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-   -   BEYER: Defining Zenyatta's historical role (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=38617)

Merlinsky 10-01-2010 12:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 701656)
Gorgeous is one of the forgotten truly great horses of the last 25 years or so.

When she was on her game, there aren't many fillies/mares that would have beaten her.

During Book 1 of the Keeneland sale I kept seeing her name pop up. Her genes were well represented.

The Indomitable DrugS 10-01-2010 05:06 AM

The new leader in the clubhouse .....

Michael Manoj Tolaney (whoever he is)

Quote:

Look, Andy Beyer is sour grapes because he knows my good friend, Ashok Sinha called his bluff and disproved his precious Beyer rating system way back in 2002. The individuals who pro-rate the roughly 8 point discrepancy are printing money, ...esp. in the P-6 sequence where overlays are routine at Eastern tracks. Case in point: Sarava's 99 Beyer prior to the Belmont was in actuality a 107, that's correct, must adjust figures of horses going from G3 to G1 because serious flaw in Beyer's methodology is he penalizes class and over-rewards sprinters/raw final times. Finally, he never accounts for runaway winners at lower levels, eg - Grade 3, where Sarava was a 12-length runaway winner in his prep for the 2002 Belmont. I am glad Beyer does not have a clue............. we cashed a $142 horse in the 2002 Belmont, and the exacta w 16-1 MDO as an added bonus or ancillary benefit. How does my downgrading Andy Beyer to junk bond status........... relate to Zenyatta, well it doesn't.................... but the bottom line is the guy is routinely wrong more than he is right. Where is his MBA, PhD or degree in advanced Math?? What qualifies or his rating system as gospel? Hmmm, exactly. I freely admit I am a Zenyatta Fan, even though I needed Gio Ponti for a P5 in last year's Breeders Cup Classic, i had to play Gio Ponti because as usual, Beyer lowballed his figures. Zenyatta has never lost, can Andy Beyer say the same? I think NOT. -MT

Danzig 10-01-2010 06:40 AM

i wonder if this guy keeps track of his losses?

dalakhani 10-01-2010 07:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antitrust32 (Post 701317)
& the best PR machine since the 70's??? LOL thats why so many non racing fans are following Z's career :zz:

No horse in the past decade holds a candle to Smarty Jones as far as PR goes.

Agreed

johnny pinwheel 10-01-2010 08:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tiggerv (Post 701414)
Why publish a generic "Zenyatta is overrated" article the day after Rachel retires? How about writing about the historical place of the retired horse instead of the horse with 2 races left? I know that Beyer is in LA and Z runs this weekend, but save the Zenyatta historical role article until after she finishes racing.

amen. no, hes not biased either after his numbers said zenyatta was slow last year....oh wait a minute, then she won the BC classic. must be the surface...oh, the horse won two graded stakes on the dirt too.....that doesn't count. it almost makes me want her to win at churchill. just to read what kind of garbage makes her not "historical" after that....what a joke of an article....did it even have a point? i noticed the trend that these articles usually come up after his numbers get tanked or he has to justify them. if she was not one of the best horses of the last decade.....who is andy? i thought you followed this game...lol....lol,

Indian Charlie 10-01-2010 08:18 AM

Expecting rational discourse from Zenyattards is much like expecting an intelligent, non emotional conversation between a rational human being and a religious zealot who reacts to every undeniable fact with great outbursts of illogic and defensiveness.

Thunder Gulch 10-01-2010 09:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS (Post 701727)
The new leader in the clubhouse .....

Michael Manoj Tolaney (whoever he is)

That is rich.:tro::rolleyes:

Dahoss 10-01-2010 10:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel (Post 701742)
amen. no, hes not biased either after his numbers said zenyatta was slow last year....oh wait a minute, then she won the BC classic. must be the surface...oh, the horse won two graded stakes on the dirt too.....that doesn't count. it almost makes me want her to win at churchill. just to read what kind of garbage makes her not "historical" after that....what a joke of an article....did it even have a point? i noticed the trend that these articles usually come up after his numbers get tanked or he has to justify them. if she was not one of the best horses of the last decade.....who is andy? i thought you followed this game...lol....lol,

Do you ever have a point with your drivel?

goingtothewhip 10-01-2010 11:01 AM

Quote:

Probably she isn't;dirt and synthetics are so different that few horses are top-class on both. (The 0-for-43 record of horses making the transition from dirt to synthetics in the Santa Anita Breeders Cups laid to rest the cliché that "a good horse can run on anything."
Just off the top of my head: Looking at Lucky, I Want Revenge, Colonel John?
A few "slow" synthetic based horses that seemed to do alright making the transition to dirt.

Dahoss 10-01-2010 11:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by goingtothewhip (Post 701784)
Just off the top of my head: Looking at Lucky, I Want Revenge, Colonel John?
A few "slow" synthetic based horses that seemed to do alright making the transition to dirt.

What does your response have to do with the passage you quoted?

goingtothewhip 10-01-2010 11:20 AM

Quote:

dirt and synthetics are so different that few horses are top-class on both. (The 0-for-43 record of horses making the transition from dirt to synthetics in the Santa Anita Breeders Cups laid to rest the cliché that "a good horse can run on anything."
Those are 3 obvious examples of horses that are top class on both surfaces. If the surface is so divergent why were they able to transfer their form to dirt?

Dahoss 10-01-2010 11:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by goingtothewhip (Post 701797)
Those are 3 obvious examples of horses that are top class on both surfaces. If the surface is so divergent why were they able to transfer their form to dirt?

Colonel John wasn't top class on any surface and I'm not sure I Want Revenge was either. He was better on dirt, but top class? It's debateable.

