Derby Trail Forums - 6/8 (BEL) 145th Belmont Stakes: Field at 14 as 'Tiz' passes

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Quote:

Originally Posted by pweizer (Post 923746)

If you were Baffert, wouldn't you rather run Code West (who would be next on the list) than Super 99?

Paul

Absolutely, especially since things have gone sideways -- and worse -- for Gary & Mary West.

I say whoever is training the best of the 3 for Baffert, he will send.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aly-Sheba (Post 923754)

I say whoever is training the best of the 3 for Baffert, he will send.

That's OK but right now -- with plenty of time for others to get sick/hurt -- he can only have Super Ninety Nine or Code West by not running Super Ninety Nine. Power Broker will need help..

And don't forget that there will be an opportunity for a couple of runners to invade the list out of the Lex and Derby Trial..

That's true and he might not have a choice other then S99. Are they actually considering Power Broker? The West's try to rush everything like Power Broker and Treasury!

Steve,
Did you read the Press release at the Paulick report where it says "Then there will be one." Stating that Baffert is down to Govenor Charlie? But you keep reading and it says Baffert will determine who is training best between the other 3? Makes no sense, Is he considering the other 3 or not?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 923734)

5/4: KENTUCKY DERBY -- WITH SUNDAY APRIL 14th UPDATES

1. Orb 150 Stuart Janney III & Phipps Stable (Ogden Mills “Dinny” Phipps) Shug McGaughey III $840,000
2. Verrazano 150 Let’s Go Stable, Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor & Derrick Smith Todd Pletcher $810,000
3. Goldencents 129 W.C. Racing (Josh Kaplan & Glenn Sorgenstein), Dave Kenney & RAP Racing (Rick Pitino) Doug O’Neill $1,208,000
4. Java’s War 122 Charles Fipke Ken McPeek $651,772
5. Overanalyze 110 Repole Stable (Mike Repole) Todd Pletcher $908,381

6. Revolutionary 110 WinStar Farm LLC (Kenny Troutt) Todd Pletcher $720,000
7. Lines of Battle 100 Joseph Allen, Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor & Derrick Smith Aidan O’Brien $1,261,089
8. Vyjack 70 Pick Six Racing (David Wilkenfeld) Rudy Rodriguez $505,000
9. Will Take Charge 60 Willis D. Horton D. Wayne Lukas $512,971
10. Itsmyluckyday 50 Trilogy Stable (Marion Montanari & David Melin) & Laurie Plesa Eddie Plesa Jr. $593,600

11. Govenor Charlie 50 Mike Pegram Bob Baffert $400,000
12. Black Onyx+ 50 Sterling Racing (Sam Herzberg) Kelly Breen $317,130
13. Palace Malice 50 Dogwood Stable, Inc. (W. Cothran “Cot” Campbell) Todd Pletcher $200,000
14. Normandy Invasion 44 Fox Hill Farms Inc. (Rick Porter) Chad Brown $258,000
15. Frac Daddy 44 Magic City Thoroughbred Partners (Carter Stewart) Ken McPeek $240,596

16. Mylute 42 GoldMark Farm, LLC (T. Paul Bulmahn) & Whisper Hill Farm (Amanda Pope) Tom Amoss $363,365
17. Oxbow 36 Calumet Farm (Brad Kelley) D. Wayne Lukas $346,000
18. Super Ninety Nine 30 Tanma Corporation (Susan Chu) Bob Baffert $308,000[/i] **
19. Falling Sky 30 Newtown Anner Stud, James Covello & Joseph Bulger John Terranova II $207,50
20. Charming Kitten 20 Ken & Sarah Ramsey Todd Pletcher $206,000
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
21. Code West 20 Gary & Mary West Bob Baffert $90,000
22. Tiz a Minister 20 S. A. Y. Racing, LLC Paul Aguirre $81,000
23. Golden Soul 14 Charles Fipke Dallas Stewart $84,000
24. Power Broker 10 Gary & Mary West Bob Baffert $245,000

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...hurchill-downs Bloodhorse has Charming Kitten at 21st. Hmm. Are they counting someone in that isn't anymore?

I get that Pegram likes to cram words together for horse names, but did he intentionally misspell "governor" or did he not use spell check before he sent the thing in to the Jockey Club? Given who we're talking about, I assumed it was the former. (I assume someone addressed the spelling of Presious Passion at some point, no idea why that happened either.)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Merlinsky (Post 923780)

I wouldn't be surprised if govenor was an oversight.Personally I would have spelled it gov'nah.
Preakness winner Deputed Testamony was an unintentional error as I recall.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aly-Sheba (Post 923775)

Use Darren Rogers at Churchill as the sole guide for the arbiter of Derby/Oaks hopefuls. He will always have the most relevent status information as connections have to keep CD informed as to intentions due to stall requirements, etc. If horses are still on his list as possible, then they aren't out of consideration.

