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-   -   9/12: BEL C/O ($608k Friday!!) (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=24949)

blackthroatedwind 09-10-2008 05:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CSC
I saw it a little differently, I thought Coa moved a little early on the horse. Perhaps if the horse was much the best it would have been not mattered. But he probably is just an "ok" type.

I don't know if he necessarily " moved early " in as much as he sort of had no choice after being squeezed out after the start. The only real chance he probably had was to get into the race. His trip obviously compromised him but IMO it's an unfair oversimplification to claim it was jockey error. He was more a victim of circumstance.

ateamstupid 09-10-2008 05:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
He was.
Seems like good value. Must've been all of you meanies yelling at me that he was an 'obvious toss' that made me retroactively not bet him.

blackthroatedwind 09-10-2008 05:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ateamstupid
Seems like good value. Must've been all of you meanies yelling at me he was an 'obvious toss' that made me retroactively not bet him.

Well, then, we were right.

However, I doubt I said he was an " obvious " toss. Not, however, the kind of horse I would bet.

ateamstupid 09-10-2008 05:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Well, then, we were right.

However, I doubt I said he was an " obvious " toss. Not, however, the kind of horse I would bet.
:wf forget it.

docicu3 09-10-2008 06:23 PM
Assuming they go:

Dr. Decter has to be a BET AGAINST.

and...


I think it's far from 'nonsense' to call Dr. Decter a bet against. He obviously can win, but is an almost certain underlay.
__________________

The problem here was, in retrospect, that these comments are about a win bet in a thread that was about playing the P6.

The only reason I bring it up is that as a group we were not that far of from hitting the damn thing. If we were more focused on the positives from the efforts the group would likely make a ton of money instead of dividing itself into fractions of ineptitude of which I am as guilty as anyone here. Let's get something going for omorrow and put this nonsense behind us.

ryonker 09-10-2008 06:25 PM
OK- so do I get another imaginary $2k for tomorrow? :)

CSC 09-10-2008 06:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I don't know if he necessarily " moved early " in as much as he sort of had no choice after being squeezed out after the start. The only real chance he probably had was to get into the race. His trip obviously compromised him but IMO it's an unfair oversimplification to claim it was jockey error. He was more a victim of circumstance.
That's an interesting point of view I never thought of, I certainly wasn't angry with Coa after that race, my initial thought was it was simply a missed opportunity knowing it was unlikely he would be a decent price his next start.

ateamstupid 09-10-2008 06:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by docicu3
The problem here was, in retrospect, that these comments are about a win bet in a thread that was about playing the P6.

The only reason I bring it up is that as a group we were not that far of from hitting the damn thing. If we were more focused on the positives from the efforts the group would likely make a ton of money instead of dividing itself into fractions of ineptitude of which I am as guilty as anyone here. Let's get something going fort omorrow and put this nonsense behind us.
So no one can say anything about the card unless it's Pick 6 related? I don't remember that being the rule.

And I was one who almost hit the damn thing, so I obviously never would've called Dr. Decter an obvious toss.

I agree though, that it's time to move on to tomorrow.

blackthroatedwind 09-10-2008 06:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by docicu3
Assuming they go:

Dr. Decter has to be a BET AGAINST.

and...


I think it's far from 'nonsense' to call Dr. Decter a bet against. He obviously can win, but is an almost certain underlay.
__________________

The problem here was, in retrospect, that these comments are about a win bet in a thread that was about playing the P6.

The only reason I bring it up is that as a group we were not that far of from hitting the damn thing. If we were more focused on the positives from the efforts the group would likely make a ton of money instead of dividing itself into fractions of ineptitude of which I am as guilty as anyone here. Let's get something going fort omorrow and put this nonsense behind us.

What this really sounds like is a redboard. As a group? Huh? Was there some mythical $20K ticket that was being played with everyone's opinion that would have hit this thing? Because, even if Dr. Decter was singled ( a pretty brash assumption ) then how exactly were all the other winners going to get on a ticket?

