3YO preps; who really was the best horse in each race
 

Ftn of Youth--Stormello. No question the pace was just too quick and fell apart in the final furlong. Still Stormello was narrowly beaten. IMO, his superiority was clear cut in that race.

Louisiana Derby--tougher call here. Circular Quay was certainly visually impressive but that was likely aided by the ultra quick pace set by Ketchikan. I can understand the argument for either side here.

San Felipe---slow pace crawlfest. Nice wide move by Air Commander. Cobalt Blue figures to be an underlay coming out of this race.

Tampa Bay Derby---Picture perfect trip for Street Sense. Fast pace in front of him, then Borel did the rail scrape. He looked like he'd pull away but Any Given Saturday was coming back at him. AGS also was closer to the fast pace and lost more ground than SS. Best: Any Given Saturday.

Rebel---Hands down, Curlin dominated here. This horse has the look of a legit Derby contender, IF they can keep his mind on his business.

Likely overbet next out: Cobalt Blue, Scat Daddy, Circular Quay and Street Sense

I agree with you on Curlin in the Rebel. This is the first time I got the chance to watch him and was very impressed. but what about the Derby hoopla? Stormello was the star of the FOY to me also. But I have to kindly disagree with your opinion of the TBDerby. I think SS was the star. In my opinion toss out Cobalt Blue. I have never cared for Scat D. but he has done nothing but run great. And I really like CQuay. I really, really want to see Ravel run. But they one prep sucks.;)

I still can't understand why everyone was is soo impressed with Stormello, yes I give him props for fighting back after it looked like he was getting passed but imo It doesn't look like 1 1/4 is going to be his best distance. Not only did Scatt Daddy beat him but if this race was any longer No Biz would have beaten him too. Watch the race again, it looks like he doesn't have the extra in him for the classic distance. The 1 1/8 stakes races I think he'll be very competitive in.

I agree with this. I don't think the Florida crew is getting it done this year.

I guess we'll have to wait and see what Scatt Daddy and No Biz build off of that race. I still would not count No biz out. I just watched that race again just now and he was charging at the end.

Mirage from tiring horses in front of him.

It looks like Scat Daddy, Stormello and Notional will have a go at eachother in the Florida Derby, so we'll see how Stormello looks then.

Adore the Gold will beat all of them like a drum.

Yup. . . I'm hoping for 5-1 on him. . .

I was just going to post the same thing...
I think he'll be the 4th or 5th betting choice, and will be a great value.
not sure if he'll beat them like a drum, but I expect a much better result (if he gets a better post this time around).

You are not right about who was the best just who had the most excuses. The ones that won did so even if they had an excuse. The best ones win and dont look for excuses. Lack of talent will cause horses get into trouble and thus look for excuses.

Rand, like you, I am on Great Hunter...

So why don't these "best ones" win every race? Please enlighten me.

He's the best I've seen so far and I liked him last year a bit.

But I'm not big on O'Neill so I'd rather not see him win the Derby.

I'm a fan of O'Neill but Churchill will be watching him like a hawk. He's an automatic toss.

Yeah..a different trainer would have me being a huge fan of this horse. Im not talking license plate changing fan...but a fan none the less:o

Stormello was impressive carving out those fractions but have to believe that Gulf has been kind to inside speed.

Curlin was best in subpar Rebel. Nice move but strongly believe he is not Derby material with three max preps under his belt

Cobalt Blue led small paceless race wire to wire.

I likes SS race in TB Derby although he got a nice inside trip tailor made to Borels riding style again. Also like AGS effort and feel that this was strongest prep yet. SS far exceeded my expectations as i will admit tried to catch a straight AGS/Most Distinguished exacta

Maybe NBLS coming back was a mirage but fact then is that he was still running at end even though others were tiring.

Notional in RS might be best effort i have seen despite CQ incident

what other type of close is there? what type of close is not a mirage?

