Misread what you said...so yes we think completely opposite. :D

Obviously it depends on how this race shakes out but if he wins here it would be to me the most impressive performance thus far in a season full of crap and slow horses and I wouldn't hesitate to bet him in the Derby.

That being said...I still think he has no chance whatsoever Saturday and will put my money where my mouth is this weekend.

He has to run absolutely huge this weekend to run in the KY Derby because time is running out. This is his race because they won't wheel him back next weekend, and I doubt they would wheel him back in the Bluegrass or Arkansas Derby. So he either gets in the top two this weekend to get to the Derby or adios.

Running that big will lead to a bounce, especially for a horse that has had his problems. Personally, while I am playing against him this weekend, I almost hope he runs out of his mind and runs absolutely huge so I will be able to take advantage of it while at the Derby, he won't be on ANY of my tickets Derby day, regardless....

I'm still taking a wait and see approach until the day comes.
I would be surprised if there wasn't at least one scratch.
Majestic Warrior has a poor post, and doesn't need the earnings to get into the Derby.Makes more sense for him to re-route to an easier spot.
This is Face the Cat's only shot at getting in, so maybe they go another way too.
Regardless, Smooth Air and Fierce Wind both look a lot more playable with their inside draws.

Smooth Air = NO.....I can't argue about Fierce Wind in that I don't know enough about him

It all depends on Fierce Wind.
He has gate quickness and route speed and the ideal post. The next closest speed is gate7.

How much will BB Frank and Face The Cat fight him for the lead? How game will Fierce Wind be?

If Fierce Wind runs a strong effort, everyone else has to work very hard.

If Fierce Wind weakens, Elysium Fields or Big Brown can cruise up to even terms, and still have horse left.

What don't you like about Smooth Air, Scav?

I just think there are better horses in the race. I don't think he gets the distance and he just isn't fast enough right now. Who did he really beat in the Hutcheson? I can't recall the trip he got but my guess it was a good one

I never knew racing fans in Peru had their own message board.

But doesn't he have a tactical advantage? With all those horses trapped outside he should work out a better trip than them. . . He might not have to be better than them. Also, his last race at GP was very impressive and I think he's better bred for the distance than people realize.

I was skeptical of Smooth Air too, at first. I don't think the distance will be an issue, especially breaking for the 2 post. His connections have obviously been pointing to this race, and his work pattern is pretty impressive.
2 straight breezes going a mile, followed by a 7F work, followed by a bullet
5F work on Tuesday. He looks as fit as can be, and has a legititimate shot to hit the board. If the track is wet, he moves up even more.

Wtf?!
 

According to the DRF entries Gulfstream doesn't have a PK4 on Saturday. . .

Maybe try this?

http://www.jcp.org.pe/

That would be odd... What would be the reason for that?

EDIT- Looks like they're having a 50 cent pick 6. Do they normally do this?
Maybe they're marketing that wager, and feel the pot will be bigger without the Pick 4.

EDIT - again. DRF now shows the Pick 4 going races 9-12.

Don't know if this has been posted already, but free PPs (and a few other products) for Florida Derby on Equibase home page.

http://www.equibase.com/

I see they have a poll over there....can someone who knows more than just half of the English Language tell me what this means....


JOCKEY CLUB DEL PERU
RESULTADOS DE LA ENCUESTA
¿ Cómo llegará Tomcito el sábado en el Florida Derby (Gr.1) ?

Cuarto o más atrás : 432 64.9%
Ganará : 205 30.8%
Segundo : 21 3.2%
Tercero : 8 1.2%
Total Encuestados: 666


It seems like almost 2/3rds of the 666 people who voted say Tomcito will finish Cuarto O Mas Atras...while almost 1/3rd has him finishing Ganara.

And my title says Tomcito sucks a.ss

from the google translator:

How come Tomcito Saturday in the Florida Derby (Gr.1)?

Fourth or more back: 432 64.9%
Win: 205 30.8%
Second: 21 3.2%
Third: 8 1.2%
Respondent Total: 666

and according to the google translator

Tomcito chupa culo is Tomcito sucks a.ss

CP's is Tomcito aspires to be a donkey

I don't speak spanish but have to use the translator alot.

They have two listed now. . . One starting in Race 5 and one in Race 9. . .

Same figure as Elysium Fields, but EF's number has alot of wideness built into it. Not that I am touting this horse, but Hey Byrn's number two back would smoke BB and EF, but that was at a mile.

Not too much mention of Hey Byrn. He appears to me in tip-top form, loves the track and don't underestimate his trainer who is 18% in Graded Stakes. His running style is perfect for a race like this, and having a jockey that isn't a "top name" he will be an overlay.

my tri:

9 /1,2,6,8/ all = $40
9 in the 2nd slot too.