kip devile 9/2 vs. showing up 6/1
 

strange ml. i was hoping for a much better price on kd. they are REALLLLY high on this horse and they are expecting a huge effort.

Showing Up will be the favorite or second choice. You might get a price on KD because of his post. Does the horse even have a jockey yet?

they told me the jock who had been riding him in texas was able to get off his mounts and is going to ride him. the jocks name is quincy hamilton

I'll take Cornelio over that guy any day of the week. Showing Up raced in a field of 19 last race, lets see how the others handle a big field. I honestly don't see this race being close.

you continue to make points I don't get. You like the fact that showing up raced in a big field and has gained that experience and are willing to disregard that he has never had experience racing on the turf. It is impossible to forecast a horse to gallop when never been over a surface in race conditions. The size of the field also helps KD more than SU because kd will be on the lead while SU will have to work his way through traffic. Not sure I am getting your points

Showing Up wins this for fun IMO.

I can assure you of one thing, Showing Up is a better horse on the turf than on the dirt. SU can run on the lead or just off the lead. Did you miss the derby where he ran stride for stride with Barbaro until the last 1/8th mile. Too bad Barbaro isn't around, he would have won this one for fun, even if he had just raced in the Belmont. KD is going to have a tough time getting to the lead from post 14. This isn't the garbage he has been racing against in TX or at Remington Park. Firm turf and SU beats him by 10-12.

Morning lines are no more than one person's opinion of what the odds will be when the race goes off. If you asked 5 guys to set the morning line for this race, you'd probably get 5 different prices on Kip Deville and Showing Up, ranging from 9/2 to 8/1 on Kip, and 5/2 to 6/1 on Showing Up.

Not sure why anyone even looks at them. They are definetly no barometer to gauge a race's odds.

Agreed, but the guy who made the line appears to be making it on his opinion, not on what it will be at post. No rational person can think Showing Up will go off at 6-1.

"I can assure you of one thing, Showing Up is a better horse on the turf than on the dirt."


Why? Because one person thinks so? I mean the horse worked brilliantly on grass. Big deal, so do a lot of dirt horses who make the switch. Doesnt mean the horse will take to the grass in a 12 horse field when the gates open.

"No rational person can think Showing Up will go off at 6-1."

I totally agree Boldruler. This horse has no shot of going off at 6/1. Who is this fool who set the line?

The horse has an explosive turn of foot. The guys at Belmont were kidding and saying Barbaro was lucky Showing Up never got a shot at him on the turf because it would have been a dogfight. Considering Barbaro was arguably the best 3yr old turf horse in a decade, I like what I have been hearing about the Jackson's horse.

If Showing Up could have been that competitive with Barbaro on the turf and Barbaro was one arguably the best 3 year old turfer in a decade, think of what Showing Up will do against these gerbils. Should be a mortal lock.

That is how I am betting it, but he still has to live up to what they are saying. It looks like a pretty weak field to me. If he wins this one, I bet he gets some stiffer competition in the graded $1million race on July 15, although all the top 3yr olds are staying on the dirt as preps for the Travers. I could see him winning the first 3 legs and then getting beaten on BC day by the top 4yr olds, but this group here doesn't impress me at all.

Yeah, ok, sure. The same barn has also told us 100 times that Funny Cide was all set and fixed up and ready to fire a huge shot right before all the losses.
So I'm supposed to empty out on a horse because the same barn says so? No thanks.

I doubt Tagg said anything about Funny Cide. He doesn't say anything about any of his horses. My info is from a guy who knows the owner and he said 100x that Barbaro would romp in the derby. I didn't see you making that pick. You haven't exactly been red hot with your picks lately, from what I can tell. I would hope you didn't bet on Showing Up in this one. ;)

I like Showing Up as a horse, and I think he will do very well in next year's Met Mile, but I am dubious of his chances against top competition at any distance over a mile.

As for accepting based on opinions of his connections that he will excel on the grass, I'm strongly in Mike's corner, as working on the grass and racing on it are two totally different things. I will happily bet against him at what will probably be very underlaid odds this weekend based on reputation. He will beat me first time on the grass, especially at 1 3/16ths, as horses like Showing Up dramatically underperform their odds in these types of situations.

The funny thing is that in my heart I will probably be rooting for him but making money in this game is not about rooting with your heart. Showing Up is a bad bet in this race at any odds under 6-1 and probably at odds under 10-1.

Doesn't make a damn bit of difference what his odds are... you either like him to win or you don't. If he was 30-1, would you like him to win? LOL

I couldn't disagree more. Making money betting horses depends very strongly on how accurate is your assessment of any horse's chances. If you only bet horses whose odds were higher than their chances of winning you would be a huge winner in this game.

The simple fact is that Showing Up's odds will not reflect his chances of winning. Not even close.

If he was 30-1 I would make a huge win bet on him. His chances of winning are certainly greater than 3.33%. What I don't believe is that they are substantially greater than 10%.

He got a ton out of the 10F in the derby. Horse is very fit. As for the Met Mile, I think they will go for the BC Mile on the Turf next year instead of taking on horses on the dirt. He is just a better horse on the turf, although I understand most won't believe it until after this weekend. Distance could be a concern but not against this bunch. He is a much different horse than you saw him 7 weeks ago. People keep forgetting he ran a 10F race after running 2 weeks earlier. No bruise or puncture wound this time around.

