Originally Posted by jpops757

Did you see the race? The inside was there but he chose to go outside. AGS was ahead of SS and chose to go outside. How can you say AGS was better mthan SS.

Originally Posted by philcski

Cannon, recheck your stats on this one. The outside posts (10,11,12) in routes are something like 6 for 100 this year... not GP bad but pretty tough. In sprints, outside seems to be better, or at least fair, however.

I was super impressed by this performance. I know the Polytrack throws a lot of indifference into people's analysis, but it's not like he hasn't run well on traditional dirt. No matter what the surface, he was 3 wide on a solid pace and ran away when asked. The field was spread out behind him- it was a good 10-12 lengths back to 4th place... the mark of a REALLY good performance.

I couldn't kill Pino for being 3-4 wide at Oaklawn. There was nowhere to go, and why sacrifice the horse in that race when there are bigger and better objectives down the road? Take it as a learning experience, pick up a small check, and try again.

Originally Posted by jjf1031

If jockey chose to go outside yet horse still ran SS to a nose decision, how does that not make it a superior race. Have to agree with JJP

Originally Posted by Kasept

Don't know why anyone would try to seperate 'the superior race' from between Any Given Saturday and Street Sense at Tampa or what is accomplished in trying to do so...

Saturday had the advantagve of a race over the surface and 2nd/start off the layoff... Street Sense had the disadvantage of first start off a 100+ day layoff and a trip over the slower part of the track... Saturday lost some ground on the turn and Street saved some... They arrived at the wire together. Equally terrific performances and neither deserves to be identified as 'superior'.

They each were superb and they both exit the race as worthy of praise and expectations of ongoing excellence this campaign.

Originally Posted by Kasept

Don't know why anyone would try to seperate 'the superior race' from between Any Given Saturday and Street Sense at Tampa or what is accomplished in trying to do so...

Saturday had the advantagve of a race over the surface and 2nd/start off the layoff... Street Sense had the disadvantage of first start off a 100+ day layoff and a trip over the slower part of the track... Saturday lost some ground on the turn and Street saved some... They arrived at the wire together. Equally terrific performances and neither deserves to be identified as 'superior'.

They each were superb and they both exit the race as worthy of praise and expectations of ongoing excellence this campaign.

Originally Posted by jjf1031

Steve

I was just making the comment that jockey decision to go outside on AGS does not lower the effort he put in. If anything it makes it stronger that he overcame the decision

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

As of 3/24 post 10 in route races at TP was 12%.

Originally Posted by philcski

1: 15/120
2: 22/120
3: 14/120
4: 17/120
5: 10/120
6: 12/120
7: 12/114
8: 8/103
9: 3/87
10: 3/66
11: 2/46
12: 3/21

So the outside 4 posts were a combined 11 for 220 (5%). Once again... not GP bad but certainly a disadvantage.

Originally Posted by Kasept

Phil..

Would actually be 11 of 153, no?

87 with 9 horses; another 21 with 10; 20 with 11 and 25 with 12...

Originally Posted by philcski

220 starters in 120 races; of which 87 had at least 9 starters, 66 >=10 starters, 46 >=11 starters, and 21 >= 12 starters. I see how you are looking at it but I think you've got yourself mixed up- if you said "how did the inside 2 posts do" you'd say 37 for 240, right?

Originally Posted by Kasept

I would say 37 for 120. There is only the finite universe of number of opportunities (races). There wouldn't be 220 opps for the 1 or 2.. only the 120 opps. But you're likely right as there were 21 opps for the 12 to win; 46 for the 11, etc..

Originally Posted by Kasept

jjf,

Agree.. I'd also say that Johnny V's constant over/under shoulder glancing to watch for Street Sense worked against Any Given Saturday.. Takes a horse and rider out of their rhythm..

Originally Posted by pgardn

This is something I really dont like jocks to do with younger horses. JV is very good, but I have seen him do this before and the horse quits paying attention to his purpose. I know JV needs to make a decision on what to do, and maybe he is experimenting (if the horse will keep on task), but I have seen horses lose their concentration and rythym based on what they feel the jockey doing up top.

Some of these horses are not cars that will just keep going while you glance around, even with foot on pedal.

Originally Posted by Kasept

P,

It's more than losing focus too.. There's the matter of distribution of weight. When a jock shifts his body or shoulders to sneak a peak, it changes the balance above and causes a horse a loss of fluidity or action that is measureable ultimately in lost ground. When you talk about losing photos by the width of a piece of paper, it becomes important.. Velasquez looked 4 times for Street Sense on and out of the turn.

The point is: "Ride YOUR horse.. don't try to ride your opponents."

Or as Woody Allen said in "Love and Death" (I think).. "My Uncle Vladimir, not a smart man, but, you know, wise.. always said, 'You can't ride two horses with one tuchas.'"

Originally Posted by jjf1031

If jockey chose to go outside yet horse still ran SS to a nose decision, how does that not make it a superior race. Have to agree with JJP

Originally Posted by philcski

interesting... i looked at a sample size of 120 races from Sept-Dec, and the breakdown was as follows for races a mile and greater:
1: 15/120
2: 22/120
3: 14/120
4: 17/120
5: 10/120
6: 12/120
7: 12/114
8: 8/103
9: 3/87
10: 3/66
11: 2/46
12: 3/21

So the outside 4 posts were a combined 11 for 220 (5%). Once again... not GP bad but certainly a disadvantage.

Originally Posted by philcski

interesting... i looked at a sample size of 120 races from Sept-Dec, and the breakdown was as follows for races a mile and greater:
1: 15/120
2: 22/120
3: 14/120
4: 17/120
5: 10/120
6: 12/120
7: 12/114
8: 8/103
9: 3/87
10: 3/66
11: 2/46
12: 3/21

So the outside 4 posts were a combined 11 for 220 (5%). Once again... not GP bad but certainly a disadvantage.

Originally Posted by todko

Tough to get a statistically significant stat from such a small sample.

Originally Posted by Payson Dave

Hey Cannon,
Did everyone ship ok?? Are you back at Churchill?