A horse that closes in 11 and 3 when the horse in front still runs 12 and 2....C'mon how about Jazil in the Wood last year....They collapsed in front of him.

perhaps his "late" run was also a product of him re focusing? Not sure but I guess we will find out in Wood with addition of blinkers

What, it was the phoniest close of all time? They stopped completely!!

What about Jazil? He closed in the Wood, yes. The amount of the close was fairly large due to the race pace set-up, so what.

All a late close is is a pace differential at the end of the race, regardless of the speed of the leader.

The fact that No Biz was tiring less than the others and looked to have something left was not a mirage.

My point Jim, and you've become quite disagreeable lately, is that all closes are not created equal. That's it.

And my point Randall, is that of course all closes are not equal, but none of them are phoney or a mirage. They are what they are, and sometimes what you might call a phony closer ends up wearing the Roses.

Phony closers don't wear roses. They fill out superfectas....Monarchos was a fast closer. He ran fast races closing against fast horses. That's why he won....Giacomo was a one paced horse, he isn't even a closer. I'd say he's the worst Derby winner since Lil E Tee.

lil e tee won 7 if 13... i'd say giacomo was the worst since gato del sol, not lil e tee. or since sea hero....but not the worst ever certainly.

Correct me, but we discuss Beyers on here often. I believe Lil E Tee got a 93. That's super slow.

oh, so you're going by beyers....i thought it was overall accomplishment-or lack thereof.
but yeah, that's pretty slow. but if he looked good doing it, he should get his # revised upwards a bit.

Arbitrary labels if you ask me; phony closer, worst Derby winner.
Phony closers as you define them win races every day of the week.

Since I started this thread, there's been quite a few more preps. Let's take a look at the more recent ones:

Wood Memorial--this one will ruffle some feathers, and maybe I'm a bit biased because I know Nobiz is the definitive "hype" horse but if you factor ground loss in at all, Any Given Saturday arguably ran a better race. He was real wide on both turns. Nobiz did run a solid race under pressure the whole way but saved every inch of ground. But when you consider the likely odds disparity between the two horses, you have to like AGS better to be in the tri in Louisville.

Florida Derby---I wrote a thread about how I thought Beyer blew Scat Daddy's number. I originally gave him a 105 but have adjusted to 103; still 5 pts better than Beyer had it. The pace was solid and he won anyways.

Illinois Derby---this race was a product of both a crawlfest pace and a rail bias. Reporting for Duty did a very good job closing on the very slow pace, although he was hugging the rail to do it. Still, I came away more impressed by him than w/Cowtown Cat.

Ark Derby----this couldn't be more obvious. Curlin has been much the best in all three of his starts. He will be favored. Thought he was more impressive than Smarty Jones was at OP three years ago.

Blue Grass----with the incredibly slow pace, its amazing that Dominican outclosed Street Sense to win. No doubt he ran the superior race but all three of his wins are on Poly so it could be a giant leap of faith to use him at CD. But the price will still be very big and he hasn't done much wrong recently.

SA Derby---fast pace; King of the Roxy ran a very big race to do all the work and was narrowly beaten while the winner had the good pace setup.

Historically, the "best in last race" angle has been very strong and has uncovered some live longshots winners.

For the record, Lil E Tee was a far superior horse than Giacomo. 7 of 13 career and on the board every single race he ran other than the Preakness.

13-7-4-1. That my friend is a damn good horse. Don't insult his connections by comparing him to Giacomo.

His Beyer in the Derby was 107.

Huh? Scatt Daddy's a closer. . .

I think people tend to blur the derbies of Lil E Tee 1992 and Sea Hero 1993. Lil E Tee was a very good horse, Sea Hero was not good at all. The Lil E Tee race sort of collapsed for some strange reason after a mild pace, only Lil E Tee and the runner up were even running at the end. Very strange but the first two had a lot of distance from the rest. Maybe 'cause Lil E Tee was not a good name for a horse:confused: