Rumbling and stumbling and still won by 3 1/2 lengths.

Just my opinion but he looked very impressive today. Not sure if he’ll be chalk but I like how things played out today.

I’ve been out on Game Winner as the derby favorite. He doesn’t get good early position and runs wide a lot. I like the horse but he runs in small fields and still doesn’t get ideal trips. I thought he should have won today but was 4 wide the entire race.

He was a huge favorite in the multis. He was always going to be 8:5 or lower. The late money is almost always 99% predictable by looking at multis.

Tacitus is a monster? Really?

A little early, no? Promising for sure, but hardly a monster. Everything doesn't have to be hyperbole.

Yeah, I should have known it was too good to be true. I’ll still take it.

I like Improbable a whole lot but the Arkansas Derby is a pretty tough field. There is at least a chance he doesn’t finish in the top 3 next weekend and that Power House 3 becomes a Power House 2.

I’m debating on putting a future wager on Improbable. He was just at 12-1. If he rises a little, I’ll probably put some money on him.

Baffert doesn’t have a power house three. He had one shot Roadster. Tacitus is improving but far from a monster. His figures won’t be high from the wood. The horse that impressed me the most so far Joey is maximum security but hell can you bet him in derby. This is going to be a difficult puzzle first Saturday in May.

Can’t see game winner having any shot. If he was a power house would have won easy today.

I agree I don’t like Game Winner. Good horse but I don’t see him winning the derby. We’ll see about Improbable. I don’t think he’ll beat Omaha Beach.

You know I love him. If I had to choose 1 horse right now it would be him. He feels most likely to me to sit the right trip and move forward again. That's knowing Baffert is going to have 3 live shots. Baffert could have the top 3 betting favorites if Improbable is impressive next Saturday.

I thought he was closing. To me it looked like Vekoma went from the 1 to 4 path in the stretch. Both he and Somelikeithotbrown looked to be going sideways. Crazy.

He was steadied around the three eighths while rallying, but to me he had a lot go right in a bad race. I mean, he ran down Signalman. He might be third in the Matt Wynn.

I think we both agree no Derby winner coming out of that race. Still wide open. I like what I saw in Roadster BUT he really worked Hard today.

Jon White's Projected Kentucky Derby Odds

9-2 Omaha Beach
5-1 Roadster
6-1 Game Winner
6-1 Tacitus

10-1 Improbable
12-1 Maximum Security
15-1 Code of Honor
15-1 Vekoma

20-1 By My Standards
20-1 Tax
20-1 War of Will
20-1 Win Win Win

30-1 Country House
30-1 Cutting Humor
30-1 Haikal
30-1 Long Range Toddy
30-1 Plus Que Parfait
30-1 Spinoff

50-1 Gray Magician
50-1 Master Fencer

If we could change one and only one event from this weekend, it would be to never open the latch for Joevia in the Wood Memorial. Nik Juarez should get multiple weeks for that reckless ride. His ride turned what could have been the most interesting Wood in two decades into roller derby on four hooves.

Yes, Tacitus did run down Tax fair-and-square while Haikal's closing punch into a 46 4/5 half was watered down going two turns. Horses like Final Jeopardy, Outshine, and Hoffa's Union did not get a fair shot. Tacitus might well have been best and Junior Alvarado's post-race fist bump with Jose Ortiz in their gallop-out pretty much says the same.

Makes you wonder what might have been Vekoma's fate if in the Wood as opposed to the Blue Grass. He might have kicked someone sideways!

He’s a three year old in April, he’s supposed to be working hard for everything.

Is everyone who has enough points gonna go to the derby ? Looks like Anothertwistafate has to run in the Lexington to get more points.

AR DERBY

Galilean (Flavien Prat)
Gray Attempt (Stewart Elliott)
Improbable (Jose Ortiz)
Long Range Toddy (Jon Court)
Omaha Beach (Mike Smith)
One Flew South (Calvin Borel)
Six Shooter (David Cohen)
Country House (Mott)

Roiland (Amoss)
Jersey Agenda (Asmussen)
Laughing Fox (Asmussen)
Tikhvin Flew (Asmussen)

Originally Gray Magician was most likely out but I’ve read that they’re considering running. I haven’t heard anything about any other horses not running.

As it is now, you’ve got a number of horses out of the top 18 that may be running on Saturday:

Omaha Beach
Improbable
Country House
Galilean
Gray Attempt
Six Shooter
Jersey Agenda
Last Judgment
Anothertwistafate
Sueno
Mucho Gusto

Plus some others.

Those horses with 40 points who thought they were probably safe for the derby may end up on the outside looking in.

Juarez was suspended 15 days and fined $2,500. The problem is, he normally rides in Florida and is already back there riding so the suspension is almost entirely symbolic.

