Deep Impact is the absolute nuts if he fires. Period.

So is G dub.

He has to show up to win and he still has the Classic option.

I just love all this insider stuff!

And here we all were 100% sure that George Washington was coming for the Mile. I may have to cancel my BC plans.

You don't need to be an insider. O'Brien has said publicly he is not sure what he is doing. It is still September and the race is in November. There are a bunch of interesting scenarios and they all involve his fee for next year. A win in the BC Mile is likely to do very little for his fee. A top 3 finish in the Classic could be worth quite a bit more for obvious reasons. This is Ballydoyle.

You are thinking like a fan. They think like an owner of a stallion. Coolmore would gain nothing from a BC Mile win. His fee is not going to go up with another group 1 win on the turf. The winnings from the BC Mile are nothing compared to what another $50-100K added to a starting fee would be.

Blackthroat, why do you knock the insider information, when you play a role as an insider too.

In this case I was joking about it because as the poster responded it was all information that was in the paper. To say " I happen to know " sort of implies that you have some inside info when in this case it was both obvious and public.

I don't really play the insider role...I am an insider....but I don't think you will find me repeating things or boldly stating I know some sort of inside info. I am amazed that people would repeat things they may have heard in confidence on message boards ( which is why I don't trust most of what I read in that vein ). I just find all the hand waving amusing.

Oh, alright I wasnt sure. I figured you were an insider from reading your posts

He is a NY (NYRA) insider. He would know nothing about Ballydoyle.

Really...who knew you were an " insider " on me.

I know a whole helluva lot more, apparently, than you think you know.

Ughh, look what slithered in under the door.

GW will be running in the BC Mile or no Breeders Cup races. The Classic for GW is a non-issue because he is not going to run in that race. GW is about 74% for the BC Mile. If not the mile, then no race in the US.

How did you calculate the 74%:p

So lemme get this straight, do you actually speak to Aidan O'Brien?
My guess is that it goes more like this.
The breeders call out of interest, to the guy who owes them nothing since they only bred the horse, they don't own it or have any influence in even the slightest way, and O Brien says to be polite, perhaps this. The breeders tell a few folks, including your friend, what the speculative plans are. your friend tells you.
I guess this is the definition of an insider at Ballydoyle.

Or do you actually speak to O'Brien?

GW is more impressive because of the horses he has been facing. His turn of foot is more impressive because it is against other horses with good turn of foot. Deep Impact has been facing (IMO) lesser horses, therefore his turn of foot looks more impressive. You can think what you want and I hope you are right, but IMO Deep Impact will not come close to winning the Prix.

Did you like that 74% - HA HA. I always get tired of people using 75, 80, 85 as numbers--ha ha.