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-   -   Summer Bird pointed for The BC (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=31499)

CSC 09-03-2009 11:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone
I'll give you credit for standing by your opinion on this despite taking it from all sides.

Thanks Travis, however it is an easy position to take if you really believe it and I really believe in this horse at that distance and that track. I think RA has a few things to prove yet, no matter how brilliant she has been thus far. I suspect I may have to go offline Sat-Sun because of the possible love in on this board after she wins the Woodward. I won't rehash the reasons, really I am tired of saying the same things over and over again however creatively I try to deliver them. One thing I will add with the Beyer argument, the discrepancy once grand canyon like is not so large at all. 110 and 117 is not an insurmountable difference in horseracing and I don't see why any knowledgable horseracing person as we have many on this board would say he would be trounced by her so matter of factly.

The Indomitable DrugS 09-03-2009 11:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek
What horse isn't being campaigned in the best possible place to WIN?

If she was truly a great horse ... and her connections had any balls ... as a prep for the Woodward... they would have entered her in both the AP Smithwick and NY Turf Writers and she'd have swept both of them while fencing perfectly.

boswd 09-03-2009 11:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
Rachel Alexandra will beat Summer Bird like a drum.


Not the Summer Bird that showed up at The Traver's, the only thing we can on is The Preakness RA Held on, you all can try and convince yourselfs she was in totall control but she held on and if that race was a 1 1/4 she loses, plain and simple. Summer Bird loves the extra distance.

At a 1 1/8 RA wins 1 1/4 Beating Summer Bird like a drum? I don't think so.

Sightseek 09-03-2009 11:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
If she was truly a great horse ... and her connections had any balls ... as a prep for the Woodward... they would have entered her in both the AP Smithwick and NY Turf Writers and she'd have swept both of them while fencing perfectly.

:tro:

The Indomitable DrugS 09-03-2009 11:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jms62
If the race is at distance and at a Track having a bias that heavily favors RA you are right. Any other Distance / Track it is a moot point becuase RA won't be there.

The track was fair to all styles in the Haskell.


Quote:

Originally Posted by jms62
She is being managed not to ever be put in a situation that isn't heavily tilted in her favor. This won't be lost on those voting for HOY.

Yes ... they will surely be more impressed with Zenyatta for ducking the Hollywood Gold Cup while her stablemate Life Is Sweet was entered .. so she could take on laughing stock competition of her own gender.

Cannon Shell 09-03-2009 11:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jms62
If the race is at distance and at a Track having a bias that heavily favors RA you are right. Any other Distance / Track it is a moot point becuase RA won't be there. She is being managed not to ever be put in a situation that isn't heavily tilted in her favor. This won't be lost on those voting for HOY.

I doubt this is true. PG1985 has a better handle on things than 90% of the voters.

The Indomitable DrugS 09-03-2009 11:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by boswd
Not the Summer Bird that showed up at The Traver's, the only thing we can on is The Preakness RA Held on, you all can try and convince yourselfs she was in totall control but she held on and if that race was a 1 1/4 she loses, plain and simple. Summer Bird loves the extra distance.

At a 1 1/8 RA wins 1 1/4 Beating Summer Bird like a drum? I don't think so.


Rachel Alexandra was open lengths the best in the Preakness ... and had every right to throw in the towell late after dueling with a VERY fast horse in Big Drama through very fast fractions and being forced very wide into the 1st turn.

Yes - with Big Drama as his rabbit - Summer Bird might have a shot to beat RA at 10 furlongs. In a fairly run race though - he can't compete.

This is handicaping 101 stuff.

parsixfarms 09-03-2009 11:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
The track was fair to all styles in the Haskell.

The rail was not the place to be that day. Summer Bird pressed the pace on the worst part of the track.

boswd 09-03-2009 11:26 AM

Well hopefully if RA does well on Saturday they will point her to the JCGC and she can answer her distance question.

Sightseek 09-03-2009 11:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC
You want the beyer answer, when in doubt always refer to beyers. They are the determining factor. ;)

Using your logic Tiago was superior to Curlin.

CSC 09-03-2009 11:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Yes - with Big Drama as his rabbit - Summer Bird might have a shot to beat RA at 10 furlongs. In a fairly run race though - he can't compete.

This is handicaping 101 stuff.

The Summer Bird today is a much better horse than Mine That Bird was in the Preakness. Can't compete? I'm getting a barrel full of laughs today and it's only barely past noon.

CSC 09-03-2009 11:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek
Using your logic Tiago was superior to Curlin.

You mean pre Dubai or post Dubai? 2 different horses.

Edit-BTW it isn't my logic, I'm just using the same old excuse everyone else does when comparing horses.

The Indomitable DrugS 09-03-2009 11:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by parsixfarms
The rail was not the place to be that day. Summer Bird pressed the pace on the worst part of the track.