Do you really think the surfaces aren't different in the way they play and how horses handle them?

goingtothewhip 10-01-2010 11:50 AM

Of course not, but to say that a horse isn't going to be as "potent" on dirt because of a breeder's cup stat that has dirt horses going 0-43 on synth is a very weak argument.

More to your point regarding surfaces, I think many are failing to realize that all of the synthetic surfaces (Hwood, Santa Anita, Del Mar) are extremely different in the way they play as they are different brand surfaces (cushion, pro ride hybrid, and polytrack respectively). To lump them all together under the synthetic moniker is misleading in many ways.

Kasept 10-01-2010 12:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by goingtothewhip (Post 701814)
More to your point regarding surfaces, I think many are failing to realize that all of the synthetic surfaces (Hwood, Santa Anita, Del Mar) are extremely different in the way they play as they are different brand surfaces (cushion, pro ride hybrid, and polytrack respectively). To lump them all together under the synthetic moniker is misleading in many ways.

Misleading? Who cares which brand of synthetic track any of them are? It's all moot since they're all going to be forgotten. The underlying point is that the entire synthetic track disaster is going to ultimately be regarded as a footnote in racing history, the way Tartan Track is for instance. That is at the core of Beyer's piece.

People that want to elevate results produced on synthetic tracks to the level of the previous century of racing history refuse to acknowledge certain facts. One is that a generation of horses bred to perform on racing's irrefutable main track surface were denied an opportunity to make their marks if they were forced to spend their career on synthetic surfaces (of any brand).

The second is that horses with previously established levels of achievement (or excellence) on racing's principal main track surface, were forced unrealistically and unfairly to try to succeed in two irrelevant Breeders' Cups held on the patchwork synthetic surface at Santa Anita in 2008-09.

And the central theme, and frustration, of those questioning Zenyatta's possible historical greatness, is that her connections denied her very real, plausible and myriad opportunities available to provide definition by irrefutable standards of how good she is/was... And as a frank aside, the fact that wild-eyed fans of hers cannot discern that nuance is what has now made her so unpalatable to those that legitimately question her achievements beyond the core performances that lend credence to how good a horse she has been.

miraja2 10-01-2010 12:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 701821)
Misleading? Who cares which brand of synthetic track any of them are? It's all moot since they're all going to be forgotten. The underlying point is that the entire synthetic track disaster is going to ultimately be regarded as a footnote in racing history, the way Tartan Track is for instance. That is at the core of Beyer's piece.

People that want to elevate results produced on synthetic tracks to the level of the previous century of racing history refuse to acknowledge certain facts. One is that a generation of horses bred to perform on racing's irrefutable main track surface were denied an opportunity to make their marks if they were forced to spend their career on synthetic surfaces (of any brand).

The second is that horses with previously established levels of achievement (or excellence) on racing's principal main track surface, were forced unrealistically and unfairly to try to succeed in two irrelevant Breeders' Cups held on the patchwork synthetic surface at Santa Anita in 2008-09.

And the central theme, and frustration, of those questioning Zenyatta's possible historical greatness, is that her connections denied her very real, plausible and myriad opportunities available to provide definition by irrefutable standards of how good she is/was... And as a frank aside, the fact that wild-eyed fans of hers cannot discern that nuance is what has now made her so unpalatable to those that legitimately question her achievements beyond the core performances that lend credence to how good a horse she has been.

:tro:

slotdirt 10-01-2010 01:05 PM

This thread needed that.

goingtothewhip 10-01-2010 01:08 PM

Feel the rage. LoL.

People that are wagering on the tracks in question probably care what type of synthetic surfaces they are dealing with. Thus my comment on using the generic term synthetic being misleading.

Sorry the fans and lack of a rigorous campaign has left a nasty taste on your palate, but the fact is neither have any bearing on how good she is. To let those factors sully your opinion of a horse seems kind of silly.

NTamm1215 10-01-2010 01:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by goingtothewhip (Post 701834)
Sorry the fans and lack of a rigorous campaign has left a nasty taste on your palate, but the fact is neither have any bearing on how good she is. To let those factors sully your opinion of a horse seems kind of silly.

How can we really have a gauge of how good she is historically, which is hardly an exercise I want to undertake, when she's had such a carefully planned, cookie-cutter campaign? Greatness needs to be defined by taking on the best, the most significant tests and proving yourself in those scenarios. A final campaign with 5 exhibitions and the Breeders' Cup Classic was hardly what I was looking for from her this year.

GPK 10-01-2010 01:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215 (Post 701835)
How can we really have a gauge of how good she is historically, which is hardly an exercise I want to undertake, when she's had such a carefully planned, cookie-cutter campaign? Greatness needs to be defined by taking on the best, the most significant tests and proving yourself in those scenarios. A final campaign with 5 exhibitions and the Breeders' Cup Classic was hardly what anyone with half a brain and a true love of the sport was looking for from her this year.

FTFY Nick

goingtothewhip 10-01-2010 01:25 PM

Quote:

How can we really have a gauge of how good she is historically, which is hardly an exercise I want to undertake, when she's had such a carefully planned, cookie-cutter campaign? Greatness needs to be defined by taking on the best, the most significant tests and proving yourself in those scenarios. A final campaign with 5 exhibitions and the Breeders' Cup Classic was hardly what I was looking for from her this year.
i can't really argue with any of that (pre fix).

I can understand questioning her place in history, but it seems the vast majority of opinions are now polarized. She is the best ever or a mere curiosity. I'm going to hold off till she is done before writing what i think in my diary.


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