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-   -   Jackson passes on Belmont with Rachel Alexandra (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=29970)

ateamstupid 05-31-2009 09:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig
the only way to really nip this argument in the bud is for someone to go thru and make a list of every horse than ran in the classics, and then look at what every one of them did after. producing a short list of horses, presumably the ones who did the best in the races, and then using their prematurely ending careers in no way proves anything-except that most of them, due to wins in the classics, were far more in demand for breeding. when outrageous sums of money are about to change hands, i would not in the least be surprised at any early, and lucrative retirement.
i think some are confusing success in the classics with suffering injuries in the classics. there's a huge difference between risking a horse in a race, and a horse being unable to race.

Thank you, well said.

King Glorious 05-31-2009 10:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cardus
Given your stance regarding the Belmont Stakes -- an anarchronistic distance -- winning the Triple Crown is not such a big deal, is it?

I think winning the TC is a big deal. I don't think winning the Belmont when it's not part of winning a TC is a big deal. It used to be. But it's not anymore. When I first started watching racing, the BC was new. For many people, including myself, while the BC was the year end championship, the fall races at Belmont were almost nearly as important. The JCGC was for years the championship defining race. During those years, the race was 12f. It made the Belmont a lot more significant to me because you wanted to know which 3yos could step up to that distance to take on the top older horses in the JCGC. But then they stopped running the JCGC at that distance. So for me, the Belmont didn't matter anymore. The only time it matters to me is when it's the final test for a 3yo trying to win the crown. Otherwise, it becomes much ado about nothing. Doesn't mean that some good horses haven't run in it and won it. But, especially the last 20 years, some pretty average to mediocre horses have also won it. I think that more horses win that race that would be considered below the standard for what we'd expect for the race than maybe any other top race.

Dunbar 06-01-2009 01:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig
the only way to really nip this argument in the bud is for someone to go thru and make a list of every horse than ran in the classics, and then look at what every one of them did after. producing a short list of horses, presumably the ones who did the best in the races, and then using their prematurely ending careers in no way proves anything-except that most of them, due to wins in the classics, were far more in demand for breeding. when outrageous sums of money are about to change hands, i would not in the least be surprised at any early, and lucrative retirement.
i think some are confusing success in the classics with suffering injuries in the classics. there's a huge difference between risking a horse in a race, and a horse being unable to race.

Super post, Danzig.

--Dunbar

Danzig 06-01-2009 03:57 PM

thanks ateam and dunbar. just proves the adage that even a blind squirrel can find an acorn once in a while. :D

Clip-Clop 06-01-2009 05:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cardus
Are most fans morons, or just not old enough to have seen Ruffian, for openers, race?

I'll go out on a limb and declare that no serious, educated racing fan older than 40 or 45 would consider her the greatest female of all-time were she to have won the Belmont Stakes this year.

I'm not saying that it would not have been a monumental achievement, but lets keep our historical perspective.

I am 34 and know that Azeri would bury RA. Not o mention the other fillies mentioned ie Ruffian.

Danzig 06-01-2009 05:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Clip-Clop
I am 34 and know that Azeri would bury RA. Not o mention the other fillies mentioned ie Ruffian.


please tell me that i'm reading this wrong-azeri would bury ruffian? or do you mean ruffian would bury rachel?

Clip-Clop 06-01-2009 05:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig
please tell me that i'm reading this wrong-azeri would bury ruffian? or do you mean ruffian would bury rachel?

RA= Rachel Alexandra.

I don't think Azeri would bury Ruffian but it is a nice match-up to imagine.

Clip-Clop 06-01-2009 05:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig
please tell me that i'm reading this wrong-azeri would bury ruffian? or do you mean ruffian would bury rachel?

Ruffian would destroy RA as well I think.

Theatrical 06-01-2009 06:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Clip-Clop
Ruffian would destroy RA as well I think.

No doubt. Because many fans these days are unfamiliar with Ruffian, except through books, youtube, etc., her brilliance is treated more as lore than fact. Make no mistake. Ruffian was all that.

King Glorious 06-01-2009 06:31 PM

Here is a list of all of the horses that have run in all three TC races since the start of 2000:

Impeachment
Monarchos
Point Given
AP Valentine
Dollar Bill
War Emblem
Proud Citizen
Medaglia d'Oro
Funny Cide
Scrimshaw
Smarty Jones
Giacomo
Afleet Alex
Hard Spun
Curlin
Big Brown

Here is a list of those that ran in the Derby and Preakness and skipped the Belmont during that same span:

Fusaichi Pegasus
Captain Steve
High Yield
Hal's Hope
Congaree
Harlan's Holiday
Peace Rules
Ten Cents a Shine
Lion Heart
Imperialism
Borrego
Song of the Sword
Closing Argument
Wilko
High Fly
Greeley's Galaxy
Noble Causeway
Sun King
Going Wild
High Limit
Brother Derek
Sweetnorthernsaint
Street Sense
Circular Quay
Gayego

