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-   -   CONTEST ENTRIES: SA Carryover (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9084)

Pedigree Ann 01-24-2007 06:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER
Can't Believe They Are Even Looking This Hard At It.Corey Was On Dead Horse.

Yeah, she was dead after she got shoved aside and then clipped heels with the horse who did the shoving. Jock wrapped up on her after that. Look at the head-on replay and you can see it happen. The 7 wasn't moving forward as fast as the 6, but that doesn't mean she couldn't have gotten up for second or third with a clean trip.

She doesn't clip heels and MAYBE the winner stays up, but rules concerning the safety of horse and rider have to be enforced.

skippy3481 01-24-2007 06:40 PM

curt what horses are you still alive too.

2MinsToPost 01-24-2007 06:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by skippy3481
curt what horses are you still alive too.

8th - 6 Closet Trader, 7 Phantom Gray, 11 Highly Gallant, 12 Voracious, 13 Inahurry

for 5 of 6

need the 11 or 12 for a small $2 Pick 3 real money

skippy3481 01-24-2007 06:43 PM

8/11/12/14 here

hoovesupsideyourhead 01-24-2007 06:47 PM

argggeegrrrrrrr..nice job if ya had 5 out...

SCUDSBROTHER 01-24-2007 06:48 PM

Curt can have my TEE-SHIRT.

ArlJim78 01-24-2007 06:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78
3rd 3-7-10-12
4th 2-6-8-12
5th 4-6-7
6th 4-7
7th 1-2-3-4-7-8
8th 11-14

$2,304

Five of Six, missed the whole thing by one length to a $42 dollar horse.

anyway, that was fun.

SCUDSBROTHER 01-24-2007 06:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann
Yeah, she was dead after she got shoved aside and then clipped heels with the horse who did the shoving. Jock wrapped up on her after that. Look at the head-on replay and you can see it happen. The 7 wasn't moving forward as fast as the 6, but that doesn't mean she couldn't have gotten up for second or third with a clean trip.

She doesn't clip heels and MAYBE the winner stays up, but rules concerning the safety of horse and rider have to be enforced.

No,they don't always enforce them,and I guarantee you that if the horse had different connections/odds,then it would be called minor.More importantly ,they would say that it didn't impact the results.They usually care the most about

#1)who the best horse on the day was

In this race,they didn't give a sht about that.They are totally inconsistent.

Kasept 01-24-2007 06:54 PM

Final.. Tony Montana..
 
Congratulations to Viscount and Rootdog for tremendous efforts going 5 of 6 on this wild sextet...

There may be a few other 5 of 6'sthat haven 't been noticed yet.. (Looks like Scuds and Arlington Jim too??)

Winning sequence: 3-8-8-7-8-14

Real payoff: $405,257
Consolation: $2,280 (making our target play figure appropriate..)

Winners should PM me with their mailing address...

Great work everyone and what a fun few days... Thanks to BTW for the concept and generous effort of time. We'll do this more! Hope everyone enjoyed and learned something...!

Gander 01-24-2007 06:55 PM

They usually care the most about

Who they have on their tickets.

Rootdog1 01-24-2007 06:55 PM

5 of 6.........had the 14 in the last but couldnt afford it....put in the dog 10 instead

skippy3481 01-24-2007 06:58 PM

root same here in the race i missed. with just x amount more dollars i could have hit it :) A big thank you to steve and andy for doing this. it was a blast.

point given 01-24-2007 07:03 PM

pain free
 
Thanks for the contest. It was fun to do since I no longer play my small p6 tickets, although I do partake of the Choose 6 where offered. It was really pain free, no cursing at all :D

DerbyCat 01-24-2007 07:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DerbyCat
It sure would be nice to win that Derby Trail gift pack :D

R3 3, 7, 12
R4 5, 11 (depending on which site you look at, this is supposed to be Red Opal and Udriga)
R5 3, 6, 7
R6 3, 4, 7
R7 4, 8, 9
R8 6, 7, 8, 11, 13

3x2x3x3x4x5 x $2 = $2,160

Back-up tickets:
7,12 / 2, 5 / 3, 6 / 4, 8 / 9 / 7, 11, 12 = $96
3, 7, 12 / 5 / 3 / 7, 8 / 1, 9 / 7, 10, 11 = $72
12 / 5, 11 / 3, 6 / 4, 7, 8 / 1, 9 / 9, 11 = $96