What are peoples thoughts on By My Standards? I originally wasn't all that impressed with the Louisiana Derby but as I've rewatched a few times I may be changing my mind. He seems like the horse that is (maybe) improving at the right time. And nothing I've watched subsequently has really peaked my interest. Maybe he is improving just enough to at the very least compete with a group that doesn't seem to have a real standout.

Not sure how he'll do at 10F but who knows? He seems to have the style that might fit the race flow and he should be a more than decent price...

He likely won’t be my selection but I can’t exclude him from consideration. The pedigree looks like he could have challenges with the distance...but almost every horse in the race has a question mark surrounding them.

5/4 (CD): KENTUCKY DERBY

1. Tacitus 150 (Mott/J. Ortiz) $610,000
2. Omaha Beach 137.5 (Mandella/Smith) $1,050,000
3. Vekoma 110 (Weaver/Castellano) $747,600
4. Plus Que Parfait 104 (Walsh/R. Santana) $1,540,400
5. Roadster 100 (Baffert/Geroux) $636,000
6. By My Standards 100 (Calhoun/G. Saez) $600,000
7. Maximum Security 100 (Ja. Servis/L. Saez) $582,800
8. Game Winner 85 (Baffert/Rosario) $1,810,000
9. Code of Honor 74 (McGaughey/Velazquez) $432,070
10. Haikal 70 (McLaughlin/Maragh) $322,500
11. Improbable 65 (Baffert/I. Ortiz) $589,520
12. War of Will 60 (Casse/Gaffalione) $450,840
13. Long Range Toddy (Asmussen/Court) $830,000
14. Tax 52 (Gargan/Alvarado) $307,500
15. Cutting Humor 50 (Pletcher/TBA) $462,467
16. Win Win Win 50 (Trombetta/Pimental) $316,000
17. Country House 50 (Mott/TBA) $220,000
18. Gray Magician 41 (Miller/TBA) $526,000
19. Spinoff 40 (Pletcher/M. Franco) $224,000
20. JPN-Master Fencer (Tsunoda/Leparoux) N/A
--------------------------
21. Bodexpress 40 (Delgado/Juarez) $188,000
22. Signalman 38 (McPeek) $496,840
23. Anothertwistafate 38 (Wright) $268,960
24. Sueno 32 (Desormeaux) $285,000
25. Bourbon War 31 (Hennig) $137,200
26. Instagrand 30 (Hollendorfer) $276,000

I doubt War of Will is gonna run in the derby. Signalman should be looking at other options too.

On one of the ATRs this week, Steve indicated that Casse was still pointing toward the derby with WOW. I guess we’ll see.

WAR OF WILL (4/13)

(If concerned about his status, watch his :59 bullet at KEE this morning.. Note his extended gallop out to over a mile)

Is that work supposed to be encouraging? He looks uneasy and trying hard.

Could have some interesting new shooters in the Preakness. Owendale looked good today. And I'd like to see Bourbon War in a genuine race.

Oy vey. First, it shows that he’s 100% sound. And he’s wasn’t ‘uneasy’ at all, nor was he asked for anything by Gaffallione.

I’m skeptical of the overall talent level in the Lexington. Owendale ran a nice race but none of the horses close to a pretty modest pace were able to finish particularly well.

I've never been a big fan and tried beating him when hes been short prices, but he could be a use now at around 20-1.

Jose Ortiz takes the Derby call on Tacitus..

BY MY STANDARDS (4/11)

Thriving back home at Churchill. Scary good working on Thursday and didn't want to stop.

Thanks for posting, Steve. I like it!!

I know I responded and said I wouldn’t be betting him...and maybe I still won’t. But he looked good in that workout and I wonder if maybe he’s peaking at the right time. Going to go back and watch some more of his races.

Kind of feel like the LA Derby horses are headed toward Wise Guy status but hard not to kind of think they are sneaky IMO. I like them all a little, so far a bit inclined on Spin-off especially if JV maintains the faith

JV has a few options - Spinoff, Cutting Humor, Code of Honor. Will he spurn Pletcher for Shug? He didn’t do that in 2013 and Orb ended up winning the Kentucky derby that year.

Strangely enough, this could be another year similar to 2013. Orb was the favorite at above 5-1. I guess I could see Omaha Beach ending below 5-1 but so many people like the Baffert horses that those 3 are going to take a ton of money. And perhaps a horse, like Orb (or maybe Code of Honor), comes from off the pace.

I’m not sure I’ll be playing him either but I keep liking him more and more. With the exception of maybe the Ark. Derby I haven’t seen too much that excites me this year.

I’m really interested to see how they bet this Derby. Right now, I’m guessing he will be 8th choice. That probably puts him around 15,20-1 range. That might be enough for me to use him someplace in the top 3. But we’ll see...still got three weeks to change my mind 100 times! Should be a fun derby.

And Irad gets on Improbable

Pimental back on Win Win Win.. Leparoux gets the Japanese invader Master Fencer..

Will money mike stick with the red and white of fox hill farm ? Or go for Roadster ?