What other jocks have you given strategic advice to? I find it hard to believe from your posts that you know how to read a form.

So now you have predicted that Revolutionary will win the triple crown and that he is going to change his style in the Derby and be in the first half of the field by the first turn which is entirely different then the deep closer that he has been in the past. All this without even consideration to the draw.

If that isn't far fetched enough, you want people to believe that it is because you instructed Borel to do that? It doesn't matter what the owner, trainer and Borel think, Borel is going to use your plan? Could you be a bigger tool?

It is hard to believe that the weight that you have put on this poor horse can be overcome by even the greatest of throughbreds.

:D
:tro:

Disappointed but good call by the connections putting him first.

Hope they make it to the Derby some day.

:D
:tro:

Fear The Kitten going to be entered w/ Alan Garcia listed as jockey.

What a perfect match Ramsey and D Wayne would be!!!

Let's just hope Ramsey has him nominated before he tries to enter him

He's not a Ramsey horse.

Ya just noticed that got him mixed up with Charming Kitten.

With a grand total of 6 Derby points. I had read where Vegas had a prop bet of the over/under to make the field being set a 20. I had thought at the time that was a ridiculously low number.

6 is unimaginable.

I think the over/under was 29.5 at one casino.

Don't forget that 7 horses with 30 points or more are either inactive or off the trail.

This is why the outcry when the system came out about how "so and so would have been excluded" was ridiculous. There are going to be years where the standings are so top heavy (like 2013). All of the top 6 won 2 Derby preps with the exception of Java's War, who finished 2nd in the TB Derby. If there's more of a spread among the prep winners next year, the bottom for points will be a lot higher.

Orb is obviously going to be the post time favorite in the Kentucky Derby, and he just ran 11 lengths slower than Dreaming of Julia on the same day and same distance.

She's excluded from entering in favor of Fear The Kitten, now that Tiz A Minsiter is out after his 3rd place finish in the Cal Bred stake last weekend.

You know, because she didn't "earn" her way in like they did.

I'm not defending the points system, but simply pointing out that yearly changes are going to make the bottom amount needed for entry fluctuate.

The exclusion of races for fillies, the Illinois Derby hilarity, and the BC Juvenile not being an auto entry seem to be the three biggest flaws with the system. The 1st and 3rd have simple fixes. The 2nd depends on if CDI is still in a pissing match with Hawthorne.

I think the GP Oaks-FG Oaks-Gazelle-Ashland and Fantasy should be in the 50 pt range, so should the Juvenile.

I was under the impression they had no desire to run her in the Derby anyway. I guess if they could it might be a different story, but we'll never know.

Overall point taken, but if they weren't going to run anyway, it's hard to blame the point system.

It's like the people complaining about Departing getting "shut out" of the Derby. He could be running in it. The connections are choosing not to.

Don't agree. Why should a race Restricted to Fillies have any bearing on entry into an Open race? If the Fillies want to compete then step up and enter the preps.

It's actually far from comically stupid. It's totally relevant.

And 10-15 others too.

Right, becasue Derby Fever can hit owners of horses like Fear The Kitten, but it can't hit the owners of a filly that runs 3rd twice in races restricted to fillies. Or perhaps two fillies.

My point is that there is no fair way to fix this problem that you are saying exists. And you are somehow absolving the connections of the fillies of any blame at all.

The Oaks is a pace melt-down waiting to happen. If I trained Dreaming of Julia she'd scratch and point for the triple tiara.

Let Midnight Lucky, Close Hatches, Beholder, and the four or five other quality speeds in there take each other apart.

There is a 0.00% chance I'd start her in the Oaks. The New York races are just as prestigious and the Breeders Cup Distaff is far more prestigious than the Oaks.

Pletcher is kid-gloving Dreaming of Julia into this race. Her final work was sundial slow under a full nelson. It looked more like a gallop than a work.