Here's the list of those that ran in the Derby, skipped the Preakness, then ran in the Belmont during that same span:

Aptitude
Wheelaway
Curule
Commendable
Invisible Ink
Thunder Blitz
Balto Star
Perfect Drift
Essence of Dubai
Empire Maker
Ten Most Wanted
Birdstone
Master David
Andromeda's Hero
Bluegrass Cat
Steppenwolfer
Jazil
Deputy Glitters
Bob and John
Tiago
Rags to Riches
Denis of Cork
Tale of Ekati
Anak Nakal

Here's the list of those that skipped the Derby then ran in the Preakness and Belmont over that same span:

Hugh Heffner
Magic Weisner
Rock Hard Ten
Eddington
CP West
Macho Again
Icabad Crane

Indian Charlie 06-01-2009 11:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious
Here is a list of all of the horses that have run in all three TC races since the start of 2000:

Impeachment
Monarchos
Point Given
AP Valentine
Dollar Bill
War Emblem
Proud Citizen
Medaglia d'Oro
Funny Cide
Scrimshaw
Smarty Jones
Giacomo
Afleet Alex
Hard Spun
Curlin
Big Brown

Here is a list of those that ran in the Derby and Preakness and skipped the Belmont during that same span:

Fusaichi Pegasus
Captain Steve
High Yield
Hal's Hope
Congaree
Harlan's Holiday
Peace Rules
Ten Cents a Shine
Lion Heart
Imperialism
Borrego
Song of the Sword
Closing Argument
Wilko
High Fly
Greeley's Galaxy
Noble Causeway
Sun King
Going Wild
High Limit
Brother Derek
Sweetnorthernsaint
Street Sense
Circular Quay
Gayego

Here's the list of those that ran in the Derby, skipped the Preakness, then ran in the Belmont during that same span:

Aptitude
Wheelaway
Curule
Commendable
Invisible Ink
Thunder Blitz
Balto Star
Perfect Drift
Essence of Dubai
Empire Maker
Ten Most Wanted
Birdstone
Master David
Andromeda's Hero
Bluegrass Cat
Steppenwolfer
Jazil
Deputy Glitters
Bob and John
Tiago
Rags to Riches
Denis of Cork
Tale of Ekati
Anak Nakal

Here's the list of those that skipped the Derby then ran in the Preakness and Belmont over that same span:

Hugh Heffner
Magic Weisner
Rock Hard Ten
Eddington
CP West
Macho Again
Icabad Crane

Here's a list of posters that give a fug:

1.

chucklestheclown 06-02-2009 12:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious
Here is a list of all of the horses that have run in all three TC races since the start of 2000:

Impeachment
Monarchos
Point Given
AP Valentine
Dollar Bill
War Emblem
Proud Citizen
Medaglia d'Oro
Funny Cide
Scrimshaw
Smarty Jones
Giacomo
Afleet Alex
Hard Spun
Curlin
Big Brown

Here is a list of those that ran in the Derby and Preakness and skipped the Belmont during that same span:

Fusaichi Pegasus
Captain Steve
High Yield
Hal's Hope
Congaree
Harlan's Holiday
Peace Rules
Ten Cents a Shine
Lion Heart
Imperialism
Borrego
Song of the Sword
Closing Argument
Wilko
High Fly
Greeley's Galaxy
Noble Causeway
Sun King
Going Wild
High Limit
Brother Derek
Sweetnorthernsaint
Street Sense
Circular Quay
Gayego

Here's the list of those that ran in the Derby, skipped the Preakness, then ran in the Belmont during that same span:

Aptitude
Wheelaway
Curule
Commendable
Invisible Ink
Thunder Blitz
Balto Star
Perfect Drift
Essence of Dubai
Empire Maker
Ten Most Wanted
Birdstone
Master David
Andromeda's Hero
Bluegrass Cat
Steppenwolfer
Jazil
Deputy Glitters
Bob and John
Tiago
Rags to Riches
Denis of Cork
Tale of Ekati
Anak Nakal

Here's the list of those that skipped the Derby then ran in the Preakness and Belmont over that same span:

Hugh Heffner
Magic Weisner
Rock Hard Ten
Eddington
CP West
Macho Again
Icabad Crane

Assuming Barbaro belongs in the first flight it is obviously the superior flight of horses.

