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2MinsToPost 03-10-2007 06:24 PM

Question, Seriously
 
I am banging my head against the wall on my All Stakes Pick 4 play

After the scratch of Liquor Cabinet Master Command was the obvious single

Now, looking back, I ask myself this and ask you veteran cappers this

Should CQ been a logical single as well?

Hindsight is 20/20, but man I could have hit that Pick 4 for 3 or 4 times had I singled Master Command (which I did), gone a little deeper in the other 2 legs (even though I only missed 1 leg) and singled CQ

I feel like I dropped the ball, should have used the O'neil horse that won

Damn

hoovesupsideyourhead 03-10-2007 06:28 PM

had tw0 early pick 4s one for 700 ..64 dollar investment and the second 12 bucks inv payed a slight 350..master and quey were singles....e -stine will never win this soon..lmfao scavs:cool:

zippyneedsawin 03-10-2007 06:30 PM

On paper, CQ is a single, but I just couldn't single him either. But looking at the final payout, it was excellent considering it was really a Pick 3 with Master Commander leading it off and two morning line 2nd choices in between.

2MinsToPost 03-10-2007 06:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead
had tw0 early pick 4s one for 700 ..64 dollar investment and the second 12 bucks inv payed a slight 350..master and quey were singles....e -stine will never win this soon..lmfao scavs:cool:

stingin scavs, ouch

he was so confident, damn hooves:eek:

GPK 03-10-2007 06:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead
had tw0 early pick 4s one for 700 ..64 dollar investment and the second 12 bucks inv payed a slight 350..master and quey were singles....e -stine will never win this soon..lmfao scavs:cool:


mistake #1...listening to Scavs...

POINTGIVEN1985 03-10-2007 06:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2MinsToPost
I am banging my head against the wall on my All Stakes Pick 4 play

After the scratch of Liquor Cabinet Master Command was the obvious single

Now, looking back, I ask myself this and ask you veteran cappers this

Should CQ been a logical single as well?

Hindsight is 20/20, but man I could have hit that Pick 4 for 3 or 4 times had I singled Master Command (which I did), gone a little deeper in the other 2 legs (even though I only missed 1 leg) and singled CQ

I feel like I dropped the ball, should have used the O'neil horse that won

Damn

i dont know if you value my opinion or not , but i dont think cq was a logical single, there were alot of talented horses in that race and i would not have felt comfortable using him as a single i actually hit the other 3 and did not use cq at all, this hurts a little but my ticket only cost $24, so its not that bad.

hoovesupsideyourhead 03-10-2007 06:33 PM

jock made up the horses mind..were gonna lay back and make a run....horse says cool lets do this..

POINTGIVEN1985 03-10-2007 06:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin
On paper, CQ is a single, but I just couldn't single him either. But looking at the final payout, it was excellent considering it was really a Pick 3 with Master Commander leading it off and two morning line 2nd choices in between.

how was he a single on paper ? doug oneil has been almost as hot as pletcher and his horse had alot of tactical speed, i liked him more then cq, the local horse, the # 2 got pounded the whole way in the betting i liked him better then cq, and i also liked the other pletcher horse better then cq, i know he won, but even after the fact i dont see how he was a single

hoovesupsideyourhead 03-10-2007 06:39 PM

with the tear t pleach is on and the top jock in the country and the compitition..he was a single imo

2MinsToPost 03-10-2007 06:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
While CQ was the most accomplished on paper I don't think he was a single. He had definite doubts about 2 turns which I guess are no more. I actually didn't like Notional at all and thought Zanjero had a big chance to upset but he was no match. Ketchikan seems like he might be one that makes some noise in upciming stakes. But no, I don't think CQ would have been a good single. Were you going to use Mistical Plan?

No I was not

I used BTW's ABC logic and Mistical Plan was a B and I tossed

zippyneedsawin 03-10-2007 06:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985
how was he a single on paper ? doug oneil has been almost as hot as pletcher and his horse had alot of tactical speed, i liked him more then cq, the local horse, the # 2 got pounded the whole way in the betting i liked him better then cq, and i also liked the other pletcher horse better then cq, i know he won, but even after the fact i dont see how he was a single



He was by far the most accomplished, but as I said, I couldn't single him either.

hoovesupsideyourhead 03-10-2007 06:53 PM

my ticket was.,.7 with 3/7/8/11 with 1/7 with 1..dumb luck i guess but ill take it

hockey2315 03-10-2007 07:23 PM

I definitely don't think CQ was a strong single. . . Still wouldn't if I could do it over again. . . But I still can't believe I didn't include the O'Neill filly. . . My east-coast bias clouds my judgment way too much sometimes. . .

