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-   -   3/8 (FG): LA Derby Day (6 Stakes) (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=20591)

Scav 03-04-2008 04:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Why are you conceding the race to Grasshopper? I'm not saying he isn't the likeliest winner but what if he doesn't get the same perfect trip he got last time?

Re: Grasshopper, Because I think he will improve 2nd off the layoff so I am expecting a better performance, and he is essentially facing the same horses, except Magna, who won't win.

Re: Daytona, what do you mean too good to be true, and Hooves, Solis will single-handily get this horse beat. Look at what he did when Solis DID ride him, completely different running style and horse. The horse I like in this race is Proudinsky. I don't think 1 mile is his game and he should appreciate the return to 9 furlongs, plus the addition of Gomez. Plus, do you really think they are going to let Daytona go again, I really think SOMEONE is going to go with him, especially because Solis will try and put a hammer lock on him...

And for the record, I am not hammering Solis, he has improved dramatically recently and has been riding well, I just don't think his style fits this horse.

VOL JACK 03-04-2008 10:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
It's going to take all the Pletcher magic in the world to get him home my friend, IMO.

In case you haven't noticed Todd has seem to have lost his magic wand.

Pedigree Ann 03-05-2008 04:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
He - like the great Dynever - vanished after his Dubai race. They claimed both he and his undefeated at the time Group 1 stablemate Gold For Sale were both drugged in that race.

However, that quote came from Ian Jory - who trained both SB and GFS - so it should be taken with a grain of salt.

Jory had lab tests done on the horses and the results came back positive, I forget for what tranquilizer. Tests were shown to the press and all. But since the tests weren't ordered by the officials of the track in Dubai, no official action could be taken, or so the track authorities said. I doubt they cared to do much, since the winner was the Sheikh's horse and an investigation would have cast doubt on his accomplishment.

ateamstupid 03-05-2008 04:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav
Daytona will be 7/5 or 6/5 in this race. Proudinsky should take some cash

I am definitely not a ML guy but i will give it a shot

1: Buffalo Man - 10/1
2: Yate's Black Cat - 15/1
3: Brilliant - 6/1
4: Jazz Quest - 10/1
5: Elusive Fort - 15/1
6: French Beret - 20/1
7: Fracas - 12/1
8: Proudinsky - 4/1
9: Twilight Meteor - 12/1
10: Daytona - 7/5

If I can get 12/1 on Fracas.. Shields are down Scotty, FIIIRE.. I wouldn't count Brilliant out either. Horse is a big-timer when he's right. Daytona's imposing, but not unbeatable. I think he's the most likely of the four favorites to lose, albeit not by much.

Danzig 03-05-2008 06:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
He or Proudinsky are the logical other horses. Not a very compelling field that's for sure.

that's my pick...

miraja2 03-05-2008 07:21 AM

What do you guys think the odds will be on Circular Quay in the NOH come post time?

I hope I don't get suckered into betting on him because the odds seem favorable....but I probably will.

I frequently seem to find reasons to play this horse when no person in their right mind would do so.

swedejxn 03-05-2008 01:57 PM

UP to 2 inches of rain expected thursday night and showery and gray friday..
expect main track to be ok ... but turf could be squishy...

brianwspencer 03-05-2008 02:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2
What do you guys think the odds will be on Circular Quay in the NOH come post time?

I hope I don't get suckered into betting on him because the odds seem favorable....but I probably will.

I frequently seem to find reasons to play this horse when no person in their right mind would do so.

Maybe I'll be way off, but with the money Grasshopper should take, with the way Silver Lord has been performing on the track, Magna Graduate and Brass Hat will take some cash -- I would (or should, I should say) think you'll get double digits. If I were making a line, I'd probably end up pegging him around, what, maybe 12/1?

Er, EDIT: I just made one, and came up with 9-1. That's just me though.

Danzig 03-05-2008 05:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by swedejxn
UP to 2 inches of rain expected thursday night and showery and gray friday..
expect main track to be ok ... but turf could be squishy...

and i said who my pick was....
but turf surface is so important. might be better to wait til race day to see how the track is faring, and who is best suited to the ground.

wac 03-05-2008 08:36 PM

I think if there is some give in the T Brilliant may be playable here. I worry about coming bck from the layoff but for some odd reason i think that the horse likes some give in the T I just dont know how the trainer does with horses off the layoff.

ateamstupid 03-06-2008 12:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wac
I think if there is some give in the T Brilliant may be playable here. I worry about coming bck from the layoff but for some odd reason i think that the horse likes some give in the T I just dont know how the trainer does with horses off the layoff.

For some odd reason? The two best races of his career came on wet turf courses..

westcoastinvader 03-06-2008 02:30 AM

Surprised that no one here has mentioned Majestic Warrior comes out of George Steinbrenner's barn.

Not that it makes a difference.

2Hot4TV 03-06-2008 07:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach Pants
I think it would be foolish to try and beat Daytona just off what you think Alex Solis is going to do. He's actually not riding that bad at the moment and this horse is on form and looks like he'll be alone on the lead again.

Solis has forgotten how to ride on the front end and will be over weight from the Depends he will have to wear if he does try to run out front.

swedejxn 03-07-2008 07:00 AM

Got about 3/4 inch overnight.... only a little more expected today...
could be "good" by racetime.... doubt it makes it to firm...

jpops757 03-07-2008 09:56 AM

King of the Roxy has no Curlin, or Hard Spun in his race and at 6/1 m/l looks like the bet in the 4th. Euroears has looked good but this is probaly P;etchers best bet and longest odd horse of the day.

jpops757 03-07-2008 09:56 AM

King of the Roxy has no Curlin, or Hard Spun in his race and at 6/1 m/l looks like the bet in the 4th. Euroears has looked good but this is probaly P;etchers best bet and longest odd horse of the day.

Scav 03-07-2008 11:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Why are you conceding the race to Grasshopper? I'm not saying he isn't the likeliest winner but what if he doesn't get the same perfect trip he got last time?

I am NOW off Grasshopper. You are right about his trip last time, and the fact is that there are multiple horses in this race that are technically faster then him (TG wise).

Brass Hat and Silver Lord are the plays IMO.

blackthroatedwind 03-07-2008 11:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav
I am NOW off Grasshopper. You are right about his trip last time, and the fact is that there are multiple horses in this race that are technically faster then him (TG wise).

Brass Hat and Silver Lord are the plays IMO.


I guess he can't lose now.

The problem with the race is the lack of speed, which will obviously help Silver Lord, and hurt Brass Hat, but also it works in Grasshopper's favor as he can stalk Silver Lord and he is a solid grinder type.

Honestly, and maybe I just have no feel for these races, I couldn't make a solid case for anyone ouside the favorites in the four stakes I looked at.

With the torrential rain in NY, it was absolutely pouring tonight, tomorrow feels like pretty much a pass for me.


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