Tampa Tuesday 02-12-08
 

pm rain in the forecast today. Not sure when it will start. I've handicapped for fast/firm because I looked at it last night and had no clue it was going to rain.

Race 7 - Hcp 16000s About 1 1/16 Turf

6 - Starlight Serenade - Ran a big one off a brief freshening against much tougher. Centeno off is not a huge concern here as he has gone over to his main man Ness. A repeat of his last will crush these.
5 - Sir Swervalot - Horse for the course with the Centeno/Ness magic. Rattled off several in a row last year in front running fashion.

Race 8 - Clm 16000 1 1/16 Dirt

3 - Prince Nick - Back to Gerald Bennett after a one race stay with DeMasi. Right back to his winning ways.
2 - Admiral's Arch - Drops to a level below his claim price. The all important Ness switch from Ramgeet to his go to guy.
1 - Big Tex - Looks to have the lead from the rail in a short field. Might not look back.

Race 9 - OC 32k/N2X Abt 5.0f Turf

1 - Bikini Atoll - The one to catch from the rail.
2 - Fast Hand - The gap between races are a bit of a concern for this one, but she ran huge in December beating Bikini Atoll.
6 - Remember Shirley - Willing to give this one another chance on the blades. The first turf try was dull. She's a better horse now and will be flying late.
7 - Offbeat Fashion - Not a huge fan of Euros making their first US start going 5f. They tend to break slowly and leave themselves too much work to do late. That said, Clement looks to have this one ready to go. They thought enough of her to throw her to the wolves in the Irish 1000 Guineas last year. Scr
11 - Jp'shanna - Draws in, must overcome the outside post. Fits in perfectly with the top two choices.

Race 10 - Clm 6250 1 1/16 Dirt

6 - Full Exertion - Positive jock switch, slight drop in class and not much to beat = potential winner.
8 - Seducing Mr. G - Positive jock switch, stretch out to a distance that the horse has won twice in two races and not much to beat = potential winner.
10 - Ravishing Ruby - If Willie can settle this one down, she may be the one to beat. Has enough speed to overcome the outside post. Wire to wire candidate. Did I mention, there isn't much to beat here? Scr
4 - Cruzan Fling - Keeps dropping to find the right level. Two wins over this surface.

Small Ticket:
5,6/1,2,3/1,2,6/4,6,8 = $54

Big Ticket:
5,6/1,2,3,4,5/1,2,6,11/4,6,8 = $120

GL

Interesting firster in today's 4th, 1 - East Coaster has been working at the Ocala Training Center for her debut, but tossed in a nice (for 12.5k MCL horses) breeze over the Tampa surface on Saturday. She's by Graeme Hall who has been more than adequate with first time starters and with a Kirk Zaidie firster in the race and under the radar connections, she will be a juicy price.

Her full brother won at first asking, although it was going longer, she looks to have enough speed to hang with these. She does not have to be much to beat this bunch. The highest lifetime Beyer in the race is a 41. I am going to try to single her in the pick 3's revolving around this race and see if we can get her to pop from the inside at big odds.

GL

Tuesday, February 12, 2008

TRACK: Fast
TURF: Firm
Portable rail: at 0

Weather: Mostly Cloudy � mid 70�s

Pick 6 CARRYOVER: $24,134.27


RACE 1 No Changes
Post Time 12:35

RACE 2 #2-+2 #7-+2 #10-jockey TBA
Post Time 1:02

RACE 3 #3-+1 #11-+4
Post Time 1:29

RACE 4 #6-+2
#7-Scratched(Alie�s Love Story)
#11-+1
Post Time 1:56

RACE 5 #10-Scratched(Ballerina Bunny)
Post Time 2:23

RACE 6 #3-+4
Post Time 2:50

RACE 7 (Turf) #1-+1 #10-+2
#11-+5 #12-+1
#13-Scratched(Judith�s Lake)
#14-Scratched(Dancer�s Legacy)
Post Time 3:17

RACE 8 No Changes
Post Time 3:44

RACE 9 (Turf)
#7-Scratched(Offbeat Fashion)
#11-jockey P. Morales
#12-Scratched(Mo�s Prize)
#13-Scratched(Whitefish)
#14-Scratched(Queen Amira)
Post Time 4:11

RACE 10 #5-jockey W. Galvez
#10-Scratched(Ravishing Ruby)
Post Time 4:38

Bah. I capped for Fast/Firm too. If it rains then I will just pass. There are a number of AEs that would have to be included too depending on scratches. Will update with my actuals tickets later.

Race 7 - Tons of speed in this race and should set up for a closer. At this low level, a lot of these older horses have shown races in their last 10 that can beat this field. Going deep should I play back ups.
A - 6 Starlight Serenade
A - 12 Manchu Prince
B - 3 Bridled Quest
B - 4 Mesawmi
B - 5 Sir Swervalot
B - 8 Dinner in Odem

Race 8 - Not a lot of pace in this race. Perhaps Big Tex or Prince Nick coming out of sprints will lead. Must include both plus the class dropper Admiral's Arch and the in form Systamatic Saint.
A - 1 Big Tex
A - 2 Admiral's Arch
A - 3 Prince Nick
B - 4 Systamatic Saint

Race 9 - Looking for those close to the front. Have to use the Euro even though he may not like the short distance. Connections and class are so strong that he is a must include.
A - 1 Bikini Atoll
A - 2 Fast Hand
A - 11 Jp'shanna
B - 6 Remember Shriley

Race 10 - Typical low level claimer. Will take the 4 favorites and most in form horses.
A - 6 Full Exertion
B - 4 Cruzan Fling
B - 8 Seducing Mr. G

Race 7
6 Starlight serenade 3rd
12 Manchu Prince
3 Bridled quest
9 Onotheregostokyo WON 53.40 19.20 7.00
5 Sir Swervalot Not the same since the late summer layoff - 4th start off on bettering form @ clm25 w/ a positive equipment change and oh yeah, Ness/Centeno :) may not look the part on paper, but impossible to leave off 2nd

Race 8
3 Prince Nick WON
2 Admirals arch 3rd

Race 9
2 Fast hand 4th
11 Jp'shanna WON
1 Bikini Atoll 2nd
6 Remember Shirley

Race 10
6 full exertion 4th
5 Champagne Sunrise WON 29.40 11.40 8.40
3 Queens Crumpets
4 Cruzan Fling 2nd


Big - 3,5,6,9,12//2,3//1,2,6,11//3,4,5,6 160.00 3912.30
Small - 3,5,6,9,12//2,3//1,2,11//3,5,6 90.00 3912.30

Is today Craig Phillip's day? He's not going to get many more chances on horses this live. Thought for sure his "Army" would include.

Nah, not today - Tiggerv's got 'em as a "B" - that's good enough for the Army :D

Smooth Wind looks live in the opener despite having to face one of Jamie Ness' super first off the claimers.

Starting to rain lightly here in Safety Harbor (about 15 min west of Oldsmar)

Very live.

I'm going to throw in a:

3,5,6/4,7 DD

GL

Haha. He probably should be a "D" or "F" but I figure he has been looking forward to this mount since it was carded a week ago. Nobody should ride harder today.

Very very nice PP.

Chilly Willie! :D

Nice start Pillow...

Race 2

Pick 3

4,7/5,9/1

GL

Race 2

7 Shoot For The Sky WP

EB 4,7,9

GL on the Double Bigs

Thanks Bigs. Good luck on that double.

Race 3
John David

On the same.

Also boxing with the 9.

Bah.

Race 3
1/5,9 Exacta
+
5,7,9 Ex Box.

Race 4

1 East Coaster

EB 1,3,4