You are indeed pretty stupid. I hit the Derby tri for two bucks using three horses on top(Barabro, AP Warrior, and SNS) keying Stepp 2nd and 3rd underneath. Now if you want to dispute that please fell free to ask about 13 people on here who called me or emailed me before the race or Lansdon, who I was with on Derby Day. If you would like we could make a nice little wager and I could fax you the IRS signings of the tickets.
And sorry, but very few owners are going to have as good an opinion on handicapping a race as about 15 people on here. Its an opinion, nothing more.
My "info" on here rarely if ever comes from a trainer, because like Blackthroat I don't like "trainer info". My info comes from a clocker who is the most respected private clocker in NY, and is known all over. he is there every morning in the dark and his opinion and tiimes are sought out by Zito, Frankel, Dutrow, Kimmel, and many others. He used to train, and trained grade one winners. Hes older now, and clocks. If Joe says he saw it, I take it as gospel. How would a trainer or owner know better than a good clocker? I mean a good clocker catches the fractions correctly and furthermore, one who used to train also pays attention to the way they are striding out and switching leads. Basically, owner and trainer info is useless, unless they asked the opinion of a good clocker.

I guess the difference in the way I see it is that I don't look at odds in the same way. I look at the chart and sheets myself and pick who I think is the winner and not who the majority thinks... if he was 91-1 and I thought he would win, I would bet him and the same would go if he was 2-1. I think that if you like a horse to win, you should bet him to win no matter what his odds are. JMO.

This is simply a losing strategy.

First, and most simply, if you liked a 91-1 shot as much as a 2-1 shot you should bet a minimum of ten times as much on the 91-1 shot.

If you're rooting, and not betting, fine...odds are irrelevent. But, if you're betting, the odds are of paramount importance.

Ok. I watched a guy who used to post on ESPN site, tell people for weeks that Barbaro would romp. Didn't see you say that. Nice you picked a tri for $2, I actually lost $1K on the race betting SNS, but I watched my friend make more money than most people make in a year betting on the horse in future pools and on derby day and he told me the same thing about this weekend. I will go with the guy who I have watched collect and who posted on 3 sites how Barbaro couldn't lose. He said SU couldn't be beaten just like Barbaro. He also knows a little more than you and your clocker friend when it comes to the horse business.

I agree. I just won't make a big bet on short priced horses. There is no return on investment. What is the point of risking 1K to make $800 on a 4-5 shot. You need to win more than 50% of the time.

I HIGHLY doubt your friend knows more about this game than Joe Petrucione. In fact, it is near impossible.

No, I can assure you he does not know more. As a matter of fact, the clocker I refer to made close to 60 thousand dollars betting Barbaro that day and called him before the race to be the biggest cinch he ever saw in his life off his last work. Its only because he told me that that i used him on top in the trifecta(the 11,500 trifecta). In turn I helped him by telling him to make sure he used Stepp underneath.
I just called him right this minute toask him about the two grass works that he had and he said that they were very good and that he was a very live horse on saturday. I then asked him if off those workouts if he thought the horse compared to English Channel now(you said he was better) and he began to howl and laugh. He asked why i would ask that so I explained. He asked me where I find nuts like that.

Did he say who else he thought was a live horse?

Its absolutely impossible. He may not be the best gambler, and by his own admission he isnt a good handicapper. But noone alive on this planet knows more about watching horses train and understanding works and traning like Joe. Hes relied upon by all the names I mentioned earlier to tell THEM how THEIR horses are doing. Imagine that? Guys who have won all three legs of the tri crown, trained champs, etc call him to see HOW HE THINKS their horses are doing. Trust me boldruler, you are talking out of your ass on this one.

He said Pletchers horse was just as good Cajun(on works). I asked him if he was put to heads up matchup who he would take, and he paused briefly and said Pletcher. Roman Dynasty.

That's ironic, because those are my two choices at this point. :D Thanks for the info, Mike.

I will e-mail him but there is a horse with some connection to Cigar he liked. Don't know if it was the Mott connection of the AP connection. I am just betting win, but my friend's brother, who is a pretty good handicapper likes Rock Lobster to give Showing Up a race. I personally think Stream Cat is the only horse that could beat him.

Rock Lobster is a very slow horse, and anyone who likes him cannot be a good handicapper.

No good trainer goes asking clockers how their horse is doing. They know. I remember for the Derby my friend telling me how the clockers didn't even pick up one of Barbaro's works. These clockers are good at what they do, but unless they know what a trainer wants out of the work it is pointless. Also, clockers at belmont see a horse work over the turf one day a week, on Sunday mornings. If it was dirt I would say the clockers know their stuff, but turf works are so rare that no clocker could give an honest opinion on how a horse worked. Showing Up has completely different action on the turf, not the same horse as on the dirt.

Cajun- I dont agree with your philosophy on odds. I agree with Blackthroat and Bold Ruler on this one. Even if you think Showing Up is a logical winner, you should very well care what the odds are. The higher the odds, means more profit if you are right, so you should increase your bet. If I liked Showing Up as much as Bold Ruler, I would bet a higher dollar amount at odds of 6/1 than I would if he was 2/1.

This is a crazy game and you need all the help you can get with odds. You need to take your heart and ego out of it when you are betting money. Too many things can go wrong in a horse race...

Just read some of the threads on this board lately, seems like almost every horse that doesnt win has some sort of an excuse.

Showing Up is a complete bet againt in my eyes. I would be totally surprised if Showing Up is in the top 3. Stream Cat looks much the best, but there is some talent in this field. I don't know who I like so far, but Showing Up and Rock Lobster are out in my book.

I agree with that, Tim. Kevin will tell you, I bet with my heart WAY TOO OFTEN. LOL :eek:

Better give Zito a call and explain to him that hes not a good trainer. Then call Kimmel, call Dutrow, call Frankel, etc. He was a trainer, thats why hes the best. he does understand everything.

He can call Aidan O'Brien, Asmussen, Pletcher.....good post Oracle.

I don't know if he is a good handicapper or just someone that gets a lot of inside information, but he had more to win on Barbaro than your $2 triple paid.