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-   -   Possible new handicaping show (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=45399)

northeastbound123 02-18-2012 05:09 PM

Great job 2/3 so far hope you cleaned house

Calzone Lord 02-18-2012 06:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pweizer (Post 839551)
Another horse from Doug's first podcast came back to win today at Turfway at 30-1. I only wish I had enough sense to play him.

Credit where credit is due. Great job Doug!

Paul

I appreciate that Paul!! It would have looked a lot worse if I posted about it.

He won wire-to-wire by more than 8 lengths at 30/1 odds...on the stretch out to a mile just like he figured.

http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...20120218&RN=10


Hopefully a few people got something out of the videos I did.

Platonium's last race is talked about at the 13:15 mark.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yDLzo...eature=related

cmorioles 02-18-2012 07:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 839587)
I appreciate that Paul!! It would have looked a lot worse if I posted about it.

He won wire-to-wire by more than 8 lengths at 30/1 odds...on the stretch out to a mile just like he figured.

http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...20120218&RN=10


Hopefully a few people got something out of the videos I did.

Platonium's last race is talked about at the 13:15 mark.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yDLzo...eature=related

Very cool. That horse had insane pace figures on my numbers, stood out as big time lone speed today.

pweizer 02-18-2012 07:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 839587)
I appreciate that Paul!! It would have looked a lot worse if I posted about it.

He won wire-to-wire by more than 8 lengths at 30/1 odds...on the stretch out to a mile just like he figured.

http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...20120218&RN=10


Hopefully a few people got something out of the videos I did.

Platonium's last race is talked about at the 13:15 mark.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yDLzo...eature=related

It was a great job. I hope there will be more videos to follow.

Paul

Dahoss 02-18-2012 07:53 PM

Excellent call DrugS.

Kasept 02-19-2012 07:31 AM

How about it? Nicely done Dougie!

Calzone Lord 02-19-2012 09:22 AM

Thanks guys.

I knew I was going to have a great day yesterday when it started off with this...




A super hottie works there but I sadly found out that she's like my 2nd or 3rd cousin a few years back...not that it would have stopped me or anything given the chance.

Coach Pants 02-19-2012 09:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 839670)
Thanks guys.

I knew I was going to have a great day yesterday when it started off with this...




A super hottie works there but I sadly found out that she's like my 2nd or 3rd cousin a few years back...not that it would have stopped me or anything given the chance.

pics?

Calzone Lord 02-19-2012 11:00 AM

No luck finding a pic. She has some trashy piercing and tattoos.

Coach Pants 02-19-2012 11:25 AM

Sounds like a California Medley. :{>:

Danzig 02-19-2012 12:29 PM

how's their french onion soup?

Calzone Lord 02-20-2012 12:13 AM

I made my girlfriend a cake for her birthday, Bogs. I thought you'd appreciate this with your love movie posters.




I broke two eggs on her kitchen floor by accident and got icing all over...but the end result was good.




I fouled up the 'Happy' by not leaving enough room for the 'Y'...it's hard to write on a cake with damn icing.




She probably most enjoyed how I cut the cake. That is just how you cut a cake in Doug World.

Sightseek 02-20-2012 06:22 AM

Is that strawberry with rainbow chip frosting??

My favorite!

Alabama Stakes 02-20-2012 07:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 837379)
There is no greater eye-candy than text like that.

Such good text and great racing... only to be spoiled by my Ben Stein like voice.



kind of cool actually....hearing a voice without that Albany accent. Ya know, the one that sounds kind of like an angry guy from Wis-CON-sin. Can't wait to hear your thoughts on the derby preps...

joeydb 02-22-2012 07:49 AM

Great job Doug. I'd definitely watch and "youtube subscribe" to your channel.

I did have a couple of questions:

1) Do you find the presence of a speed duel to be reliably predictable before the race?

2) When you say efficiency in your analysis, do you mean from a Brohamer percent energy usage point of view, saving ground in the run, both, or neither?

I think your analysis has some real value and I'm just trying to see how I would use it in my own approach to the race, before it is run of course.

Again, awesome idea and great format. I love how you showed all the data you were referring to and formatted it for easy viewing, along with the run itself since I am not much of a trip handicapper on my own.

Joe

RockHardTen1985 02-22-2012 07:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by joeydb (Post 840332)
Great job Doug. I'd definitely watch and "youtube subscribe" to your channel.

I did have a couple of questions:

1) Do you find the presence of a speed duel to be reliably predictable before the race?

2) When you say efficiency in your analysis, do you mean from a Brohamer percent energy usage point of view, saving ground in the run, both, or neither?

I think your analysis has some real value and I'm just trying to see how I would use it in my own approach to the race, before it is run of course.

Again, awesome idea and great format. I love how you showed all the data you were referring to and formatted it for easy viewing, along with the run itself since I am not much of a trip handicapper on my own.

Joe


Doug will have a much better answer for you... But do you follow Aqueduct? I have been betting Aqueduct almost daily and its getting really frustrating. On paper you have anywhere from 3-5 speeds, and 1 horse gets a soft lead. Its been going on all winter. So for question #1 I would say its almost impossible to predict it. What looks like a collapse on paper, a lot of times turns into a 1 speed number around the track.

joeydb 02-22-2012 08:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985 (Post 840336)
Doug will have a much better answer for you... But do you follow Aqueduct? I have been betting Aqueduct almost daily and its getting really frustrating. On paper you have anywhere from 3-5 speeds, and 1 horse gets a soft lead. Its been going on all winter. So for question #1 I would say its almost impossible to predict it. What looks like a collapse on paper, a lot of times turns into a 1 speed number around the track.

No, I am a casual player - I am sporadic in my attendance and play, but I do keep as many records as I can. I tend to use numerical tools more than anything else, hoping I can "tune" them for better accuracy but at least they will be consistent.

I was wondering if it even possible to have a loose predictor of the speed duel - nothing is perfect of course.

hoovesupsideyourhead 02-22-2012 08:06 AM

thread jack..

RockHardTen1985 02-22-2012 08:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by joeydb (Post 840338)
No, I am a casual player - I am sporadic in my attendance and play, but I do keep as many records as I can. I tend to use numerical tools more than anything else, hoping I can "tune" them for better accuracy but at least they will be consistent.

I was wondering if it even possible to have a loose predictor of the speed duel - nothing is perfect of course.

On paper, its very easy to predict. But then when the gate opens, it does not always turn out that way. Thats what makes this game so challenging.


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