Anyone that thinks my opinion ( I can't speak for the Fat Man ) suggested leaving him completely off a Pick-6 ticket would completely misconstrue my thoughts in this thread and just about everything I have ever said publicly. He was clearly an A in any serious Pick-6 play....just not a horse I would key on in individual race bets. These are two very seperate concepts.

the_fat_man 09-10-2008 06:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Exactly. The point at least I was making was that I thought he would be overbet and it was a tricky race. As it turned out, the 1 and 11 crushed the field, and I was wrong, but even though I would never have bet Dr. Decter I would never have left him out of a real Pick-6 play.

In fact, if I made a $2K play he would have been one of the two winners on my ticket! I think my only decent opinion was that it was probably going to carry again....though I have no idea how the last winner paid $18.

The key is the scratch of the 2B and the 12. With them in the race, there's actually some pace --in terms of chasers, and they get the same trip as the 11. Without them it's a 2 horse race and, assuming the 11 is not a need-the-lead type, he gets the perfect setup. I mean, how is the 1 going to wire the field when he couldn't get it done going 5.5F last out, and, more importantly, the turf is yielding? As it was, the 11 proved to not be much: perfect trip and all and he was in drive to win the race. And, the 1 didn't change leads until just before the wire.

For the record: the FATMAN doesn't play Pick6's. And, given the scratches, he didn't play the race.

hoovesupsideyourhead 09-10-2008 07:05 PM
with all kidding aside..the heated jabs are getting old.. if people suggest that a horse has a chance in a race lets lose the big head and discuss the reasons why..the intolerent or the more expert cappers would do well by steve and all to teach and mentor than ridicule and scowl..the reasons we all love this game differ. but some of the board members might enjoy an open exchange of ideas....i for one will do my best to help this transition ...

hooves..

ninetoone 09-10-2008 07:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead
with all kidding aside..the heated jabs are getting old.. if people suggest that a horse has a chance in a race lets lose the big head and discuss the reasons why..the intolerent or the more expert cappers would do well by steve and all to teach and mentor than ridicule and scowl..the reasons we all love this game differ. but some of the board members might enjoy an open exchange of ideas....i for one will do my best to help this transition ...

hooves..
Well said. Not sure where it got started in this thread, but it just takes one nasty comment to send the conversation downhill. I don't think the first shot always comes from the experts either.

hoovesupsideyourhead 09-10-2008 07:16 PM
ok what do you do with the bush coa 100k dropper in the 8th single or runaway..or use with others? race 8 pp8 mighty eros

GPK 09-10-2008 07:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead
ok what do you do with the bush coa 100k dropper in the 8th single or runaway..or use with others? race 8 pp8 mighty eros

Off since April 07...this one a prep for something down the road?

ninetoone 09-10-2008 07:22 PM
I like Maragh on the 6 myself.

GPK 09-10-2008 07:29 PM
She's clearly better than these...just a matter of what their intentions are with her tomorrow.

Some other speed signed on, so if she goes to the front, she surely won't be alone. Will they maybe try and teach her to rate a little tomorrow? A few questions out there to consider.

CSC 09-10-2008 07:36 PM
Remember Midnight Lute a couple of weeks ago making his first start in 9 1/2 months at 4/5 in a gr.1 for a trainer who likes to race his horses? To me that was a great example of playing against a horse.

hoovesupsideyourhead 09-10-2008 07:38 PM
im not sure that this horse doesent dust them in a hand ride..coa up to me means they want to win..and bush has been stinking up the joint..his work pattern suggest to me that he is ready for this..

ateamstupid 09-10-2008 07:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead
ok what do you do with the bush coa 100k dropper in the 8th single or runaway..or use with others? race 8 pp8 mighty eros
She's not a dropper. I think she has to be used, even with the layoff, but I'd be wary about singling her. There are a couple of decent fillies in here (Oniyome, Casey's Tribe) and doubt she's going to an easy lead with Silvercup Baby and Aegean Breeze in the race.

hoovesupsideyourhead 09-10-2008 07:44 PM
of course this is a win lose deal you single he stops you lose..so maybee we can find a new race to look at for a single?


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