POINTGIVEN1985 03-10-2007 07:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin
He was by far the most accomplished, but as I said, I couldn't single him either.

he is accomplished, but up to today everything that he accomplished was at 7f or shorter and in the hopeful at the spa he got a dream setup, those are some of the reassons why i dident even put him on my ticket today

POINTGIVEN1985 03-10-2007 07:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead
my ticket was.,.7 with 3/7/8/11 with 1/7 with 1..dumb luck i guess but ill take it

my ticket was ...7/3,5,9,11/1,4/2,5... i was alive to the cq race and did not use him at all, dumb play i guess, but i really did not like him

zippyneedsawin 03-10-2007 07:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985
he is accomplished, but up to today everything that he accomplished was at 7f or shorter and in the hopeful at the spa he got a dream setup, those are some of the reassons why i dident even put him on my ticket today

Obviously a big mistake. I understand trying to beat him, and also thought several others in the race that had a chance. But, I guess I don't necessarily equate accomplish with wins. CQ did finish 2nd in two other races last year, and those aren't bad accomplishments either.

blackthroatedwind 03-10-2007 07:51 PM

I'm not at all suprised Circular Quay won but I have no idea how he could have been considered a single. You make MUCH more money over time playing against horses like him than on them. I used him defensively ( and blew up with Get Ready Bertie ) but hardly considered him a single. Truth be told he was a bit of a sucker horse, bet heavily because of his connections, and not his pps.

hoovesupsideyourhead 03-10-2007 08:04 PM

agreed but..take into account the lack of field and the fact some of these gave there all last out..he didnt have to do much but stay out of trouble and time it right..imo

blackthroatedwind 03-10-2007 08:08 PM

He was pretty impressive. Not sure what to make of him at this point.

zippyneedsawin 03-10-2007 08:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
He was pretty impressive. Not sure what to make of him at this point.


I think that's about has much love that BTW is ever going to show this horse! ;)

brianwspencer 03-10-2007 08:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
He was pretty impressive. Not sure what to make of him at this point.

He's one that I always expect to lose, but seems to come running no matter what.

With that said, obviously his style poses a problem heading towards the Derby, as traffic can kill his chances in an instant.

I also don't see a TON of speedball horses heading for the Derby yet. Were this shaping up like Derbies past, I would be inclined to love him based on a total pace meltdown, but at least at this point on the trail I'm not seeing a Sinister Minister/Keyed Entry type of pace meltdown. It may change, but in that kind of race his style could have been very effective given the speed at which he picks horses off, but this year (thus far) doesn't seem to be setting the table for a horse coming from 17th place a half mile out.

Though when he is impressive, he is darn impressive, so who knows.

blackthroatedwind 03-10-2007 08:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Though when he is impressive, he is darn impressive, so who knows.


Horses that make big sweeping runs almost always look better than they are. And, as you said, with his style he opens himself up to trouble. Deep closers are rarely Derby winners.

I still don't see him winning at 1 1/4, but I have never been a fan of this horse, and while he was better than I truly expected today I am far from sold.

zippyneedsawin 03-10-2007 08:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brianwspencer
He's one that I always expect to lose, but seems to come running no matter what.

With that said, obviously his style poses a problem heading towards the Derby, as traffic can kill his chances in an instant.

I also don't see a TON of speedball horses heading for the Derby yet. Were this shaping up like Derbies past, I would be inclined to love him based on a total pace meltdown, but at least at this point on the trail I'm not seeing a Sinister Minister/Keyed Entry type of pace meltdown. It may change, but in that kind of race his style could have been very effective given the speed at which he picks horses off, but this year (thus far) doesn't seem to be setting the table for a horse coming from 17th place a half mile out.

Though when he is impressive, he is darn impressive, so who knows.


I admit I've always liked this guy, but certainly understand the skeptism of others about his derby chances... especially considering his running style. But so far, I don't see any other horses seperating themselves from this 3yo class.. so my attitude is he's as good as any i've seen.

brianwspencer 03-10-2007 08:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Horses that make big sweeping runs almost always look better than they are. And, as you said, with his style he opens himself up to trouble. Deep closers are rarely Derby winners.

I still don't see him winning at 1 1/4, but I have never been a fan of this horse, and while he was better than I truly expected today I am far from sold.

I pretty much always think he is going to lose. I've never been on the bandwagon, though I might slightly be on it now.

With that said, I think that without the antics on the backstretch by Ketchikan and Co., that that one could have made a far better showing and actually had a shot at the win. When it all boils down, I was more impressed with that one than CQ, but it's hard to really knock CQ today because he got the job done with room to spare and looked good doing it.

blackthroatedwind 03-10-2007 08:25 PM

I don't disagree that his effort, especially being so lightly raced, was OK. Why was he on the front end...in fast fractions no less?

brianwspencer 03-10-2007 08:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I don't disagree that his effort, especially being so lightly raced, was OK. Why was he on the front end...in fast fractions no less?