I fear she might be another GS freak from that barn. Will be wagering like it too.

I agree with you and think a lot of other people do to...precisely why most think she fits in the Derby which appears to have a general lack of pace.

Nevertheless, does this mean you're endorsing Pure Fun in the Oaks? ;)

With the Oaks being at 1 1/8 I was wondering about the inside posts. Obviously they aren't as bad as they Derby but maybe someone can give me some insight on the inside posts...thanks

I loved her race over the track last year. She's always stunk on true synthetic surfaces and turf.

She got sick for a few days right after her comeback race ... and that is something that derails the form of a lot of young horses. Every week that I've heard about a horse who was sick after a race this year, they've completely bombed in their next race and their form didn't quickly recover. Purple Egg stopped on a dime in that Tampa Derby 1st off being reportedly sick. My Name is Micheal had good Canadian poly form for a weak trainer, ran fine at Tampa for Mott, got sick, and completely bombed in the Spiral.

My father said it often threw his cheap horses for negative form reversals, and when you're talking about younger horses who do more training in between starts, it's really not a good sign IMO.

McPeek said Pure Fun was breathing very hard after the Lexington.

I have to use Pure Fun because of the pace dynamics and because I believe this is the surface she wants ... but I wish she came up to this race better. Her entry looks like a case of Oaks fever. It would be easier for me to draw a line threw her two weak Poly races this year if I didn't read and hear that she cameback sick for a few days out of her comeback.

Steve is a little busy, but he wanted to be sure to beat Alan to the punch with the big news about Giant Finish supplanting Fear the Kitten as the worst the horse in this year's Derby....though Charming Kitten may take offense to that assertion.

Giant Finish looking to Derby, Fear the Kitten bumped (for now)
 

Per Dave Grening's Twitter, Spiral 3rd place finisher Giant Finish by Frost Giant has 10 pts and is looking to go to the Derby which would bump Fear the Kitten.

In a perfect world ... Show Some Magic (20 points earned for his distant 2nd place finish in the Sunland Derby) will jump back into the picture. He finished 11th in the Illinois Derby at 15/1 odds last time out ... but still, this guy punched his ticket and has well more than enough points.

it's ridiculous.
they need to include points in some of the bigger filly races-if she got half credit for her wins she'd still be in, as she should be if they wanted to enter her.

why should a top horse be barred from entry?

I agree with you, Doug, that the filly races should have some weight toward the Derby since 3-year-olds are so lightly raced nowadays that, as you said, no one knew Dreaming of Julia was that good until her last race, but the list you offer up of the fillies that ran in the Derby doesn't help the argument. Of the list, the only one who hit the board and would have been excluded under the current system is Eight Belles.

2010 Devil May Care- 10th
2008 Eight Belles- 2nd
1999 Excellent Meeting- 5th
1999 Three Ring- 19th
1995 Serena's Song- 16th (won Jim Beam against males)
1988 Winning Colors- 1st (won Santa Anita Derby)
1984 Life's Magic- 8th (ran 5th in Santa Anita Derby)
1984 Althea- 19th (won Arkansas Derby)
1982 Cupecoy's Joy- 10th
1980 Genuine Risk- 1st (third in Wood)
1959 Silver Spoon- 5th (won Santa Anita Derby)

So over half of them raced against the boys prior to the Derby anyway. The Preakness and Belmont aren't relevant as nothing has changed with them.

Again, I agree with you that the Oaks prep races should count, because I agree filly owners don't run fillies unless they feel they have a real chance and it's good for the sport's profile when fillies run in the Derby. I just don't think that the fillies' record in the Derby helps the argument as the two winners would have made it in under the current system anyway, and Eight Belles is perhaps not the ideal poster child for good fillies who would have been excluded( :( RIP).

Do you really think Dreaming of Julia will be close to the pace? I think she will be about 5 lengths off of it 3 wide the whole way around

The last time the pace complexion looked hot, they tried taking her back in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies.