TOTAL: $2,424

The above was posted on page 2



Hey guys... I just want to point out that:

1. I'm a doofus :o
2. I used Equibases numbers when I picked my numbers this morning (before I even drank my coffee)
3. I got 5 out of 6

After the 3rd went off I realized my 4th race numbers were off and I corrected it (kind of) by noting the error in bold. Then, the only race I missed picking the winner was Race 4 but my early edit noted that I was using Equibase numbers because Equibase had Red Opal as #5 (Program #6) and Udriga as #11 (Program #12)... I realized later I had more incorrect numbers but I didn't want to make any more edits for fear I would be accused of changing things after the fact :o Due to early scratches, in Race 5 Equibase had Paul's Hope as #7 (Program #8), and in Race 8 Equibase had Tony Montana as #13 (Program #14)...

Do I get credit for this or do I forfeit cause I'm a doofus? If so, I will accept that :(

I sure would like a Derby Trail shirt to go with the hat I bought... any feedback from the Forum?

SCUDSBROTHER 01-24-2007 07:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DerbyCat
The above was posted on page 2



Hey guys... I just want to point out that:

1. I'm a doofus :o
2. I used Equibases numbers when I picked my numbers this morning (before I even drank my coffee)
3. I got 5 out of 6

After the 3rd went off I realized my 4th race numbers were off and I corrected it (kind of) by noting the error in bold. Then, the only race I missed picking the winner was Race 4 but my early edit noted that I was using Equibase numbers because Equibase had Red Opal as #5 (Program #6) and Udriga as #11 (Program #12)... I realized later I had more incorrect numbers but I didn't want to make any more edits for fear I would be accused of changing things after the fact :o Due to early scratches, in Race 5 Equibase had Paul's Hope as #7 (Program #8), and in Race 8 Equibase had Tony Montana as #13 (Program #14)...

Do I get credit for this or do I forfeit cause I'm a doofus? If so, I will accept that :(

I sure would like a Derby Trail shirt to go with the hat I bought... any feedback from the Forum?

Curt speak up.If you don't want my T Shirt,then, whoever this is, can have it.

ArlJim78 01-24-2007 07:12 PM

this is not official, but I found these members all with 5 of 6

rootdog1
docicu3
scuds
viscount26
skippy3481

and myself.:)


I think thats a pretty strong showing for this board in my opinion.

hoovesupsideyourhead 01-24-2007 07:22 PM

i learned 1 thing.. 1 ticket is better than 3..

Kasept 01-24-2007 07:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78
this is not official, but I found these members all with 5 of 6

rootdog1
docicu3
scuds
viscount26
skippy3481

and myself.:)


I think thats a pretty strong showing for this board in my opinion.

A/J..

It's a REMARKABLE EFFORT... Also shows what Andy talked about on the show Monday... how tough it is to get through these even with a liberal budget. Another $2,000 likely gets the 5/6ers home towards the $400,000 payoff.. Look forward to a recap...

2MinsToPost 01-24-2007 07:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER
Curt speak up.If you don't want my T Shirt,then, whoever this is, can have it.

Scuds if ya want, deal

thanks

SCUDSBROTHER 01-24-2007 07:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2MinsToPost
Scuds if ya want, deal

thanks

O.K..Then the shirt is yours.That's what you get as a reward for not coming on here drunk.

SniperSB23 01-24-2007 07:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept
A/J..

It's a REMARKABLE EFFORT... Also shows what Andy talked about on the show Monday... how tough it is to get through these even with a liberal budget. Another $2,000 likely gets the 5/6ers home towards the $400,000 payoff.. Look forward to a recap...

If I played the perfect ticket and just went deep enough in each leg to hit the winner it would have still cost me $5400 and that includes a single.

2MinsToPost 01-24-2007 07:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER
O.K..Then the shirt is yours.That's what you get as a reward for not coming on here drunk.

Thanks Scuds, honest I appreciate this, really do. I'll pm Steve my addy.

scrimshaw 01-24-2007 09:11 PM

I gotta say... there's a few of us on this forum that know what we're doing!! :D :D :D

We'd be a force in a syndicate. 408K split ten ways would be fine with me!

The best I did was 4 out of 6 thanks to that damn Moogie...

blackthroatedwind 01-24-2007 09:19 PM

Honestly, I think everybody did a remarkably good job, and it's extraordinarily impressive how many people had fives ( and I'm assuming multiple times ). Congratulations on a super tough job very well done.

