3/30 (GP): Florida Derby Day
 

Great set of races for the Mandatory Rainbow 6 payout (if it's not hit on Friday). Hoping the dicey weather stays away.

It will be a marathon day with early action from Dubai and 14 races at Gulfstream.

Looking forward to enjoying it at Gulfstream. Good Racing Luck

Have a few beers for me Gus!!

Yeah, will do. Also, plan on having my traditional Manhattan Clam Chowder after Race 5. It's solid, but not as good as it was at Calder.

I love the red chowder. Boston airport terminal B has Rhode Island chowder that is one of the best I ever had.

Feels chalky to me.
4th.... How does Prince Lucky lose?
5th.... Im using only the 1. The Chad Brown horse he beat last time is OK.
6th.....Im using 4,6. Im trying to beat the ML chalk, but i highly doubt shes favored at post time.
8th.....3,6
10th.... 6,8,9 some prices here. Im confident i have the winner with those 3.
13th.....1 pressed with a little 3,6,8
14th..... 1 LOCK CINCH CANT BE DEFEATED

Code of Honor getting post #9 seems like a bad draw for him. He got a really nice inside trip last time with a perfect pace set up for him. Both the pace and his trip will probably be worse for him this time around. I’m tossing him.

Maximum Security is a complete wildcard. I agree with Steve Haskin (I think that’s who talked about him on the show) you almost can’t handicap the horse. The first 3 starts show very good sprint speed but the ability to run some more. The pedigree is interesting with AP Indy on the dam side...but the other horses on that side aren’t very impressive. And he’s faced almost no one. My biggest concern is if Mott wants to rate with Hidden Scroll and there’s no pressure on the pace, is it a possibility that Maximum Security gets the lead and just runs away with it?

I think you'll get some pace here from a few others. Jonny V will give Code of Honor a nice ride should be okay from 9 hole to get in position as 7 and 8 horse should be pushing to lead. I'm going 6 deep here. Its a fun betting race and feel I need coverage.

Who are your 6? Hidden Scroll, Current, Harvey Wallbanger, Bourbon War, Maximum Security, and Code of Honor?

The way I see it, the two most likely outcomes are: (1) Hidden Scroll rates well and wins or (2) He doesn’t and Bourbon War takes it. But these preps have been hard to predict. With the way things have been going, I don’t know if I’d even be surprised if Bodexpress breaks his maiden here.

Right on for my 6. Think any of them can win but if I had to narrow it down it would be 3, 4 and 9. Harvey looks ready to roll and Bourbon and code of honor are will be there. Good luck

What about race 9,11,&12 ?

6 deep is insane. If you need a backup its Code of Honor.

Ill post later. Ill say this in the maiden turf race i hope the Pletcher is chalk. I could 6 deep and not have that horse.

Agreed. I don’t really like Current but Pletcher seems to be pushing the right buttons right now so not sure he can be completely overlooked. I think I’m going to roll with Hidden Scroll and Bourbon War.

That’s going to be an interesting race. Hopefully we have nice weather tomorrow.

Race 9....I'm using 1,2,10,12. I'm confident I have the winner.
Race 11..... I'm using 3,5.
Race 7..... 2,3,10,11,13
Race 12.... Pressing 1,3.....Backing up w/ 8,9

Haven’t looked at Race 7 but I like a lot of the same horses as you in the other races. You don’t like the #11 in Race 12?

I do not.

In the ninth race the 4 hoss is out of Henny Hues. She was was a stone cold runner. You might want to include at a price.

Harvey Wallbanger gets the perfect closing trip up the rail and wins by a head.:)....and give me 15/1.....

Gulfstream Park 3/23/2019 Dirt 4F 47.10 Breezing 1/100

I wonder how they will bet the big race ?

Seems like everyone is against Social Paranoia. On paper I was going to be against him, then re-watching his replays I didn't find a ton to dislike. Ran OK facing decent on dirt, but whatever. When switched to the turf he ran pretty well with only the very solid Forty Under and Somelikeithotbrown defeating him with mild trips...off since September but it's Pletcher at Gulfstream...what am I missing?

Also, if anyone has any take on any of the firsters in there it'd be very welcome...I personally really like Freedom's Flight. Overbold has a big of longshot appeal. Clear Blue Sky if drawing in is worth consideration. Those + Pletcher and the firsters are my considerations but would prefer to narrow.

I still think Hidden Scroll will be pretty short. For every detractor there are 3 people who still think he's special. I think his odds will be "-to 5" ...

Feels like Bourbon War will take more money than Code of Honor is just my sense...I wanted to talk myself into Code of Honor for that reason but I just kept re-watching that race feeling like Code of Honor got the all-time trip and that, square as this thought is, Bourbon War will relish the added ground.

I feel like Bourbon War will be more 2-1 or 5-2 and Code of Honor could drift. Maximum Security of course will basically make or break everyone's odds and I have no real guess as to where he ends up.

Just my take.

Humbling day so far.
Gulf 10th
Big double
6,8 with 3,5
Prices on the 6,8 are way way way 2 big.

My head spinning too.
Alive to 1-2-3-4 onto Harvey Wallbanger for the miracle get out

Thank you, blinkers on in the 8th.

Man...I give up.

Lights out after the first quarter. Derby going to be very tough pick

Javier rode poorly those last 2 races.

Bodexpress now with 40 Derby points. Such a weird situation. The Lexington is going to be interesting. Might see a horse or two steal some points and get into the Derby that way.

The Lexington is only 20 points to the winner now.

I know - but if you’re a horse like Anothertwistafate, Country House, Sueno, or Mucho Gusto, maybe that gets you into the top 20. Some of those horses could get bumped down depending on what happens next weekend. Mucho Gusto is listed as possible for it on HRN.

Mucho Gusto is a sprinter. Been saying that for months.

You can't fault him for caving late after that ridiculous pace at Sunland (and he did battle back far a brief spell at the top of the lane). He settled well when stalking the pacesetter in the Robert Lewis, rallied smartly on the far turn, and pulled clear emphatically down the stretch. He also pulled clear of the rest and finished up well when runner up in the Los Al Futurity after setting a modest tempo.

Where he probably falls down is his class level. Improbable tore him a new one in the latter race. Despite that, if I was convinced he would be taken off the engine in the Kentucky Derby, I think he could have a live longshot look.

That said, I would love to see him in the Allen Jerkens at 7 furlongs (or the Malibu at the end of the year). In general, horses that can handle a middle distance have an advantage over true sprinters in extended sprints.

This is all fair. I just always love these fast horses, who feel a bit distance challenged turning back. A horse like Country House could also be a beast at 7f. He needs pace and he'd get it.

Yep, McKinzie is a perfect example. If he gets collared at short odds in the Big Cap, he might be an enticing price in the Met Mile.

You are dramatically overrating Country House. He's just not that good.

You may be right. I think he can win at longer distances but sprints may suit him.

The thing with Country House - to me - is that he isn’t that good right now, but I feel like he’s still scratching the surface of his potential. But I guess at some point I should look at what he’s actually done and not what I think he is capable of.

Disappointed in Harvey Banger but I would run him in the Belmont. I was hoping that I wouldn't have to pick a B.Baffert runner in the derby but it looks like I'll be picking a B.Baffert runner in the derby. :(