Sure, she was against the bias that day, but the hot pace never materialized.

I don't think they'll get cute again. She'll be placed wherever she is comfortable and if she's sharp like last time, it won't be 5 lengths off unless a breakaway speed duel happens up front.

yeah, if the whole point of the system was to get the best in the race, they have to find a way to include the top fillies, if they wish to enter.
they have wildcard points, don't they? that should include some of the big filly races like the santa anita oaks for example.

Yes it does. Horses are much less frequently raced than in the 1980's and before that:

Here are the 1981 Derby PP's: http://www.drf.com/row/pps/1981.pdf

The top fillies were far more likely to get tried in preps against males in the old days because horses raced a lot more frequently.

However ... the ENTIRE point of the list is that fillies were almost never entered against males when the system was based on Graded Earnings.

Since 1945, several thousand fillies could have entered and raced in the Kentucky Derby ... yet only 11 did.

So, why the need to make a point system designed to keep them out? Because Eight Belles broke down when she was pulling herself up on the gallop out after dusting 18 of the 19 males she faced?

5/4: KENTUCKY DERBY

1. Orb (Shug McGaughey/Joel Rosario)
2. Verrazano (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez)
3. Goldencents (Doug O’Neill/Kevin Krigger)
4. Java’s War (Ken McPeek/Julian Leparoux)
5. Overanalyze (Todd Pletcher/Rafael Bejarano)
6. Revolutionary (Todd Pletcher/Calvin Borel)
7. Lines of Battle (Aidan O’Brien/Ryan Moore)
8. Vyjack (Rudy Rodriguez/Garrett Gomez)
9. Will Take Charge (D. Wayne Lukas/Jon Court)
10. Itsmyluckyday (Eddie Plesa Jr./Elvis Trujillo)
11. Black Onyx (Kelly Breen/Joe Bravo)
12. Palace Malice (Todd Pletcher/Mike Smith)
13. Normandy Invasion (Chad Brown/Javier Castellano)
14. Frac Daddy (Ken McPeek/V. Lebron)
15. Mylute (Tom Amoss/Rosie Napravnik)
16. Oxbow (D. Wayne Lukas/Gary Stevens)
17. Falling Sky (John Terranova/Luis Saez)
18. Charming Kitten (Todd Pletcher/Edgar Prado)
19. Golden Soul (Dallas Stewart/Robby Albarado)
20. Giant Finish (Tony Dutrow/Jose Espinoza)
---------------------------------------------------------------
21. (AE) Fear the Kitten (Mike Maker/Alan Garcia)

It's not rocket science ... just call the final major Oaks Preps (the Gazelle, Santa Anita Oaks, Fantasy, Gulfstream Oaks, and Ashland) "win and you're in" races

That way, the five most deserving fillies are allowed to enter the Derby if they want to.

Of course, 99 times out of 100, they won't. In most cases, the won't even be nominated and would have to pay outrageous fees to supplement.

Carving was 6th beaten 12 lengths behind Hear the Ghost at 31/1 odds in the San Felipe last time out. Two starts back, he was 4th beaten 7 lengths at Golden Gate.

The horse hasn't raced in almost two months.

Only two more defections and he gets in with 2 points!

Doug how do you feel about Unlimited Budget?

She can beat me.

I wouldn't even consider using her in exotics unless you start a thread about how you intend to box the other 10 horses in the race.

So you like Mcpeeks horse and your against Julia? Anything else on this race?

no, it's not. i like that cdi wanted to tilt the field more towards 3 yo over 2 yo wins, and for those who get better later in the spring-but if it excludes some of the very best 3 yo's because they're fillies, it's not a good system.
and yes, they very seldom would be entered-but why make it impossible? makes no sense, it's a throw the baby out with the bathwater move.

just read about giant finish and carve on bloodhorse. they need to institute a minimum # of points to get in the field.