One of the reasons I thought of this was that I was explaining to Byk just how hard it is to put together winning tickets ( and don't fool yourself, no matter how smart you think you are, or are, it takes at least a little luck ). $2500 does not go very far at all especially in a card like this one with many big fields. Often times people look at the results and say " I could have had that ", and it's very possible there are people that had every winner somewhere on their tickets, but getting them all on ONE ticket is another story.

No doubt ten people are better off putting $250 each together than playing 10 seperate $250 plays. Like someone just said, 10% of $400K aint bad.

Congrats again. I can't speak for anyone else but I'm impressed.

docicu3 01-24-2007 09:54 PM

5 of 6......it's a whole lot worse than kissing your sister!!!
 


Damn had 5 of 6 and the 2nd and 3rd place horses in the race I missed the 6th......Any thoughts from anyone about errors you think I made with ticket structure or missing somethig obvious on the race I blew.....please provide constructive feedback!!!

2nd time I had P6 with 5 of 6 at SA in two weeks.... The ticket cost $2304 so end up breaking even while the years off my life praying for the 7 or the 4 in the 6Th to catch the 8 are gone forever!!.....a sprint to route angle I missed......and of course it happens in the middle race so it screws up the rollling pick 3's......Yikes!!!!!
I am not anywhere as smart as alot of you guys......

Byk you should have my mailing address and my check for the syndicate by this time......

DrDave

ArlJim78 01-24-2007 10:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Honestly, I think everybody did a remarkably good job, and it's extraordinarily impressive how many people had fives ( and I'm assuming multiple times ). Congratulations on a super tough job very well done.

One of the reasons I thought of this was that I was explaining to Byk just how hard it is to put together winning tickets ( and don't fool yourself, no matter how smart you think you are, or are, it takes at least a little luck ). $2500 does not go very far at all especially in a card like this one with many big fields. Often times people look at the results and say " I could have had that ", and it's very possible there are people that had every winner somewhere on their tickets, but getting them all on ONE ticket is another story.

No doubt ten people are better off putting $250 each together than playing 10 seperate $250 plays. Like someone just said, 10% of $400K aint bad.

Congrats again. I can't speak for anyone else but I'm impressed.

Seriously, if we had 20 people put in $250, $5,000 wagered, I know we'd have taken it today. Even 5% of $400K is not a bad return on the $250.

blackthroatedwind 01-24-2007 10:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78
Seriously, if we had 20 people put in $250, $5,000 wagered, I know we'd have taken it today. Even 5% of $400K is not a bad return on the $250.

Not bad at all.

scrimshaw 01-24-2007 10:07 PM

If there comes along another fat carryover with some stronger races on the card, we should give some serious thought to trying to pin one on it. But, there's a fairly cumbersome logistical problem of gathering and distributing money that one person would have to take on. Perhaps that person would get a little more of the pot for their troubles? Just a thought.

blackthroatedwind 01-24-2007 10:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by docicu3

Damn had 5 of 6 and the 2nd and 3rd place horses in the race I missed the 6th......Any thoughts from anyone about errors you think I made with ticket structure or missing somethig obvious on the race I blew.....please provide constructive feedback!!!

2nd time I had P6 with 5 of 6 at SA in two weeks.... The ticket cost $2304 so end up breaking even while the years off my life praying for the 7 or the 4 in the 6Th to catch the 8 are gone forever!!.....a sprint to route angle I missed......and of course it happens in the middle race so it screws up the rollling pick 3's......Yikes!!!!!
I am not anywhere as smart as alot of you guys......

Byk you should have my mailing address and my check for the syndicate by this time......

DrDave


Just because you lost doesn't mean you did anything wrong. Seems to me you did a hell of a lot more right than wrong.

The thing paid $400K or 160 times $2500. Five of six is DAMN good.

blackthroatedwind 01-24-2007 10:13 PM

One piece of advice, or thought, and I mean this as no criticism, but a mistake people make is handicapping too much sometimes in a Pick-6. Hitting a Pick-6 can, and does, come down to knowing what races opinions are important and what races it is important to just survive.

ArlJim78 01-24-2007 10:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
One piece of advice, or thought, and I mean this as no criticism, but a mistake people make is handicapping too much sometimes in a Pick-6. Hitting a Pick-6 can, and does, come down to knowing what races opinions are important and what races it is important to just survive.

