I don't see AP's breeding keeping him from winning the Belmont.

If AP doesn't win the Belmont, it looks like he'll have at most 2-3 more chances to prove his once-in-a-blue-moon superiority:

""After his 3-year-old season that (retirement) decision would be made by Coolmore and myself, but I think he would retire then stand at Ashford," Zayat said May 20, shortly after announcing via Twitter that the 3-year-old son of Pioneerof the Nile would eventually retire to Ashford, the Versailles, Ky., nursery owned by Irish-based Coolmore.

"I can't say definitely (when he will be retired), but horses become extremely valuable and expensive to keep with insurance and other costs and from a farm economics (viewpoint) it becomes economically silly not to retire him. Even (Triple Corwn winner) Secretariat retired after his 3-year-old season.""

see http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...t-ashford-stud

That's funny "once in a blue moon" we must have had an unusual amount of blue moons over the past months with no meteorological news about it. :eek::D

Agree.

Pedigree-wise, American Pharoah would have the worst bottom side both in terms of black type and distance capability in the past 30 years were he to win the Belmont Stakes.

Afleet Alex had a pretty poor family.

Agreed its been a focus point proven to be a non starter thru 10f's

Yes, but there was certainly Grade 1 blacktype up close and a boatload more stamina.

The Belmont Stakes is 12f, Frederick.

To a degree there has to be some reverse engineering with breeding stats.
American Pharoah's former and future siblings suddenly have black type at a classic distance.

Would it be possible for you to point out a few examples of how distance capability is determined in the female line for former Belmont winners?
(Not including the Belmont winner's accomplishments).

1984: Swale's older brother was previously 3rd in the Belmont Stakes. Closely related to a Widener (10f) winner, distance specialist Knightly Manner and Forty Niner (10f). Tale of Verve hails from this female line, by the way.

1985: Creme Fraiche was out of a Delaware Hcp (10f) winner, his half-sister produced millionaire and broodmare money machine Clear Mandate (10f), who dropped Newfoundland and Full Mandate (sire of Ron The Greek).

1986: Danzig Connection, full brother to Roi Danzig (9f), closely related to Widener winner and Belmont Stakes placed Pine Circle, Ravens Pass (10f), E Dubai (10f), Just As Well (12f), and Rainbow View (10f).

1987: Bet Twice was a half to Grade 1 winner Golden Treat, hails from Calumet foundation mare Nellie Flag who also figures in the pedigree of fellow Belmont winner Bold Forbes.

1988: Risen Star was out of top distance mare Ribbon (11f), descends from the Aga Khan foundation mare Mumtaz Mahal.

1989: Easy Goer was out of Relaxing (13f), closely related to Strolling Along (12f), Easy Now (G1), Cadillacing (G1), descends from La Troienne.

1990: Go And Go's second dam was B Thoughtful's arch rival Grenzen, who produced Twilight Agenda (10f) and the dam of Media Puzzle (Melbourne Cup 16f) and Classic winner Refuse To Bend (10f).

1991: Hansel was a half to Lahint, related to Canadian champion Ten Gold Pots, and Anet.

1992: AP Indy was a half to Preakness winner and classic sire Summer Squall, top sire Honor Grades, closely related to fellow Belmont winner Lemon Drop Kid, Mambo in Seattle, and Court Vision. Fellow Belmont winner Tonalist also comes from this line.

1993: Colonial Affair was closely related to distance specialists Stark South and Terpsichorist, the latter the second dam of fellow Belmont winner Union Rags.

1994: Tabasco Cat was related to Canadian champion One For Rose (10f) and Purple Passion.

1995: Thunder Gulch's 2nd dam was a champion in Europe that placed in the Ascot Gold Cup (20f), and was related to More Light (12f).

1996: Editor's Note is closely related to distance specialist Micromanage, Walk Close, Arkadian Hero, Field Cat (18f), Hennessy, Pearl City, Shy Tom (11f).

1997: Touch Gold was a half to Canadian Triple Crown winner With Approval (12f), was related to Serenading (10f).

^^^ That was DrugSesque

Mumtaz Mahal was known primarily for being speedy.

That and her profound effect on the future of the breed.

Rollo, thanks for taking the time to post those.

The first black type I found in AP's female line was a stakes winning half sister to his dam. She also produced a black type winner herself. Another half sister produced a black type runner.I have to go 5 generations back to a stakes winning dam who produced a turf sprinting stakes winner,a full sister to AP's 4th dam.There is black type sprinkled throughout the foals of the 5th dam.As a side note Fred Hooper bred the 4th and 5th dam as well as all of the black type runners.

The 3rd dam was the lone foal of the 4th, and the 3rd's best producing daughter was AP's grand dam.

I can't dispute the lack of "stamina siblings" through AP's female line compared to any of the horses you posted.However his grand dam's work is not yet completed.

The question I have to ask is how would AP's female line compare to the last 30 Kentucky Derby winners?

speaking of breeding....
 

sad to see...another good one doing the 1-1/2 years and done deal.

http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2015/05/...s-ahmed-zayat/

and it also was wet that day which funnycide did not like.

F. CIDE - Career Earnings: $3,529,412 38 starts

E. MAKER - Career Earnings: $1,985,800 8 starts

Only one Douglas.

You forgot:
F. CIDE - Gelding
E. MAKER- Colt

True, and it's why I would be a lot more excited and supportive if it was a gelding going for the TC.

well not quite 32....but i'll take it