Possibly. Old Fashioned may be more "accomplished," but if anyone wins the FOY with any kind of authority, that horse will rightfully get bet hard. Calling OF a legit Derby favorite is premature is what I'm saying. We don't yet know if he's legit or the favorite.

Out of all those Derby winners listed, only two horses ever won 10 or more races in their career. :zz: :zz:

Silver Charm and Funny Cide.

six horses on that list only started 10 times or less. :zz:

well, one thing was evident in this race to me.

Poltergeist ran like.....well, ran like a Texas bred. :)

I expected more from him, especially with a sharp, recent win going two turns over the track.

The 2009 Southwest has officially become the most over-analyzed race in the Derby Trail Prep History.

93

The FoY is setting up to be a tricky race imo.

On one hand - it's going to be loaded with horses who are extremely talented sprinter/milers proven capable of running fast for 6-to-7fs ... and if they all run the way they figure to ... the race can absolutely collapse late and make a deep closing winner look a lot better than he is.

On the other hand - let's say the connections of every one of these sharp sprint horses but Notonthesamepage are focusing on avoiding a pace meltdown and commit to extremely patient rate and finish tactics with longer distance races in mind. If that happens - and Notonthesamepage is not pressured and runs back to that insane win on opening day ... it's over. But he's still just not a serious derby horse.

I would think bettors will be skeptical of any winner if the race plays out to either of the extremes...which it might. But I also thought This One's For Phil would be about 20/1 in round #1 of the Derby futures .. and he ended up more than twice that .. so who knows.

I beat the '07 version of the Southwest to death here. The race Hard Spun was hung wide on both turns - rated back against a slow pace over a very pro inside-speed track - and ran a sneaky good 4th behind Tufulesburg.

It was actually a sneaky huge performance .. but it came after a Lecomte win of his on comeback that I thought was much less impressive than looked on paper or tape.

I think we do know he is the favorite as he closed that way in the future pool. As for being a legit Derby favorite, it's all speculative until they run the race. You obviously aren't in love with him but I havent caught where you have pointed the correct choice out. After the FOY, maybe there will be a more deserving favorite, but until then, I have to think OF is the obvious pick.

It also doesn't hurt that LJ has said he believes OF is the best horse he has ever trained after having Hard Spun, Eight Belles and Proud Spell the past few years and FF this year. Guy seems to know his stock pretty well....

I think you're well on your way of Rachel Alexandra-ing us all to death too. :)

Good post, although I'd be surprised if OF really is a better horse than Hard Spun.

It's ok.

I just found my ritalin.

He was the victim of a two very key circumstances:

* Being born the same year as Curlin.

* Street Sense peaking at the right time (Hard Spun ran a huge race in the KY Derby, an effort that wins most Derby's nowadays).

When was the last time we saw a horse capable of winning a G1 sprint and nearly taking down a G1 10f Derby?

2000. More Than Ready.

...or Afleet Alex.

My memory is so bad, I should never delve into these areas, but didn't Black Tie Affair win the BC Classic after the year prior running third in the BC Sprint?

Not the same as your question, but a versitile horse.

The bottom line is Old Fashioned being considered the division leader speaks to where horse racing is today. He's a good horse, don't get me wrong, but none-the-less...

Ah yes, Afleet Alex. He deserved the Derby that year...

I was a huge fan of his after seeing his Sanford at Saratoga - it was one of the most exciting stretch kicks I've seen live in person.

But he didn't carry it throughout his 3-year-old season quite like Hard Spun.

Hard Spun had a really good campaign capping it off with a second in the Breeders' Cup Classic. It's funny how things work out... if Street Sense checks in traffic, Hard Spun is a Derby winner and instantly becomes one of the most coveted sires of the past 10-20 years.

How's that?

Except that More Than Ready was not close to winning the Derby.

I would have preferred he run third to that ghastly four-horse entry, would have helped my trifecta.

NT

FTFY

NT

He was sort of close.

Sure, he was close enough to feel the breeze as FuPeg and Aptitude blew by him.

NT

My point is, I thought he was the best of the group, and had a bad ride and proved himself as the superior horse in that crop at that time of year in the Preakness and Belmont. That said, Closing Argument ran harder, but never materialized beyond that race.

Does Afleet Alex deserve "The Derby"... well, did Giacomo? Lil E. Tee?

Good fix... very true...

Did somebody mention Black Tie Affair?

