Originally Posted by jms62 (Post 1027692)

:o Sorry about that

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis (Post 1027691)

Because Frosted may have the slightest look as an outside longshot from a pace perspective, where Materiality will be the typical over-hyped, over-bet TAP entry that has already proven he's not capable of rating.

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 1027694)

Has Materiality even ever won a race wire-to-wire? He was far back early in the Derby and finished well.

Originally Posted by freddymo (Post 1027695)

He rated off Stanford a colt that worked in 9.8 and is speed ball. His slop mdn race he was on pace as well. the Florida derby he was sent and who can count anything from that surface good or bad that day. He could be a closer? but that trip in derby hardily validates that is his preferred style. All that trip suggests is he was 4th or 5th best horse in the race that day.

Originally Posted by Dunbar (Post 1027631)

Well, you're half right, at least as far as my post-Belmont response. I can't remember ever going back to dig up ridiculous posts and quoting them when they've been proven wrong (or at least highly dubious), but I may make an exception in this case. That's how over-the-top I think the accolades have been for a horse that to me has shown no more quality than Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, Big Brown and California Chrome had at the same stages of their careers. (I won't put Silver Charm in that list because SC won his KD and Preakness against 2-3 other horses with BSF's in the 115 range, and was more impressive, IMO.)

But if AP wins the Belmont, I can't think of a scenario that would keep me from joining the worshippers, short of some truly calamitous event that wipes out most of the competition. I won't care if AP has the most perfect of perfect trips/setups--if he can get 1.5 miles on top of everything else he's done and beat these more-rested horsess, then he's truly worthy in my book.

In fact, it seems to me that the ones making excuses in advance are the very people who think AP is so spectacular. I keep reading about all the things that can go wrong in the Belmont from the AP-Is-The-2nd-Coming camp. It's almost like they don't believe the hype themselves.

--Dunbar

Originally Posted by freddymo (Post 1027695)

He rated off Stanford a colt that worked in 9.8 and is speed ball. His slop mdn race he was on pace as well. the Florida derby he was sent and who can count anything from that surface good or bad that day. He could be a closer? but that trip in derby hardily validates that is his preferred style. All that trip suggests is he was 4th or 5th best horse in the race that day.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 1027673)

This is really good.

Originally Posted by freddymo (Post 1027682)

People look for the most logical horse because its been an impossible task to conquer and so it makes sense to bet anyone but the favorite, which frankly has been a good strategy for 40 years. Just not this year.

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 1027694)

Has Materiality even ever won a race wire-to-wire? He was far back early in the Derby and finished well.

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 1027700)

No, it's really not.

It's completely backwards.

You should try your hand at stand up comedy.

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis (Post 1027704)

Semantics, Rollo. He pressed a still maiden in the slop in his maiden breaker, pressed a confirmed quitter in the Islamorada, and pressed an average Bluegrass Singer before dueling with Upstart, who would later just quit in Kentucky.

Frosted's off the pace effort in the Kentucky Derby was clearly better than Materiality's off the pace effort, and if his saving grace, "pressing" AP, is what folks are holding out hope for - well, you can see the what he was up against when successful doing so in the past.

Originally Posted by Sightseek (Post 1027705)

:confused:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 1027713)

I'll explain.

The AP detractors are the ones throwing around excuses as to why AP keeps winning, often accusing his fans of doing just that as to why he might lose the Belmont.

The reality is that the detractors keep reaching for more and new absurdities, often contradicting their own earlier absurdities.

Heck, I've been accused of various things ranging from chest thumping, claiming credit for his success and even being somewhat the zealot.

The funny thing with that one is that, as we've discussed on Facebook, I'm not even convinced that AP is the best horse in this crop.

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 1027713)

The AP detractors are the ones throwing around excuses as to why AP keeps winning, often accusing his fans of doing just that as to why he might lose the Belmont.

The reality is that the detractors keep reaching for more and new absurdities, often contradicting their own earlier absurdities.

Heck, I've been accused of various things ranging from chest thumping, claiming credit for his success and even being somewhat the zealot.

The funny thing with that one is that, as we've discussed on Facebook, I'm not even convinced that AP is the best horse in this crop.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 1027708)

"Clearly better" usually means more than one out of ten people that know anything about watching races would agree with you. I would have trouble finding one out of 100 that actually think Frosted's Derby effort was "clearly better" than the effort of Materiality.

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis (Post 1027721)

Right. Materiality had a clear run from the inside, and still finished 3 lengths off a horse that needed to work a trip, settle, move earlier, and managed to close into and round out the Super...oh, and ran 28 feet further. :zz:

I would have hoped that Materiality would have run a decent last quarter, as the horse was lost for the better part of the race. Keen Ice must be considered a real threat too, following this line of reasoning.

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis (Post 1027721)

Right. Materiality had a clear run from the inside, and still finished 3 lengths off a horse that needed to work a trip, settle, move earlier, and managed to close into and round out the Super...oh, and ran 28 feet further. :zz:

I would have hoped that Materiality would have run a decent last quarter, as the horse was lost for the better part of the race. Keen Ice must be considered a real threat too, following this line of reasoning.

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 1027699)

Let's just reveal the elephant in the room:

Materiality has the talent, and most importantly, the early speed, to hinder American Pharoah's bid to stay 12 furlongs.