5/4: KENTUCKY DERBY -- JOCK ASSIGNMENTS

1. Orb (Shug McGaughey/Joel Rosario)
2. Verrazano (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez)
3. Goldencents ( Doug O’Neill/Kevin Krigger)
4. Java’s War (Ken McPeek/Julian Leparoux)
5. Overanalyze (Todd Pletcher/Rafael Bejarano)
6. Revolutionary (Todd Pletcher/Calvin Borel)
7. Lines of Battle (Aidan O’Brien/Ryan Moore)
8. Vyjack (Rudy Rodriguez/Garrett Gomez)
9. Will Take Charge (D. Wayne Lukas/Jon Court)
10. Itsmyluckyday (Eddie Plesa Jr./Elvis Trujillo)
11. Govenor Charlie (Bob Baffert/Martin Garcia)
12. Black Onyx (Kelly Breen/Joe Bravo)
13. Palace Malice (Todd Pletcher/Mike Smith)
14. Normandy Invasion (Chad Brown/Javier Castellano)
15. Frac Daddy (Ken McPeek/TBA -- V. Lebron in AR Derby)
16. Mylute (Tom Amoss/Rosie Napravnik)
17. Oxbow (D. Wayne Lukas/Gary Stevens)
18. Falling Sky (John Terranova/Jose Espinoza) **
19. Charming Kitten (Todd Pletcher/Edgar Prado)
20. Tiz a Minister (Paul Aguirre/Joe Talamo)
21. Golden Soul (Dallas Stewart/BJ Hernandez)

I'd be surprised if Charming Kitten runs.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 923815)

I'd be surprised if Charming Kitten runs.

Why? I don't think Ramsey will pass it up even if he knows the horse is hopeless.

Quote:

Originally Posted by 3kings (Post 923816)

Why? I don't think Ramsey will pass it up even if he knows the horse is hopeless.

A son of Kitten's Joy who has never started on dirt before ... you'd think Pletcher would be able to talk him out of it...especially with so many rich spots for 3yo's routing on turf and poly later on in the year.

Quote:

Originally Posted by 3kings (Post 923816)

Why? I don't think Ramsey will pass it up even if he knows the horse is hopeless.

it wouldn't be the only hopeless case to be entered.

derby points vs. graded earnings

horseracingnation put together a nice side by side comparison.

http://www.horseracingnation.com/con...takes_earnings

under the new system, it looks like they traded out den's legacy, dynamic sky, he's had enough and power broker for falling sky, frac daddy, normandy invasion, and palace malice. all pending the lexington and derby trial, of course.

hard to argue that isn't an improvement.

The would be post time favorite Dreaming of Julia is out.

Under Graded Earnings -- the Derby field would look like this right now:

Dreaming of Julia
Goldencents
Lines of Battle
Overanalyze
Orb
Verrazano
Revolutionary
Java's War
Vyjack
Itsmyluckyday
Govenor Charlie
Will Take Charge
Oxbow
Black Onyx
Mylute
Den's Legacy
Super Ninety Nine
Frac Daddy
Normandy Invasion
Power Broker

So basically... Dreaming of Julia, Den's Legacy, and Power Broker are out in favor of Falling Sky, Charming Kitten, and Palace Malice.

Den's Legacy not coming appears to be a post-race status decision because after other declarations, he would be in the 20.

In terms of Dreaming of Julia, I got the feeling from Pletcher that he was very comfortable with not being put in the position to have to decide on a Derby run for her.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 923823)

The would be post time favorite Dreaming of Julia is out.

Under Graded Earnings -- the Derby field would look like this right now:

Dreaming of Julia
Goldencents
Lines of Battle
Overanalyze
Orb
Verrazano
Revolutionary
Java's War
Vyjack
Itsmyluckyday
Govenor Charlie
Will Take Charge
Oxbow
Black Onyx
Mylute
Den's Legacy
Super Ninety Nine
Frac Daddy
Normandy Invasion
Power Broker

Wouldn't that be a dream betting scenario? I would have bet against Dreaming of Julia with both fists in the Derby.

Paul

Can we get an Oaks probable list? I think Julia will be in tough against her own sex.

Quote:

Originally Posted by pweizer (Post 923827)

Wouldn't that be a dream betting scenario? I would have bet against Dreaming of Julia with both fists in the Derby.

Paul

If she wasn't a Pletcher horse going Gulfstream to Churchill ... I'd probably want to key her on top in the Derby.

There are absolutely zero question marks about the validity of her last performance. It can be quantified and it was a lot better than anyone elses best performance.

The question obviously is: Can she repeat it?

The Kentucky Oaks is a race not as well suited to her running style. It's overflowing with speed. All of the preps have been won impressively by horses with the same running style as hers.

The Kentucky Derby has such a relatively paceless look right now ... that Oxbow might be the most likely pacesetter.

I think if you're that dead set against Dreaming of Julia's Derby chances... find a closer in the Oaks and bet against her there.

The Oaks will be a demanding race because she's going to be stalking a couple of horses who are free running and have already posted huge figures sprinting. She'll pay a huge price for it in the stretch.