He was slower than molasses tim taht day. he earned a nothing fig, and the trainer is ice cold going 4-40 so far this year. No way, no how.

No Chance. Didn't you read what Oracle said. :eek: I know somebody that thinks he could run a big race too. It wouldn't shock me if he got a piece of it.

Sure, no chance. Just like the $180 horse in a Grade I at Churchill.

Its a horse race anything can happen. Rock Lobster is not out of this by any means. Showing Up is a nice horse but never been on the weeds. Frenchys Cat, Kip de ville and Go Between are hardly world beaters.

I'm confused. Are you suggesting because Seek Gold upset the Foster that Rock Lobster can win the race Saturday?

Don't get me wrong, I have only begun looking at the pps for Saturday's race, and there is no doubt that Rock Lobster is an outsider. However, I will look a lot harder before throwing him out. Mike is right about one thing....he will have to improve a LOT to be competitive here.

I love Showing Up but any horse can win this race. They are all either untested on the grass or just not that impressive on the grass. My reasoning is that Showing Up would win this race against this field 1 out of every 2-3 times it is run, so I think 2-1 or better is a good bet.

I am suggesting that if a 90-1 shot can win a grade 1 against some of the top horses in the world, a horse like Rock Lobster could beat a field of unprove or unimpressive three year olds on the grass. Rock Lobster wouldn't be nearly as big a shock as Seek Gold.

Yeah I mean other than the fact that hes slow, stepping way up, and the trainer is ice cold, I see a whole lot I like about him!!! Oh, and did I mention that since so many people love to bet closers who finish like he did last time because they mistake a slow last part of the race that a horse clunked into to(confusing that close with talent) and that the trainer is 4-40 but still gets overbet off a race he won 8 years ago that he will be no value either/ gee thats just what I have been looking for!!!!!!!!!! A slow horse stepping up in class who will be overbet and is trained by a cold trainer. Sounds good to me!!!!

I just read who is trainer is. Now I see why you don't like him. Let me guess, you like Dutrows horse.

Well, I am not inclined to like Rock Lobster, but the second horse in his last race did come back with a big win. And, honestly, there aren't any proven killers in this field. It's not like Stream Cat and Go Between are monsters, Showing Up is both distance challenged and a major if on the turf, Outperformance had a very good trip in a race that collapsed last out, Roman Dynesty is a guess ( albeit an educated one ), Lewis Michael is another turf unknown ( though I would take him at his odds over Showing Up at his ridiculously deflated odds ). However, all those horses are more likely to win than Rock Lobster, along with Can't Beat It, who may be the best longshot in the race ( though Eddie Castro doesn't help ).

The problem with a horse like Rock Lobster is that not only does he have to improve substantially, but a whole slew of horses also have to fail to show up. The odds of both of those things happening are far greater than his odds will reflect.

Maybe we should key him in the fourth slot in the super.

Are you disputing my statistics? Wanna make a wager on that?

I wouldn't dispute anything you say, but Rock Lobster wins races. That said, betting against Showing Up in this race is like throwing money away. Dutrows $500K purchase won't even be competitive. Cornelio and Tagg are in for a nice paycheck this weekend. A future turf star will be born this weekend.

I agree, Rock Lobster wont be half the shocker that Seek Gold was. While I didnt think it was all that an impressive Stephen Foster, Seek Gold was a complete surprise and I heard no mention from anyone on here in any way.

Mike Dickinson is due for a win like this and this horse is more than capable. Like I said, there are no world beaters in here, outside of Showing Up, a 3rd tier of turf horses who if they ran this race 10 times, there would be perhaps 8 or 9 different winners.

I wasn't really following Barbaro that closely back then, but I was told Rock Lobster ran against him 1x and that he is a pretty good horse.

Rock Lobster was fourth, more than ten lengths behind Barbaro, with a maiden finishing third. That maiden bombed in a MSW on the turf Belmont Day in his next turf start.

He was 4th beaten 11 lengths in the Laurel Futurity that Barbaro won. He then shipped to Cali to run in a stakes race at SA that was rained off. You can't count that race against him. In his last race, the Woodlawn, he beat a very moderate group in a slow figure effort. The third place horse that day Unbridled behaviour is also entered in here. He's a closing horse that likes grass. Being by Mt Livermore I question his wanting to go any farther than he has. A useful horse no doubt.

Lewis Michael is far from being an unknown on the turf, he was like 5 or 6 lengths back from the monster Barbaro, and that was only his 3rd or 4th race....

Thanks, I don't know what the hell I was looking at. He looks like he could be a better turf horse than dirt horse who has improved recently.

Barbaro is not in here, nothing close to him is. I dont see the point of comparing how badly Rock Lobster got beat by Barbaro with how he shapes up in this spot. I think Lewis Michael is a better dirt horse. Showing Up is totally unknown on this surface and will be a very sort price versus his actual chance to win this. Stream Cat is also a closer, so why is this not held against him? Neither Kip De Ville or Go Between are significantly faster than Rock Lobster, the pace scenario and what kind of trip everybody gets will easily nullify any "advantage" you think they have over Lobster.

I think its a great spot to step out of the box on. I hope for those who bet Kip Deville, that he runs better than Love of Money did in the Stephen Foster. That was pretty awful.

Tim I completely don't understand what you just said. Stream Cat is not just a closer, hes a closer who is graded stakes winner with good figs. Are you really comparing him to Rock Lobster?
And what does love and Money have to do with deville? Am I missing something?