Thats close enough.

I have Spun and Hunter as futures. Not that bad, 1 out of 2

1929 #20 won

Nobody's ever won from post 19 I don't believe.

Fair enough, those are valid concerns.
But I have not seen the people claiming he is so good that he can win from anywhere.

correct

So what does Kaplan do #10 or #11

THen Jaime goes for the other?

I personally feel the top earners should pick their post in order, horses like Teaufflesberg and I'mawildandcrazyguy just got in by the skin of their teeth, accordingly they should have the last two positions. I want to see a good race, not one with the best contenders against the 8 ball before the gate even springs.:mad:

I'm not going to single Curlin or anything, but he's done all that he can do and is expected to do. If the fields were weak, he CRUSHED the weak fields by a combined 26 lengths or something.... he's going to run his hardest, I don't think a little interference is going to ruin his race. Even Barbaro stumbled and got bumped and won by 8 or whatever it was.

How is this post draw any different than any other post draw? Lots of horses get hung in miserable positions in major stakes races.

the number of horses is the difference. define miserable post position. usually that means nothing more than 10, 12, or 14 tops.

In the derby 1 and 20 in particular are beyond miserable.

I would suggest having an outside post in a 9f race at Gulfstream is probably just as crappy as having post 20 in the Kentucky Derby.

Here is some more data on the inside post, I'm not sure when the track was reconfigured to squeeze the inside, maybe someone here knows the exact year but to answer a question...the starting gate was installed at CD in 1930, since then 8 horses have won the Derby from pp#1...they are:
War Admiral (1937)
Lawrin (1938)
Gallahadion (1940)
Citation (1948)
Hill Gale (1952)
Needles (1956)
Chateaugay (1963)
Ferdinand (1986)
I'm pretty sure that I read that the change was made after Chateaugay as it was news when Ferdinand won...pretty sure they said he was the first...and last.

I think you're correct, in this era the 1 post is considered a death sentence.

One thing about the post position is a horse like Closing Argument ran well from the 19 hole I think, either way, it was way the hell out there, and it gutted him for good but it is possible for them to run well from the outside

18

He was actually the best horse in the race that day... shame he didn't get the win to prove it.

whatever it was, it was no man's land. All the horses I am considering got good draws so essentially, I will be broke after the Derby

He ran the best race, I wouldn't say he was the best horse. He was pressing the pace, and even led at the 8th pole for a brief moment.

Sorta what I meant... best horse on that day, at least.