty good.

I think that Sports Town will be ready to go.

He barely held on in his last race....what makes you think he will be better off here?

That was really weak, last year.

All I can remember was Battaglia screaming "WITH......A......CITY!!!"

why can't that guy learn that to make it exciting you don't have to scream.

He's been working incredible and I really like his pedigree for the poly. With A City (RIP) didn't have much of a shot last year either, but this surface seems to favor longshots and Sports Town should be at big odds.

Surfaces cannot " favor longshots ".

It SEEMS to.

Once again....that would be incorrect.

Tracks can favor speed horses, closers, inside or outside....but they cannot, by the very definition of the word, favor a horse because of its odds...whether it seems like that to you or not.

Although I suppose you could make the argument that the average bettor is poorer at handicapping polytrack than other surfaces so it is more likely that a longshot wins. The surface doesn't favor them, the bettor is just poor at recognizing which horses will do well.

I understand that, Andy. Perhaps it's coincidental (let me pull out my crystal ball), but horses at longer odds seem to win there. That's all I was saying.

It's possible that the odds are not quite as true on the new surface but I would guess that, minus takeout, even at Turfway, with the large sample, the horses ran very close to their odds over time....minus outlyers like regular surfaces.