I never understood the " bad ride " argument. I thought he got a great ride and lost a horse race with 20 horses. It happens and that's one of the reasons winning the TC is such an elusive accomplishment.

Horses don't necessarily " deserve " to win races. They do, however, either win or lose them. Afleet Alex lost that Derby. Flower Alley may have " deserved " it the most if you really think trips should always dictate who was most deserving.

This might be the first time I have ever seen this comment in print. I have always thought he was best that day,glad someone else thinks that way also, but was it Chavez that went right up Spanish Chesnut's ass, or whoever was on the lead winging it? It was someone making a poor decision, but like you said, 20 horses, there isn't many openings.

That was one comically bad ride Flower Alley got in that Derby.

He didn't get a great one in the Arkansas Derby that year either. It probably wouldn't have mattered because Afleet Alex was much the best that day, but Flower Alley broke from something like the 4 or 5 post in a ten-horse field, but somehow ended up widest of all going into the first turn. He raced wide chasing the pace all the way around the track, and made a strong move to get the lead briefly on the 2nd turn before AA flew by him. He then held off the rest of the field for a second place finish that was a lot more impressive than his huge margin of defeat to AA would indicate.
I remember liking him in the Derby that year off of his performance at Oaklawn along with High Limit, High Fly, and Bandini. Needless to say....I didn't cash.

In retrospect, with the trips Flower Alley got that spring, it isn't that surprising that he had such a strong summer/fall campaign later that year.

I don't think the poster was talking about the future wager.

And as for what Jones says, that's nice, but sometimes trainers get it wrong or exaggerate, and that's why I prefer to judge on what I see. Didn't Bob Baffert say Indian Blessing's brother was the best horse he's ever had or something? Sometimes they're just BS'ing, sometimes they're wrong.

Old Fashioned might turn out to be awesome, but it's super early to call him the deserving Derby favorite (if you're not talking about the future wager) with two more months of preps to run. Why do I need to "point the correct choice out" 2 1/2 months from the race?

So I can drop my savings ($47) on him in the next futures pool and give you props for your keen foresight! I suppose you still get a golf clap if OF doesn't win, which he most likely won't, but it seems silly to me to say he isn't a deserving favorite at this point and giiving the unknown winner of a race that hasn't been run yet as a more likely candidate.

Sorry, I just don't understand the rush to name a Derby winner/favorite in February. Future wagers are essentially shots in the dark, so I'm not really interested in who's at what price. I don't want a golf clap if OF doesn't win, I'm just venting on what I think is a weird reflex to name a Derby winner/favorite this early.

Understood. But this site is called derbytrail. I'm surprised there aren't 150 threads spouting the merits of different contenders, even at this early date. As a matter of fact, I think I'll start one now.:D

The Afleet Alex tangent begun with the question of a colt winning a G1 sprint and nearly winning the 10f KY Derby. Did Alex win a G1 sprint? I know he won a sprint early at 3 (Mountain Valley?) but it was ungraded. Did he win the Hopeful or something?
I think that Hard Spun's excellent TC campaign followed up with a G1 sprint win (later followed by two good routes against major horses) is better than Alex's 3yo campaign, though Alex did have to stop after the Belmont.
More Than Ready was nowhere near as versatile as Hard Spun though he did surprise me with his Derby.

He won the 7F Hopeful which was a Grade 1.

There isn't enough room here.....ya know, with all the birthday threads clogging the site.

It's very possible. If you go back to a weekend in late June of last year(like around June 30th) you'll see the track at HWD had a closer bias on a Friday Night. The next afternoon it had about the biggest speed bias you'll ever see at HWD. As for the effort by O.F., I liked it a lot. Seemed like they went a lil too fast, and he didn't consider giving it up. His stride did something a lil weird at the end of the Remson. To get 10f, he might need the surface to be pretty lively on Derby day(usually is though.) I like the Western stand outs (POTN, and Stardom Bound,) but the change in surface(to Churchill dirt) seems to be a huge one. I think the 10f is a big question for S.B., too. OLD F prooved he could run close to a fairly fast early pace, put away the other speed, and keep going. On Derby day, if horses run close like that to a pretty good pace, then most of them are gunna give it up(mid-race.) For me, he ruled that out yesterday. This is the horse that's gunna lead into the stretch in the Derby. After that, we'll see.

You say that now, but wait till it's your birthday.

:rolleyes: