About to burn some more money on Love That Bird.

I’d be curious to know what Irad’s success rate is with speed horses. Seems he can come from off the pace but often loses on front running favorites.

Define "Speed Horse"? I can get that answer for you if you do.

If Speed horse means on the lead at first call here are his YTD stats

All other Jocks

Thanks for that. Maybe my perception is off then.

$216.00 wagered
$210.20 returned

Alabama Day picks. Going all out for Brown/Klaravich.

Race 7 - #4 Tax Implicatons, 5/1
Race 9 - #8 Randomized, 9/2

Prisoner was super game and given a great ride to pay 6.60/4.60. Go Otta Go wasn't good enough.

Wagered: $216.00
Returned: $250.70

Best Bet: Race 9 - #3 Julia Shining 5/1 - Been waiting for her since the Ashland where I thought she was best and while this isn't the most appealing price trying something difficult going 1 1/4 today off a layoff she appears to be working well for this...i ultimately am just looking for a fresh face against this crew that is just OK and while she's obvious on pedigree and connections I'm not so sure she isn't just the most talented of this division. The question marks should lead to at least a square enough price today.

Best Value: Race 7 - #4 Tax Implications 5/1 - Pretty obvious to most that she seemed best over Surge Capacity with the trips considered and I just like her best of the Chad horses at what most likely will be the longest price especially with Manny aboard, who I'm more than fine with.

:tro:

Thanks.

I can’t believe she went off 7/1.

Randomized with a big win in the Alabama after Tax Implications was bet down but could not catch them. Brown/Rosario on Randomized combined for $22.40 back. And I’m back in the green.

$224.00 wagered
$232.60 returned

Nice pick and glad to see you back in the black Moses - that was some price on Randomized.

I butchered the late pick 5 getting way too aggressive with Tax Implications :zz:

Not a pick for this obviously but I love Impact Warrior tonight in the Del Mar Oaks for what its worth. I do think Anisette is legit but going to take a big swing if getting 5/2 or better

I’m interested in Be Your Best. She was on the same part of the course as Aspray in the Belmont Oaks when the rail was so strong,

Thanks. Hopefully can stay there. That was a tough race but I was surprised Tax Implications didn’t finish better.

Sunday picks.

First bet: Race 4 - #5 She’s Fire, 4/1
Second bet: Race 7 - #4 Mount Up, 8/1

224.00
250.70

Best Bet: Race 4 - #2 Crown Imperial 7/2 - Really like this one today based on the common race three of the main contenders come out of from Monmouth. Get the sense that most are gravitating to the winner/third place finishers from there but I think the head on is very telling if you take the time to watch it closely. This one took a solid bump coming on the gate then was stymied in traffic on the turn before taking a couple serious bumps and was basically turned sideways/lost all momentum. Still was making up ground in the stretch and I think turns the tables today.

Best Value: Race 8 - #1 Shaky Pants 20/1 - Taking a bit of a stab on a horse that will have to improve leaps and bounds today. Its easy to dismiss this one off the low fig on debut but that was back in September as a two year old. Now gets Lasix and reportedly was gelded since. Additionally the trip on debut was brutal in my eyes. Broke slow and then made a premature move into contention before flattening badly late. They paid a decent amount for this son of Bee Jersey which should indicate some talent. His works have really picked up since the return to training and I'm not sure there are any killers in here.

Bonus - Not an official play and I ultimately decided she's probably in too tough today but I'm a little interested in Causeways Jewel in the 6th today. This one is a full to Emmanuel and stayed on a touch longer Ina decent pace on the dirt on debut. Could see where based on the breeding you'd liked to have seen a little more running but it sure looked like JV decided to turn it into a spin around the track. The fact that he's back aboard today, with some speed, intrigues me at what should be a big price.

Mount Up won, paying $13.70 for WP.

$232.00 wagered
$246.30 returned

Wednesday picks.

I'm hoping that the turf races get to go on Wednesday.

First bet: Race 3 - #2 Coppola 10/1. Yes, I'm burning more money on this horse. I still think he's pretty talented and was impressed with his race last time out against some pretty strong competition for an allowance race. I think this field is a little bit softer than the one from last time and he may find himself setting a slightly easier pace than last time out...IF he even goes to the front. There's at least a possibility that he may try to sit back in 2nd or 3rd early on. That's what he did in his lone turf win at Churchill. It remains to be seen...but I do think he's got some talent and definitely think he's worth a shot at 10/1.

Second bet: Race 2 - #7 Unflappable Max 6/1. I'm expecting a fast pace in this race and will be looking for this Finger Lakes invader to be coming late. Anthony Ferraro gets Irad to take the mount and he should hopefully be able to work out a trip from a little bit off the pace. The workouts tell me that he's in good shape. I like the other Finger Lakes horses in here as well...and am simply against the heavy favorite Perfect Munnings who drops from stakes races to the claiming ranks after 8 months off and a switch from Pletcher to Rice. I've just got no interest in that horse at a short price.

Changing my 2nd bet to Race 5 - #7 Charge Nurse 8/1. I just think with irad aboard, Unflappable Max will be overbet. Charge Nurse looks to set the pace and I’m not sure there will be much pressure.

Charge Nurse scrtched so put me back on Unflappable Max in the 2nd.

Wagered: $232.00
Returned: $256.40

Shaky Pants was nowhere. Crown Imperial was a very generous 8/1 but couldn't quite hold off Amidst Waves despite a perfect trip and paid $5.70 to place.

8/23:

Best Bet: Race 7 - #8 Sy Dog 5/1 - Always had a thing for this one and certainly is bred to get a route of ground. His four year old season has been a real disappointment but I want to give him one more chance here on the stretch out that he can show the kind of upside I've long believed he possesses.

Best Value: Race 6 - #5 Dixie Pharoah 8/1 - Bred to stretch out and Handal typically improves them second time out. Feels like his barn is starting to wake up and I trust Dylan to have this one in the right spot to spring an upset if that hoped improvement occurs today.

Coppola almost won but ran a solid 2nd, paying $12.80 to place. My other pick had no chance.

$240.00 wagered
$259.10 returned

^Nice pick with Coppola, thought you were going to get home.

Wagered: $240.00
Returned: $260.40

Dixie Pharoah was dreadful. Sy Dog ran OK I guess but Tawny Port was an hour the best. He paid $4.00 to place.

Thanks theguarantee. I thought he was gonna hold him off. But still ran very well.

Thursday picks.

I’m hoping these races can stay on the turf because there are some nice fields today.

First bet: Race 3 - #4 Main Event 6/1. I think this horse had everything against him last time out. Off nearly a year layoff in 4YO debut and had the pace pressed a bit by eventual winner Jerry the Nipper. Granted, Kuramata (Brown), Unanimous Consent (Brown), and Grand Sonata (Pletcher) were all off similar layoffs but those barns tend to perform better off the long layoff than Weaver. I expect him to be in better shape this time around and I don’t really see any horse challenging him on the front end as I think Safe Conduct is too slow to really provide much pressure. Looking to wire them at 6/1 (or maybe better as I expect Easter and Kuramata to really get hammered at the tote.)

Second bet: Race 6 - #9 Fauci 8/1. I’ve always thought this horse was a bit overrated but he’s certainly talented, finishing in the money in 14 of 18 career starts (only 2 wins) and 5 ITM finishes in 5 career starts at Saratoga (though no wins). I don’t love the post position but he’s now got Prat aboard and I’ll trust Prat to put him in good position to close into what should be a pretty honest pace. At 8/1, I think he’s worth taking a chance on. He’s been 8/1 or higher in 4 of his last 10 starts, finishing 2nd once (by a neck) and 3rd thrice (missing first or second by 3/4 lengths in each of those). Point being, he should be competitive here, should get a favorable pace scenario, should improve in 2nd off layoff, gets a jockey upgrade, and should be a nice price. I’m giving him another shot (no pun intended.)

Rosario is KILLING me this meet

Best Bet: Race 4 #4 Anthracite 5/1 - Interesting connections bring him up today and think just needs to get back to the race two back and show speed to be a factor in here today.

Best Value: Race 9 #1 Jumbly 6/1 - Not that I don't think this field is pretty good but I do think its ripe for a new face. Not sure how good Jumbly really is but I don't think the Euro form is far off the better runners in here and she figures to be the best price of the ones I think can win in here today. I also don't mind the idea of taking a Euro runner on the course despite the decent weather the past few days.

I liked Fauci at 8/1. Not really crazy about him at 7/2…but I’ll stick with it. Hopefully that price goes up a bit.

Fauci ran well, finishing 2nd but couldn’t run the winner down. Main Event is out of excuses. He’s just not as good as I thought.

$248.00 wagered
$263.70 returned

Friday picks.

First bet: Race 9 - #6 Clairiere 5/2. With the addition of some forwardly placed horses, I don’t think Nest will get as easy of a trip this time out. I love Clairiere here and don’t mind taking a short price on her.

Second bet: Race 8 - #7 Modern Love 12/1. I had originally handicapped this card with the assumption that all turf races would be off. This one stays on and I want to take a shot on Modern Love. They’ve tried to get her on turf a few times to no avail. Has a turf pedigree. Not really impressed with any of the likely favorites in here and she should be a good price.

Best Bet: Race 9 - #3 Secret Oath 8/1 - The way I see the race unfolding I expect at least an honest pace with Idiomatic and Nest knocking heads a bit. I don't expect it to be that fast but honest enough. Looking through the rest of the field I think Secret Oath is the only alternative who's best punch gives her much of a chance. Hoping she makes first run and gets by those two and then will just be begging for the wire. It wasn't that long ago that she nearly held off Clariere in the Apple Blossom and while I don't think Tyler stopped riding or did anything wrong I got the sense that he thought she had the race won. I imagine that would not be the case if she makes the front today.

Best Value: Race 8 - #8 Lullaby Land 8/1 - If you think Anatolian is the horse to beat in here, and I do, I think you want to give a long look to this runner. When they met three back she was grabbed right away to get way behind a very slow pace going todays distance. I know she doesn't possess any early speed but I thought that was a bit excessive. She then made a huge middle move while Anatolian just sat a perfect pocket trip, let her pass and then finished up a bit better. Maybe that one is just really improving for Mike Maker but I think at the expected odds its worth a shot. I also think its a good sign Jose is back aboard today.

And of course Race 8 is OFF now. I toyed with the thought of going with Daily Grind in race 6…which was my original pick. But I think Dahoss is right that the race is loaded so I’m going to take a shot instead with #7 Going the Distance in race 10. Good luck all.

Posting Saturday picks as well.

Race 10 - #2 Matareya 6/1.
Race 12 - #2 Arcangelo 5/2.

With race 8 off ill pivot to race 6 #1 Air of Defiance. Loaded field and don't be much of a price but I think is getting a little ignored in the early getting sue to the rail draw which doesn't concern me as much as others in dirt sprints at the Spa.

Maybe I should have gone Secret Oath over Clairiere…but definitely did not expect Idiomatic to get loose on the lead and never even get contested.

I liked Idiomatic too but downgraded due to Geroux/Cox 3/39 .20 ROI on Dirt last 365. Pratt has been his go to guy... Oh well

Irad is such a thorn in my side

I just really screwed up the pace for that race. Ah well. It happens.

Forgot to mention this was Graded Stakes stats

Wagered: $256.00
Returned: $268.70

Anthracite was dreadful while Jumbly ran a very mediocre third. Yesterday Air of Defiance had a brutal trip breaking awfully from the rail (insert foot in mouth) closing well to get up for second paying a generous 5.10 to place. Would love to have seen if Secret Oath could've gotten the job done if Irad didnt decide the gameplan was to let Idiomatic get loose on the lead. Maybe Idiomatic was just best but that seemed insane to me and Secret Oath got back to a much better racing paying 7.20 to place. Still finalizing some stuff will be back with todays picks later.

Heading into Saturday. My picks were awful yesterday.

$256.00 wagered
$263.70 returned

I’m going to switch things up. Sticking with Arcangelo but I’m going to change my first bet (Matareya) and instead go Race 8 - #2 Monet Never 6/1.

Best Bet: Race 11 - #1 Soldier Rising 5/1 - I know he's not exactly the winning type but he ran well in this race last year and this years edition looks pretty weak. I thought the prep was an easy toss as he was all types of impacted by the Rebels Romance incident. The rest of his form stacks up with any of these and I think he's found the right spot today.

Best Value: Race 10 - #3 Maryquitecontrary 15/1 - More of a place play as I think Echo Zulu is likely going to win but I think there are some things to like with her. The last was too short as she's a bigger long striding type that takes some time to wind up. She appears to have gone a bit off form but I think its more muddled up. I don't understand why there isn't a new jockey today but I suppose that will boost the price. Needs things to really heat up but I think will be gobbling up ground late so if they're all gasping for breath late maybe she has an outsiders chance and I feel is at least the right one to try to get into cold exactas or tris.

Wanted to make a play in the Travers and maybe there's some value getting against Forte, at least in my opinion, but I can't really decide if I prefer Arcangelo or Mage and just hoping one of the two gets it done for all of my multis.

Good luck.

Arcangelo saved my day with a big win in the Travers.

$264.00 wagered
$276.40 returned