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-   -   Tips/Thoughts on Breeders' Cup tickets this year? (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=24969)

philcski 10-25-2008 10:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man
It seems we need to rehash this. Does FT WIN if she makes the 1st move with WaW and Visit? Does FT win if she moves when SH did? Probably not as the 'pace' at that point was pretty hot.

My point here is not that WaW is better than the winner (in general) but rather that if she gets a decent trip, in this case, doesn't move EARLY, she's in position to withstand the closers. By waiting and forcing the OTHER closers (other than Visit) to move with/before her she dulls their kick. A more patient jock gets her this trip.

Not putting this on you, but why is this so difficult to understand? The winner is a very nice horse, certainly the best in the race (though before yesterday, her ability to get 10F was in question) but she also got a very nice trip, having the benefit of running AFTER everyone else. This was a 'flow' race: moving too soon spelled doom for WaW and Visit and, to a lesser extent SH. Would think that this would be evident to some others as well.

No question- you never know till they do it, like the Derby. Although I think I laid out reasonable arguments pre-race why 10F was certainly within her scope...

Visit is tough to use in the argument because I'm pretty sure she isn't half the filly of WaW or FT. I think WaW runs a clear second if she waits a little longer. FT ran the final 4F in a fantastic <:46 flat and the final quarter in :22 4/5. We've been watching Wait a While for a long time- we know for SURE she cannot do that, if she had moved at the same time as FT. It's difficult to me to understand why anyone would say Wait a While was much the best in a race after we know so much about her?

Leparoux gave her a masterful ride, no doubt, and rode her like he had a ton of horse.

the_fat_man 10-25-2008 10:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski
No question- you never know till they do it, like the Derby. Although I think I laid out reasonable arguments pre-race why 10F was certainly within her scope...

Visit is tough to use in the argument because I'm pretty sure she isn't half the filly of WaW or FT. I think WaW runs a clear second if she waits a little longer. FT ran the final 4F in a fantastic <:46 flat and the final quarter in :22 4/5. We've been watching Wait a While for a long time- we know for SURE she cannot do that, if she had moved at the same time as FT.

Leparoux gave her a masterful ride, no doubt, and rode her like he had a ton of horse.

While her close was certainly impressive, I would argue that Visits 3F burst from 6 to 9F was even more impressive. Look at the chart, when Visit, WaW and SH are moving into the pace, FT is taking a breather.

No doubt there aren't many fillies that can finish with her. But if she had to run EARLIER, like the others did, she wouldn't have had that strong a late burst.

Once again, this isn't about WaW being better than her but more about WaW losing an opportunity (and the winner getting the better trip).

philcski 10-25-2008 10:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man
While her close was certainly impressive, I would argue that Visits 3F burst from 6 to 9F was even more impressive. Look at the chart, when Visit, WaW and SH are moving into the pace, FT is taking a breather.

No doubt there aren't many fillies that can finish with her. But if she had to run EARLIER, like the others did, she wouldn't have had that strong a late burst.

Once again, this isn't about WaW being better than her but more about WaW losing an opportunity (and the winner getting the better trip).

I thought she was the winner by open lengths at that point.

Kasept 10-25-2008 10:55 AM

Cost of Freedom SCR'd from the Sprint..
 
Vet scratch...

SCUDSBROTHER 10-25-2008 11:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept
Vet scratch...

I'm all out of tears. Can only cry so much.

philcski 10-25-2008 11:38 AM

Vet scratch, eh?

I'll refrain from speaking my mind on this one.

SCUDSBROTHER 10-25-2008 11:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski
Vet scratch, eh?

I'll refrain from speaking my mind on this one.

"It's a 50k claimer...But I turn my wrench....baby 1..2...3....Look, look e here... it's a Breeders Cup Winner!!"

Pedigree Ann 10-25-2008 12:10 PM

Euros yesterday

Sprint - no Euros, although Ventura started her career over there. Lady Sprinter is a South American

Li'l Babes on Grass -April Pride, placed in a G3
Beyond our Reach, placed in a G1 on soft ground
Heart Shaped, won a listed race on good (firmish) ground,
2 lengths 4th in G2, 4 lengths 4th in a G1 on good

Li'l Babes -Pursuit of Glory, 3rd in a 6f G1 on good, won on Poly for maiden

Turf (10f) - Visit, never run past 8f, longest win at 7f
Halfway to Heaven -most work at 8f, won 10f G1 at Goodwood
Folk Opera - has run well up to 14f by leading on slow pace

Classic - Cocoa Beach is a Chilean who ran in Dubai, not a EUro

So that makes 7 Euros, but only two whose failure was unexpected - Pursuit of Glory, who was hung outside in the 11 post, and Halfway to Heaven, a 3yo facing her elders, but not for the first time.

philcski 10-25-2008 12:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER
"It's a 50k claimer...But I turn my wrench....baby 1..2...3....Look, look e here... it's a Breeders Cup Winner!!"

Pretty much my thoughts.

ELA 10-25-2008 12:56 PM

Migliore and Desert Code Does it!!!
 
You can't help but root for the Mig!!! I don't care who you bet on. His first ever Breeders Cup victory -- and this guy deserves it!!!

Wow! I am really happy for Richard. Congratulations to one of the true good guys of this sport.

Eric

SCUDSBROTHER 10-25-2008 01:00 PM

F It...do A Dance. That's the reason a lot of people hate the Breeders Cup. Horse never has beaten this quality stuff. CASH BON FIRE, BUT WE'RE HAPPY MIG IS HAPPY...Woo Hoo!!

hoovesupsideyourhead 10-25-2008 01:05 PM

was a hooves value play.:D :$:

10 pnt move up 10-25-2008 01:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ELA
You can't help but root for the Mig!!! I don't care who you bet on. His first ever Breeders Cup victory -- and this guy deserves it!!!

Wow! I am really happy for Richard. Congratulations to one of the true good guys of this sport.

Eric

with 14 breeders cup races every year alot of guys will have breeders cup wins. good for him, but some of these races just cant be compared to the first 23 years of the BC.

AeWingnut 10-25-2008 01:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead
was a hooves value play.:D :$:


horse had an excellent record at the distance. 2nd race after a layoff. + Mig

got 1st and 3rd on the exacta but had a $2 saver on him :o

philcski 10-25-2008 01:13 PM

I like the Mig a lot but my big pick 4 play just went up in smoke despite going 10 deep. How am I supposed to be happy right now???

Pedigree Ann 10-25-2008 01:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AeWingnut
horse had an excellent record at the distance. 2nd race after a layoff. + Mig

got 1st and 3rd on the exacta but had a $2 saver on him :o

Yeah, Storm Treasure was my closer, had $2 across the board on him; now I wish I had guts and had made it $5.

AeWingnut 10-25-2008 01:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann
Yeah, Storm Treasure was my closer, had $2 across the board on him; now I wish I had guts and had made it $5.


I always have regrets on a day like today and yesterday

CSC 10-25-2008 01:57 PM

Am I the only one sceptical of the time, they did 6 furlongs in 1:05 and change and the 1st 1/4 was in the 20's.

10 pnt move up 10-25-2008 01:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC
Am I the only one sceptical of the final time, they did 6 furlongs in 1:05 and change and the 1st 1/4 was in the 20's.

?

it can happen on that course


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