Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Street Sense worked out a perfect trip in the Derby, so if he should run slightly worse in the Preakness it won't be because he bounced, it will almost certainly be due to circumstances. Hard Spun, while setting a strong pace that killed the roaches chasing him, was still able to dictate the pace in the Derby. Should the speed horses in the Preakness force him into the role of a chaser, or worse - embroil him in a speed duel, he will also most likely run worse due to race dynamics. Both situations could very possibly lead to what a simplistic analysis will call a bounce or regression when in fact it will be a very simple result of differing race dynamics.

This is very much the problem with the bounce excuse. Since the sheets don't take pace into account they explain performances incorrectly. While I am willing to admit regression is possible, though highly unlikely, far more horses that are considered to have " bounced " actually got favorable setups one day and then unfavorable ones the next.

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I agree that the bounce excuse gets used far too often by sheets guys, but I also think that if Street Sense or Hard Spun doesn't run well, it may have to do with fitness, not just race dynamics.

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Do you really think Street Sense has little foundation?

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Yeah I see your point and it's a fair one since Nafzger has always said he was pointing to the Derby. Trust me, there were two times to bet Street Sense, BC Juvy and the Derby. I did, so of course I am going to defend him. Will I bet him Saturday, nope. Not at that price, but I also think he's the best horse and I hope he wins so I can see a chance at a TC at Belmont.

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Yeah I don't know if I've ever had a better time at the track, while losing as I did for Funny Cide's Belmont.

Originally Posted by Danzig

but when IS the last time street sense ran a bad race? pre-juvy i would think.

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Depends on your definition of "bad." His Blue Grass race may not have been bad, but it certainly wasn't the kind of effort that would win the Preakness. Or are you throwing that out because of polytrack?

He really has never run any "bad" races, but he's only run two great races. The rest were good, but there are plenty of horses in this race who can run "good" races.

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Depends on your definition of "bad." His Blue Grass race may not have been bad, but it certainly wasn't the kind of effort that would win the Preakness. Or are you throwing that out because of polytrack?

He really has never run any "bad" races, but he's only run two great races. The rest were good, but there are plenty of horses in this race who can run "good" races.

Originally Posted by Kasept

I would characterize the effort breaking the track record at Tampa Bay off a 100+ day layoff as a rather great race..

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

your just haten...lol..you dont like anyone then you like some ..but not really...huh..you have the blazing saddles frontier double speak down..sence could have won the blugrass is was clear to me borel and nafzger didnt want to go for it ..in the str he was taken up and coasted out.. in the derby he rolled .. he does the same vs these ..imo