I dont want to speak for BTW but he is typically right not always but more often then not he is on the money. Upstart was dreadful in Derby, I used him because of what he had done on the track which was about as much as any other in field. He was 30/1 he should have been 15/1 and I wonder if world was out he was off form or some other backstretch nonsense?

The derby is a hard race to take much away from this year. CJ thinks pace was solid other respectable outlets think it was less then stellar? I use CJ to guide me on this stuff because he too is more right then wrong. Doesnt mean he is right this time but I believe he is. Upstart didnt run so trying to reverse engineer a decent opinion on what he wants to ultimately do after that performance is a waste.

No, it isn't. The NY bred comment was, I thought, an obviously little sarcastic poke at his fan boys. While I do feel he'd make quick work in NY Bred races, I think he's more than capable of showing well in races like the King's Bishop.

And there is no argument at all about him being the fastest horse in the crop, on paper.

That comment or belief is what is comically an indefensible and asinine opinion.

My argument about his running style was a direct response to those that over evaluate his performance in the Champagne and BCJ.

Nice try though.

FTFY.

Only in the Holy Bull and Florida Derby can one say that Upstart was pressing the pace.

Coincidentally, both races had pedestrian early fractions.

My take on Upstarts Derby performance is the only one that it can be.

It's a throwout.

CJ is exactly right about the pace. Since when is 47.1 a slow pace for 10F for early season three year olds that have never gone that far?

Upstart went off at 15-1 in the Derby. He actually took a ton of late money to drop from the 19-1 he was holding at.

He's always within five lengths of the lead, usually significantly less (at the half).

If not pressing, then stalking, if you want to play it that way Rollo.

Coincidentally, the race he was allegedly taken out of his game in, namely the BCJ, he was the furthest back from the leaders. His post was almost certainly responsible for that.

As for the Holy Bull and Florida Derby, I am not confident that the pace was that slow, as that track was not the autobahn it's historically been over the years.

I don't understand why the NYB comment is such a big deal. Would it be the worst thing in the world to jog in a NYB race, that race being used as a confidence booster for him? Have him primed for Saratoga? If he was mine, and healthy after the Derby debacle I would point him to the Belmont.

The big deal for them is that they are emotionally invested in the horse and are lacking objectivity.

Something I'm being accused of despite my saying that AP was less impressive than I had expected.

5 lengths? Shouldn't a presser by definition be quite a bit closer to the pace? Like, within a length?

Stalking sounds better...if we are referring to his Florida races.

In the BC, the horse was hustled out of the gate and IMO was pushed to move early into a fast pace down the backstretch.

In general, this horse always seems to be asked to move too soon. It probably made sense in the Florida Derby, with Materiality trying to sneak away.

Also note his early position in each of his races. 6th, 5th, 5th, 8th, 3rd, 5th, 3rd. He is always behind several horses entering the backstretch.

I'm not sure its totally by rider design as the horse descends from A.P. Indy, who is notorious for grinders (unfortunately, I think Freddy posted something similar) and perhaps the colt is hard to get "in gear".

He'd be an interesting one to see held back to make one run the last quarter.

The Holy Bull card seemed to have solid 1/2 mile fractions on the undercard. The Florida Derby not so much, with only a few other dirt races, but again, it made sense to keep Materiality in range.

Privman reports field will be small for Preakness

wait till you see the Belmont Field when AP wins well in Preakness maybe 7

I'm a BIG fan of AP, but I think he has his work cut out for him on Saturday.

I would love for him to win convincingly, and head to Elmont with the hype train in full motion.

I'm just skeptical.

Relax he is a cinch

no one is a cinch.

Things just got a 'tad' easier for him in the Preakness with Pletcher opting not to send Materiality.

cowards :rolleyes:

It seems like everytime I've opened a thread about the Preakness, Pletcher has changed his mind again about something.

This keeps up AP will have as much trouble losing the P as the Pats do with under inflated balls.