Sound advice. There are races that defy handicapping. I think you're right. You have to recognize what each race offers. Is it a race that you can get a read on and hence form a somewhat confident opinion, or is it a race that you more or less have to buy your way past.

SCUDSBROTHER 01-24-2007 10:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78
Sound advice. There are races that defy handicapping. I think you're right. You have to recognize what each race offers. Is it a race that you can get a read on and hence form a somewhat confident opinion, or is it a race that you more or less have to buy your way past.

This is true.I had no real clue who was gunna win the 3rd,4th,or 7th,but had a pretty good feel for the 5th,6th,and 8th.

docicu3 01-24-2007 11:07 PM

Again Scuds I should have talked to you about the 6TH as I had Place and Show horses but screwed up missing the route to sprint angle. Did you like the 8??

Next carry we exchange thoughts before the P6.....this 5 of 6 the last two big SA carry's is nice but it's alot like spending all day at the track and going home even......it's better than tanking but not by alot...

SCUDSBROTHER 01-24-2007 11:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by docicu3
Again Scuds I should have talked to you about the 6TH as I had Place and Show horses but screwed up missing the route to sprint angle. Did you like the 8??

Next carry we exchange thoughts before the P6.....this 5 of 6 the last two big SA carry's is nice but it's alot like spending all day at the track and going home even......it's better than tanking but not by alot...


O.K.,I think I have put this together now.You are actually talking about the 5th race.Well,I can't get that f'n Palma Horse(Paul's Hope.) The only way I could get it was to go wide in there. I went wide in the 3rd,4th,and 7th.So,if you(or myself)want to get that horse,then we would have to go lean in a race we didn't go lean in today,and go wide in the 5th.I think that the 5th should of been won by Nakatanl's horse,but he is out of the groove at the moment,and Espinoza was in the groove today.Therefore,Corey got beat.I think the horse will come right back and win(with a better ride.....much like T. Montana won by getting a better ride today.)I think you want to know angles to get Paul's Hope.I only see 2.

1)Espinoza gave the winner of the 1st a good inspired ride....You could lean on that.

2)I think Paul's Hope was dropping in class (a bit.)When they finish a football field behind,I am not that big on the route to sprint angle.

docicu3 01-24-2007 11:57 PM

Your right it was the 5TH.....sorry I am so pissed I can't even count!!!

SCUDSBROTHER 01-25-2007 12:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by docicu3
Your right it was the 5TH.....sorry I am so pissed I can't even count!!!

Actually,a 3rd angle ........I think that the sire of Paul's Hope is a decent win early-speed type.I don't know that much about him,but I like the speed I have seen from his horses.

JudyGold 01-25-2007 05:06 AM

fyi
 
Top handicapper at SA James Quinn put this ticket together

a b
3. 12 7-5-9

4. 6-12 2-4

5.4-12-7-11

6.7-1 4-8

7.7-8-1 9

8.11-12 13-14

a ticket by itself $192 2 winners
full ticket a+b 8192 for 3 winners

scrimshaw 01-25-2007 08:44 AM

Paul's Hope
 
Paul's Hope...

I picked him up going deep in that leg. What stuck out the most to me were a few things (even though I thought others would actually win the race):

Obviously, Espinoza taking the mount makes me think the horse is going to be live. He was dropping from 75K MCL down to 32K MCL (nice drop, actually biggest drop in the field). Also, this horse seemed to be fit because of his progression of works and, more importantly, his 3f work just 3 days before the race. Normally I don't pay much attention to 3f works unless they are sub :36. This one happened to be :35 which tells me, if nothing else, this horse is probably more fit than he's ever been. Again, combine that with Espinoza taking the mount and the class drop seems legit.

Regarding being beaten by a football field. I thought the trainer knew the horse wasn't "in" that last race. Anytime I see a horse coming back from a layoff their last race (which, this one was) and see the lengths back increase so drastically from stretch to the wire, I give the benefit of the doubt to that race being a "work." It was a route, you make the horse run more than he naturally wants to go for some good competitive exercise. Give him a week or two off and let him swell up like a rockstar, bring him back for a sharp 3f work to get his mind on racing....and Boom!! Tough Actin Tinactin.

Anybody know if he was claimed??

Sightseek 01-25-2007 08:47 AM

Thank you to the people who posted what they saw in Paul's Hope.

scrimshaw 01-25-2007 08:52 AM

Not claimed
 
Paul's Hope was not claimed, but Wage a Kiss and Ringmaster were.


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