Not sure, but he looked real bad pulling towards the front. It wasn't a pretty thing to see when he took the lead on the backstretch. From mid-turn to mid-backstretch the horse was a total mess and totally out of his jock's control. It was awful to watch and in retrospect to think about the energy wasted on such antics.

ArlJim78 03-10-2007 08:28 PM

I've been a fan from the beginning because CQ has on several occasions shown a burst, something very athletic. With that said i am in no way sold that with another 3/16 in heavy traffic he will have what it takes. The only reason I'm keeping an open mind relative to CQ and the derby is because of a lack of real standouts amongst the competition this year.

blackthroatedwind 03-10-2007 08:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78
I've been a fan from the beginning because CQ has on several occasions shown a burst, something very athletic. With that said i am in no way sold that with another 3/16 in heavy traffic he will have what it takes. The only reason I'm keeping an open mind relative to CQ and the derby is because of a lack of real standouts amongst the competition this year.


I can't disagree with the last part. It seems that more and more these days horses move up simply by not running.

The Gotham was downright ugly. They barely went relatively faster than NW1X NY Breds in the finale. The winner had a perfect trip and was the beneficiary of many poorly judged rides. I simply don't understand why these riders don't seem to have any game plan going into the race. Speedballs went 24 and a piece and 49 and a piece and other speed types were in full grab. Shouldn't the favorite have taken advantage of his post and come out running and maybe try to outrun Cowtown Cat for the tuck on the first turn? How about Coa on Longley? What was his plan? That entire race was a disaster...save patient Ramon who luckily drew the rail.

ArlJim78 03-10-2007 08:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I can't disagree with the last part. It seems that more and more these days horses move up simply by not running.

The Gotham was downright ugly. They barely went relatively faster than NW1X NY Breds in the finale. The winner had a perfect trip and was the beneficiary of many poorly judged rides. I simply don't understand why these riders don't seem to have any game plan going into the race. Speedballs went 24 and a piece and 49 and a piece and other speed types were in full grab. Shouldn't the favorite have taken advantage of his post and come out running and maybe try to outrun Cowtown Cat for the tuck on the first turn? How about Coa on Longley? What was his plan? That entire race was a disaster...save patient Ramon who luckily drew the rail.

Yeah, speaking of Ramon, the guy showed patience and some balls.

brianwspencer 03-10-2007 08:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I can't disagree with the last part. It seems that more and more these days horses move up simply by not running.

The Gotham was downright ugly. They barely went relatively faster than NW1X NY Breds in the finale. The winner had a perfect trip and was the beneficiary of many poorly judged rides. I simply don't understand why these riders don't seem to have any game plan going into the race. Speedballs went 24 and a piece and 49 and a piece and other speed types were in full grab. Shouldn't the favorite have taken advantage of his post and come out running and maybe try to outrun Cowtown Cat for the tuck on the first turn? How about Coa on Longley? What was his plan? That entire race was a disaster...save patient Ramon who luckily drew the rail.

Well obviously. How Sweet He Is ran second last, right? Clearly it was a strange race if he wasn't bounding down the track to get the win by a nose.

Forget it ever happened.

blackthroatedwind 03-10-2007 08:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brianwspencer
Well obviously. How Sweet He Is ran second last, right? Clearly it was a strange race if he wasn't bounding down the track to get the win by a nose.

Forget it ever happened.


He was second to last. Please....you made me nervous for a second.

brianwspencer 03-10-2007 08:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
He was second to last. Please....you made me nervous for a second.

Also known as barely out the of money.

blackthroatedwind 03-10-2007 08:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brianwspencer
Also known as barely out the of money.

To more people than we care to believe.

hoovesupsideyourhead 03-10-2007 08:51 PM

im no fan of quay..but vs these he looked good ..yet anouther weak field..he will get smoked in the derby imo and take lott of cash down..with em..and how can you guys even follow ny .the inner is evil..back away..

brianwspencer 03-10-2007 08:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
To more people than we care to believe.

Of course you know I'm joking (just gotta make sure these days) and still bitter from the last time he ran.

zippyneedsawin 03-10-2007 08:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead
im no fan of quay..but vs these he looked good ..yet anouther weak field..he will get smoked in the derby imo and take lott of cash down..with em..and how can you guys even follow ny .the inner is evil..back away..


I think most 3yo stakes races have been 'weak fields' so far this year.

hoovesupsideyourhead 03-10-2007 08:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin
I think most 3yo stakes races have been 'weak fields' so far this year.

true..snobiz has problems ..made scat look like a good horse..yesh i hope matz puts that one in the mix...


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