Rupert Pupkin 06-02-2009 02:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid
Empire Maker didn't run in all three, and he was made out of glass anyway, I'm pretty sure Silver Charm had a nice career, Charismatic had a freak injury, Giacomo was slow before the TC and slow after it and he did "finish" his three-year-old season with a good showing in the BCC, Big Brown and Bluegrass Cat both came back in two months to win the Haskell and the former had notoriously bad feet and was retired early because of a stud deal. Sorry, this ain't doing it. And why isn't everyone who's applauding this decision so loudly equally decrying the decision to run Mine That Bird? He's a nice little horse, yet nobody seems to mind him facing the supposedly inevitable TC knockout.

:rolleyes:

I agree with you that there are some breakdowns that are freak injuries. But I wouldn't consider Charismatic's breakdown a freak injury. Did you see Charismatic train the week leading up to the Belmont? That horse was as sore as any horse I have ever seen.

I agree with you that Giacomo was never really that great a horse to begin with so it's hard to say if the Triple Crown ruined him or not. The TC certainly knocked him out badly. He didn't even run after the Belmont until February of the next year. His respectable 4th place finish in the BC Classic was not in his 3 year old year. It was in his 4 year old year.

I would agree with you about Big Brown and Bluegrass Cat. Both came back to win again. After Big Brown's wins in the summer I think he ended up with another quarter crack. But I think he could have come back and run again if it wasn't for his stud deal.

Rupert Pupkin 06-02-2009 02:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig
the only way to really nip this argument in the bud is for someone to go thru and make a list of every horse than ran in the classics, and then look at what every one of them did after. producing a short list of horses, presumably the ones who did the best in the races, and then using their prematurely ending careers in no way proves anything-except that most of them, due to wins in the classics, were far more in demand for breeding. when outrageous sums of money are about to change hands, i would not in the least be surprised at any early, and lucrative retirement.
i think some are confusing success in the classics with suffering injuries in the classics. there's a huge difference between risking a horse in a race, and a horse being unable to race.

I would agree with you that horses who retired sound due to stud deals should obviously not be mentioned on lists of horses that the Triple Crown ruined. But there are plenty of horses that the TC knocked out that were never the same again. There is no doubt that the Triple Crown is grueling. There isn't a single trainer that would dispute that. The only question is whether the TC is so grueling that it causes irreperable damage. I would say that in some cases it does and in some cases it doesn't. It depends on the horse.

Danzig 06-02-2009 05:11 AM

but in many cases i believe that horses who suffer an injury and subsequently retire only do so because of successes in the t.c. races which would then warrant a better stud deal. many times it is admitted that a horse could come back from an injury-but 'we were going to retire him, so there's no point'. or there's 'he wouldn't make the bc, so there's no point'. either way, the horse was done at three. or maybe a horse seems just a bit off, so they retire rather than risk a loss-same excuse given. something isnt quite right in their mind, so they don't want to risk it.

Danzig 06-02-2009 05:14 AM

but in many cases i believe that horses who suffer an injury and subsequently retire only do so because of successes in the t.c. races which would then warrant a better stud deal. many times it is admitted that a horse could come back from an injury-but 'we were going to retire him, so there's no point'. or there's 'he wouldn't make the bc, so there's no point'. either way, the horse was done at three. or maybe a horse seems just a bit off, so they retire rather than risk a loss-same excuse given. something isnt quite right in their mind, so they don't want to risk it.

i think when people say phantom injury-it's possible their belief is that something minor is made out to be something that would force retirement, and in many cases it just isn't that serious. but we also know that horses can be injured and not come back as well-again, as i said above, it has to do with risk.
as for grueling- i don't know that the tc is any more gruelling than any series of races. horses are injured after running a series before getting to the t.c.-old fashioned for example. the progression from 6/7 f to 1 1/8 can be just as demanding for these horses.

Rupert Pupkin 06-02-2009 01:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig
but in many cases i believe that horses who suffer an injury and subsequently retire only do so because of successes in the t.c. races which would then warrant a better stud deal. many times it is admitted that a horse could come back from an injury-but 'we were going to retire him, so there's no point'. or there's 'he wouldn't make the bc, so there's no point'. either way, the horse was done at three. or maybe a horse seems just a bit off, so they retire rather than risk a loss-same excuse given. something isnt quite right in their mind, so they don't want to risk it.

i think when people say phantom injury-it's possible their belief is that something minor is made out to be something that would force retirement, and in many cases it just isn't that serious. but we also know that horses can be injured and not come back as well-again, as i said above, it has to do with risk.
as for grueling- i don't know that the tc is any more gruelling than any series of races. horses are injured after running a series before getting to the t.c.-old fashioned for example. the progression from 6/7 f to 1 1/8 can be just as demanding for these horses.

You don't know if the TC is more grueling than other series of races? Is there another series of races that even comes close to the TC in terms of being demanding on the horse? They run 3 times in 5 weeks and finish with a 1 1/2 mile race. And the horses aren't even fully mature yet. There's no other series of races that even comes close to that.


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