I'm feelin' it on FP today... R2 #7 Stefanie C

FP R7 - #6 Stop the Race

Just putting today's results at the end of the thread... I go ape on FP...it's like defending the home turf. :)

5/23

Suffolk R1 - #2 Cruisin on Faith (Out of the Money, try to figure that one out in a 5 horse field)

------Round 9-------

Suffolk R8 - #5 Carlow (my first pick ran 2nd, this one ran LAST)...


HOW MUCH HAVE I LOST IN TOTAL DUNBAR? THAT WOULD BE $900, BY THESE RULES.

------Round 10-------

Suffolk R9 - #9 Satire WON paid $2.20 - Running Total = $110

HOL R1 - #5 Eye Candy Sandi 2nd paid $2.10 - Running Total = $116

HOL R7 - #4 Idiot Proof WON paid $2.10 - Running Total = $122

5/24

CD 2nd - Leo's Pegasus

BEL 8th - Harlington

HOL 1st - Gemstone Jean

HOL 3rd - Blue Cay

HOL 4th - Windy

Yup. You're at -900. You're going to need to finish a couple of 10-bet runs to get back into contention. So far what you've shown is how hard it is to win 10 show bets in a row!

btw, your Harlington pick would give me pause.

--Dunbar

He's done it on 10 mos. layoff before...


Let's assume the rules of this experiment were 5 straight rather than 10 straight. How often would a person have to win assuming a 75% profit can be shown on average for a 5 race parlay? Over half the time?

I'll take the 7 right now in the first at CD. Out of Aces

------Round 10-------

Suffolk R9 - #9 Satire WON paid $2.20 - Running Total = $110

HOL R1 - #5 Eye Candy Sandi 2nd paid $2.10 - Running Total = $116

HOL R7 - #4 Idiot Proof WON paid $2.10 - Running Total = $122

5/24

CD R1 - #7 Out of Aces 3rd and paid $2.10 - Running Total = $128

CD R2 - #5 Leo's Pegasus 2nd paid $2.60 - Running Total = $166

HOL R1 - #2 Gemstone Jean WON paid $2.10 - Running Total = $174

BEL R8 - #2 Harlington WON paid $2.50 - Running Total = $218

HOL R3 - #5 Blue Cay WON paid $2.80 - Running Total = $305

HOL R4 - #4 Windy 3rd paid $2.20 - Running Total = $336

Say you either lose 1 or win 0.75.
If X=% of time you need to win to break even, then

0.75 * X + (-1) * (1-X) = 0. because 1-X is the percent of time that you will lose.

.75X + (X-1) = 0

1.75X = 1

X = 57%.

That's how often you'd have to win to break even under your assumptions for 5-in-a-row.

--Dunbar

Round 10, 1 more...
 

------Round 10-------

Suffolk R9 - #9 Satire WON paid $2.20 - Running Total = $110

HOL R1 - #5 Eye Candy Sandi 2nd paid $2.10 - Running Total = $116

HOL R7 - #4 Idiot Proof WON paid $2.10 - Running Total = $122

CD R1 - #7 Out of Aces 3rd and paid $2.10 - Running Total = $128

CD R2 - #5 Leo's Pegasus 2nd paid $2.60 - Running Total = $166

HOL R1 - #2 Gemstone Jean WON paid $2.10 - Running Total = $174

BEL R8 - #2 Harlington WON paid $2.50 - Running Total = $218

HOL R3 - #5 Blue Cay WON paid $2.80 - Running Total = $305

HOL R4 - #4 Windy 3rd paid $2.20 - Running Total = $336

GG Last Race - #1 Itza Hemi :)

ahhhhhhhhhhhhh dammitohell!!! I can't get to 10 for the life of me... that was a LOCK!!! What's goin' on??? Oh well, 9 straight....no luck on the 10th.

Round 11 to commence probably next week.

Hi again jman5581. It's a tough game. I was wondering where you would be now if you wagered only 1/2 your bankroll on each horse since you started. You certainly would have your initial wager whatever that may have been.
Anyway good luck on the next round.

I don't think that's necessarily true. Show me some numbers.

--Dunbar

Frustrating, I'm sure! But "a lock" in a maiden claimer? Also, another horse was 9-5, so your horse's 3-2 is not a sign of overwhelming support.

Tough loss, anyway.

--Dunbar

I'm not going back in the thread to track every wager made but the idea is that if the first wager was $100 and successful (example: first winner pays $2.20. Bankroll=$110. Next wager is $55 to show. Horse loses. Bankroll= $55. Next wager is $28 to show, so on and so forth. While the original $100 may not be left at this point in time the losses that jman5581 has incurred are limited and he has enough winners to offset a periodic loss.

I adjusted the amounts using my proposal and after 10 races it's back to square 1 and the original $100 is almost intact.

#1 Itza Hemi lost $95. bankroll =$95

Less risk = less reward, but I think the idea is fairly slick and could work out in one's favor over a LONG period of time... slow and steady can win the race. As in investing.

I was caught up in the moment, just trying to complete a round. I hate Golden Gate Fields.