The rail was probably where you wanted to be if anything.

I thought Borel was smart to get RA right on top of the rail turning for home - and finish on it.

Duke of Mischief saved ground throughout and finished just 2.5 lengths back of Summer Bird.

Clip-Clop 09-03-2009 11:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC
You mean pre Dubai or post Dubai? 2 different horses.

Edit-BTW it isn't my logic, I'm just using the same excuse everyone else does when comparing horses.

The only place he was any different was on the different surfaces. Dubai had no effect on Curlin.

parsixfarms 09-03-2009 12:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
The rail was probably where you wanted to be if anything.

I thought Borel was smart to get RA right on top of the rail turning for home - and finish on it.

Duke of Mischief saved ground throughout and finished just 2.5 lengths back of Summer Bird.

After the heavy rains came, horses racing off the rail appeared to have a distinct advantage. While non-favored winners such as Jersey Town, Actin Good, Endymion and D'Wild Ride all took the overland route to victory, short-priced speedsters such as Despite the Odds, Sunday Geisha and Man of Danger did not fare well racing inside.

Where Rachel ran in the stretch was of no consequence given her superiority that day.

No-factor Papa Clem offered a mild rally outside; no-factor Duke of Mischief offered a mild rally inside. Neither probably means anything in terms of trying to assess preferred paths that day.

The Indomitable DrugS 09-03-2009 12:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC
I'm getting a barrel full of laughs today and it's only barely past noon.


What's most laugh worthy is your contradictions.

Typing about Cigar you posted the following ....

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC
He was a great horse though, as honest as the higher power has ever made.


Typing about Rachel Alexandra you say ....


Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC
Which may mean she is only a great filly on dirt, she's one dimensional. Like it or not Zenyatta has won on both surfaces, Careless Jewel has won on both also or atleast shown she can handle both. In this instance they are superior to her unless she can prove she can win on Poly also. Brilliant probably not as her...but certainly more versatile which to me is also a factor in determining a great horse.


Last I checked ... Cigar was 1-for-11 lifetime on turf and was getting blown out by 8 lengths in allowance races before switching to dirt and becoming a star.

Yet he's a versatile horse who's "as honest as the higher power has ever created" ....

While Rachel Alexandra is "one-dimensional" and inferior to Careless Jewel and Zenyatta because her lifetime record is only 1-for-1 on synthetics.


CSC feels like an elaborate ploy to keep Blackthroatedwind from posting here.

CSC 09-03-2009 12:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
What's most laugh worthy is your contradictions.

Typing about Cigar you posted the following ....




Typing about Rachel Alexandra you say ....





Last I checked ... Cigar was 1-for-11 lifetime on turf and was getting blown out by 8 lengths in allowance races before switching to dirt and becoming a star.

Yet he's a versatile horse who's "as honest as the higher power has ever created" ....

While Rachel Alexandra is "one-dimensional" and inferior to Careless Jewel and Zenyatta because her lifetime record is only 1-for-1 on synthetics.


CSC feels like an elaborate ploy to keep Blackthroatedwind from posting here.

Firstly, What does this have to do with the Summer Bird and RA argument? Secondly individually selectively quotes and placing them in the wrong context to try to hurt someone's credibility because you may be getting hot under the collar is not what I expected from you. If I am wrong I am sorry, but this is a discussion and I hold no hard feelings once I am logged on or off.

Thank you Drugs.

The Indomitable DrugS 09-03-2009 12:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by parsixfarms
No-factor Papa Clem offered a mild rally outside; no-factor Duke of Mischief offered a mild rally inside. Neither probably means anything in terms of trying to assess preferred paths that day.

The Haskell was race 13. The winners of races 11, 12 and 14 all raced inside.

Summer Bird and Duke of Mischief were certainly not hindered by any path bias. After the rain came much earlier in the day it appeared that the outside might have offered a little better footing .. but as the day went on and track was taken care of.. the inside was just fine at the very least.

tector 09-03-2009 12:20 PM

Seriously, Drugs--how do you deal with these morons? They are worse than those horsey broads on the AOL of old. They have no idea whatsoever what they saw in the Preakness.

JFC. I'd kill-filter these dolts, but, unfortunately, you still get all the replies to them.

The Indomitable DrugS 09-03-2009 12:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC
Firstly, What does this have to do with the Summer Bird and RA argument?

It shows that you are making no sense at all.


Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC
Secondly individually selectively quotes and placing them in the wrong context to try to hurt someone's credibility because you may be getting hot under the collar is not what I expected from you.


For the record .. I'm not "hot under the collar" in the least and I'm not concerned with attacking your board cred.



Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC
If I am wrong I am sorry, but this is a discussion and I hold no hard feelings once I am logged on or off.

Thank you Drugs.


It is Mr. DrugS to you.


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