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis (Post 1027721)

Right. Materiality had a clear run from the inside, and still finished 3 lengths off a horse that needed to work a trip, settle, move earlier, and managed to close into and round out the Super...oh, and ran 28 feet further. :zz:

I would have hoped that Materiality would have run a decent last quarter, as the horse was lost for the better part of the race. Keen Ice must be considered a real threat too, following this line of reasoning.

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 1027722)

What were you up to between the 1/2 mile pole and the 1/4 pole during the Kentucky Derby?

Couldn't have possibly have been watching the race.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 1027696)

You're a trip handicapper now....in addition to becoming a sudden fanboy?

Originally Posted by freddymo (Post 1027727)

Hanging out with you for 12 years has some very small benefits

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 1027726)

He wasn't watching the start either.

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 1027730)

Thanks, I completely took that for granted. In my defense, here California, we've been taught by the stewards that problems at the start couldn't possibly effect the outcome of a race.

Originally Posted by Sightseek (Post 1027715)

That didn't help. Sorry, I think you are reaching here.

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 1027730)

Thanks, I completely took that for granted. In my defense, here California, we've been taught by the stewards that problems at the start couldn't possibly effect the outcome of a race.

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 1027720)

Lots of tilting at windmills. Since the running of the Preakness, in both this thread and the "American Pharaoh with authority" thread there was at best a couple of comments about Dortmund being held back and Tale Of the Verve running second that might qualify as "detracting" from American Pharoah's Preakness performance. Otherwise, what we have been treated to is some paranoid ramblings about American Pharaoh's vulnerability to internet criticism, a rather oddly placed attack on D. Wayne Lukas (as if any number of other trainers, including American Pharoah's, couldn't be cast in the same light), and Freddy's weird appropriation of American Pharaoh for his beloved Phipps stable (sorry, dude, I know hopes were high with Orb).

Sadly, the only thing remotely related to actual events in horse racing in either thread is whether Materiality can rate or not.

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 1027736)

Yeah, I'm not really sure how my comment about ridiculous comments being thrown around about AP are paranoid ramblings.

Originally Posted by freddymo (Post 1027724)

If being out gunned by Stanford is proof he can rate then I guess he could effect AP but nobody should be convinced he can rate and be effective and we know AP can rate and finish. Seems to me all you have to do is follow Materiality until he is spent.

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 1027745)

I don't know Freddy. I think most of the American Pharaoh fans that are not currently developing skunk spots want want to see him go straight to the front and never look back. This charge is being led by none other than Steve Haskin, who in his most recent "piece" declares American Pharaoh as the only truly deserved contender for the Triple Crown since Spectacular Bid (think about the horses that comment dismisses).

Now you're telling us that he should simply sit off of Materiality and wait for that one to tire. Interesting for sure. But I guess it goes back to AP having this mythical "off day" in the Kentucky Derby, you know, the only time in his career when he sat just of a talented frontrunner (Dortmund). Was it mere coincidence that it was also the only time American Pharaoh didn't glide away from the competition through the stretch?

Now maybe Materiality is no Dortmund (though the speed figures might say otherwise), but certainly the extra 1/4 mile could make up the difference.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 1027746)

Did Haskin really say that?

If so, that's disgraceful even for him.

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 1027747)

The reasoning was that all but one of the Triple Crown winners since the 1930s (6 out of 7) were previously crowned as 2yo champions.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 1027746)

Did Haskin really say that?

If so, that's disgraceful even for him.

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 1027747)

The reasoning was that all but one of the Triple Crown winners since the 1930s (6 out of 7) were previously crowned as 2yo champions.

Originally Posted by Dunbar (Post 1027752)

Haskin wrote that AP was the first since Spectacular Bid to "fit the profile" of previous TC winners. But I don't think Haskin said AP was the only deserving contender since Spectacular Bid. Here's what he wrote at BloodHorse:

"And the reality is this: American Pharoah is the first Derby and Preakness winner since Spectacular Bid to fit the profile of a Triple Crown winner. The naming of champions didn’t begin until the late 1930s, and since then, six of the seven Triple Crown winners – Affirmed, Seattle Slew, Secretariat, Citation, Count Fleet, and Whirlaway all were 2-year-old champions (either in the Daily Racing Form or Turf and Sport Digest polls), as, of course, was American Pharoah, who is the first juvenile champion since Spectacular Bid 36 years ago to attempt a Triple Crown sweep.

In addition, Triple Crown winners Affirmed, Seattle Slew, Secretariat, Citation, Count Fleet, War Admiral, and Gallant Fox all won the Belmont Stakes wire to wire. Even the late-running Whirlaway was sent to the lead early in the race. As everyone is well aware, American Pharoah certainly fits that profile as well."


http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/horse...s-the-day.aspx

--Dunbar

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 1027753)

Who knew Triple Crown winners had a profile. Did Smarty Jones get caught by Birdstone because he suddenly realized at the eighth pole that he wasn't 2YO champion?

Originally Posted by Danzig (Post 1027759)

:p

I think it is a dilemma. The tc is a hard thing to pull off....but as ive asked here in the past, is it like flipping a coin? That is to say, just because we have seen heads flipped every year since affirmed, the odds on flipping tails on the next toss is still 50 50...

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 1027756)

Two things.

Haskin is over the top and reaching, but I see no reason to get bent out of shape. It's just an opinion.

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 1027761)

actually, coin flips, they aren't quite 50/50.