Sir Greeley...no 2nd this weekend
 

Unfortunately Sir Greeley won't be able to continue his unbelievable streak of second place finishes this weekend. He's got a chip in his hind ankle. There was no damage done, and the prognosis is good. He's gunna have an operation and get some time off. Hopefully he'll be able to make a comeback this summer.

It's too bad, the Richter Scale, Carter, and Met Mile were all coming up soft so he could have had a piece of all three. Hopefully he comes back strong although I don't know what in the second half he'll find as easy as the Richter Scale and the Carter.

Don't cry, sniper! :(

I know that you're a little woozy from this tragic news....but how exactly are you aware that the Met Mile, being run in three months, is coming up soft?

The three races collectively certainly are coming up weak. Unless you think Discreet Cat is going to be back from the DWC in that time I can't really think of too many horses that are extremely scary at a mile right now. Sun King will probably be there but he has just as much of a tendency as Sir Greeley to run second so he isn't someone particularly scary. Latent Heat could likely be the best horse there which isn't saying a ton. Keyed Entry I suppose. Half Ours if he does it for you. Not exactly any HOY candidates in that group.

All kidding aside, it's February 26th, somehow I think there will be some horses in the Met that can run a little bit ( and Half Ours is not one of them ). I understand what you are saying about the division, but you are also forgetting one thing that COULD make the Carter stronger than last year, and that's polytrack. The Commonwealth came up unusually full last year, which may well have affected the Carter, and perhaps this year more will opt for the Carter. The likelihood that the Carter is as weak as last year is next to nil.

It's just way too early to decide these races are " coming up weak ".

Groovy.

You seem to be up on things. Same me some replay time:

in how many of those (CLOSE) 2nd place finishes did SG NOT change leads in the stretch?

Hal's Hope is the only one that I can think of, but there may have been more. Johnny said that he should have won the race if the horse had changed leads. Whether it's almost falling on his face, or not changing leads he usually finds a way to come up just short.

love that horse.....always puts in a rock solid effort

The Ohio bred that won the Bay Shore went one-full second faster than the Carter winner, on the same card, last year.

Last year's Carter was such an eye-sore, that it wouldn't take much to be better than last years edition.

Smokey Stover is running in No Cal next, and retaining Gryder. With the $5 million purse for the Golden Shaeen in Dubai, that race is really bound to hurt the Carter....though last year, Cal Breds ran 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in it.

Perhaps something will emerge soon enough---perhaps something like a Bright One, who's flashed impressive raw talent before and is working very strongly for his return. I have a feeling the Carter and Met will probably both be sub-par as well.

I guess if you actually said who the horse was, Too Much Bling, your point would have carried no weight?

Everyone knows he was a more talented horse than the Sir Greeley's of the world when he was right. Ohio bred or not.

Bright One is running in the Richter Scale...right?

Smokey Stover could easily come for the Carter. Very good chance for him to get a Grade 1.

So, based on that, in a three horse field Sir Greeley was doing no better than filling out the tri.

You know I always do those things....I'm silly like that.

But yeah, it's not like TMB was any overwhelmingly strong early season 3-year-old sprinter.


There's a horse (Fabulous Strike) who got dusted at Tampa Downs last winter who could played a huge roll in those races. He also went to Penn National to break his maiden, where he was united with the Todd Beattie hop and got real good real fast. He still hasn't had an offical recorded workout this year though.

I know about Fabulous Strike....and in fact bet him when he won his first allowance at Belmont and when he was fourth in the Riva Ridge. Last I heard he was being rested and was supposed to return soon. 7F may be a stretch but he too could be pointing for the Carter. His mid 110s at Mountaineer may not transfer to a school zone but he's a very fast horse.

Smokey Stover is a nice horse but he had a pretty good setup when Bordonaro and Proud Tower Too killed each other w/suicidal fractions. He's another one who has to prove to me he can with away from California (i.e. race day Bute).

His last Beyer was a 119...and his race two back could have been in the low 120's if not cut loose, Which means he somehow ran the fastest figure in a crop that included Bernardini, Discreet Cat, and Barbaro.

But yeah, he did get incredibly sweet trips in those two races, over a real funky track both times. I have a hunch that trainers hop will work anywhere, I'm just not so sure how authentic those last two races really were

Weird....most pace people I know had that as a slow paced race. Everybodys pace figures certainly indicates that. And Proud Tower Too and Bordonaro never hooked each other in that race.

Considering how well Cal based sprinters historically perform when they ship East...that is certainly no worry.

I'm not sure he'll run in the Carter though, as he is a gelding, so the Grade 1 win doesn't mean anything. Which is why he passed the Malibu.

I see way too many big ( or relatively big ) figs from Mountaineer that never seem to translate to other tracks ( it's like Delaware on speed ). However, that horse ran some legitimately fast races last year. I think at 6F he may be genuinely good. I am skeptical about him going further. He looked strong as they headed for home in the Woody Stephens ( used to be the Riva Ridge ) and came up empty in the last furlong.

I agree a bit with DrugS that his win was a little more solid than you do but I would be more concerned that nobody else gained an inch of ground and essentially Smokey Stover was right on the pace.

But, you're right, he has to win outside of California, but he MIGHT be pretty good. Sir Greeley, the original subject of this thread, is an established horse. An OK one....but not as good as Smokey Stover might be. If I told you right now that one of them will hit the board in this year's BC sprint, Smokey Stover would be 100-1 favorite over Sir Greeley assuming he hadn't gotten hurt.

He sat three or four lengths off a pair of tigers, who both had Grade 1 sprint wins over the track, and looped around them with alarming ease.

I think none of the closers gained an inch of ground because the horses behind the top three were vastly inferior to the top 3.

If any horse out of the race could be knocked for the fact that no one gained much ground---it would be Proud Tower Too, who was loose on an unchallenged lead.

He, came back to just miss to Latent Heat in the Grade 2 San Carlos, while running unquestionably the better race.

I don't see why SS needs to prove he can win in the East. It's not like Idiot Proof and Shaggy Mane had any great troubles recently. I think his form will improve markedly if shipped East.

Aaron Gryder is bound to screw that horse up though.

He has to prove he can IF he runs here...and if he does I think he will do well. But, he still has to do it.

The two horses you mentioned took advantage of a speed bias. Doesn't IEAH own one of them?

That was not a speed biased track that day IMO. Not even close

Many horses ran well racing wide and off the pace---including the Matz bum that looped around Most Distinugished.

The four horses involved in the pace battle in the six furlong maiden race all came back to run markedly better as well

And the two horses that tried to close behind the IEAH horse you mentioned just finished one-two in a stake 9 days ago.

The fact is that other than that insane closer I bet in the sprint nobody gained significant ground in any of the races....other than the Matz horse you mentioned who got a pretty juicy setup.

By the way, did you think Most Distinguished maybe turned a corner or just met a very weak field. I want to believe the former but am inclined to think the latter. He has run some reasonably fast races before.

I think I bet the allowance caliber Sugar Swirl in that stake...and the wildly overrated Onaag McCool was a heavy favorite in that stake.

25/1 or so Storm in May and the 65/1 or so Matz winner weren't the only two to gain significant ground. The logical Rescue Party won while wide from mid-pack. Many non-winners also made up signifcant ground. They include Dry Martini, Fearless Vison, Ididntdoanything, and while Swap Fliparoo didn't make up large amounts of ground, she passed all the trash and went from last to 2nd behind the IEAH No Cal juice job.


I am leaning the same way you are with Most Distinguished. The field probably flattered him some.

What I've noticed over the years about horses like him---who always seem to lose a battle--is that when they do finally win, many times it seems to be by a large margin in no doubt about it style.

I think Sunshine Millions day was a " speed friendly " track. I thought the 25-1 shot you mentioned should have been 6-1.

Hopefully :)
Zito must have been thrilled to finally get the win. His first race behind Pegasus Wind looked rather promising and then...

Dont forget Ramsgate if Bobby ships him East for Met Mile. Or possibly a distance challenged 3YO ala Holy Bull will point for it.....that would be interesting

If he stays in one piece, I'd think that Chatain might be a nice middle distance horse.

Think you might be reading wrong or what I wrote was confusing. Meant Holy Bull for 3YO aspect not distance challenged aspect. And I am well aware of his 3YO accomplishments

Yeah, I would guess he is probably pointing for both the Carter and Met.