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-   -   Most Talented 3yo since the 90's? (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4743)

King Glorious 09-22-2006 08:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dixie Porter
Most overated horse in the history of the game. Best PR campaign in the history of the game.

You'd be amazed at the people that bought into those fairy tales after every loss (5 in all).

That is one horse I really wished would have kept on racing. Nice job by Penny with IRS BS.

:mad:

As u know, I agree with u to an extent. Now most people will say I'm knocking Sec and that's not true. I do believe that he was one of the all-time greats just nowhere near the best ever. Probably not even top 10. I think it's just mostly mystique nowdays that make people want to list him in their top two or three ever. That Belmont race was a freak effort. He was NOT a 2:24 horse. Look at his Woodward and the turf race to get a better idea of how he was at 12f. Still good but not otherwordly. And just imagine if there had been a horse in the Belmont capable of going in 2:27. Then Sec's margin of victory would have been "only" 15. While still dominant, the perception wouldn't be the way it is today because it was 31 lengths. And who knows what he would have done as a 4yo? It's not a guarantee that they automatically improve. The way he ran as a 3yo could suggest that he was already at his peak. If u are going to say he would have improved, would we then have expected 1:57 10f races, 2:23 12f races, or 1:31 miles? Doubtful. And I think it's a mistake to overlook the fact that he lost two of three races when facing older horses on dirt and although he did run 1:45 2/5 in the Marlboro, remember it's Belmont and one-turn and good horses run fast times there. I have seen Go for Wand and Dispersal run 1:45 4/5 there. Secretariat was great. There is no doubt about that. But still overrated.

Assttodixie 09-22-2006 08:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dixie Porter
Most overated horse in the history of the game. Best PR campaign in the history of the game.

You'd be amazed at the people that bought into those fairy tales after every loss (5 in all).

That is one horse I really wished would have kept on racing. Nice job by Penny with IRS BS.

:mad:

Boss-

Once again, your uncanny knack for horses will dumbfound and confuse these MORONS.

They have no idea like you do that Big Red was on Roids. You have firsthand knowledge that Victor Conte's grandpa was sending the "clear" and the "cream" to Penny and the gang when Barry Bonds was still in diapers. Heck, "red beans" were named in honor of the big horse.

The time in the belmont that still stands today? Mirage!

Derby record that still stands today? Mirage as well!

Unofficial preakness record? Phony!

Marlboro cup? bad day by all the other horses!

Yes, just a great media campaign for an overrated horse.

Cajungator26 09-22-2006 09:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dixie Porter
I really wonder if anyone on here but me actually understands that.

;)

Actually, I called it before you. ;) :D

Quote:
Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay
I agree with that first part. Sunday Silence beat him in the Derby, Preakness, and BCC, so I'll take him any day of the week over Easy Goer...

IMO, Easy Goer had more talent than Sunday Silence. Whether he utilized it or not was another story...

sham 09-22-2006 09:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious
As u know, I agree with u to an extent. Now most people will say I'm knocking Sec and that's not true. I do believe that he was one of the all-time greats just nowhere near the best ever. Probably not even top 10. I think it's just mostly mystique nowdays that make people want to list him in their top two or three ever. That Belmont race was a freak effort. He was NOT a 2:24 horse. Look at his Woodward and the turf race to get a better idea of how he was at 12f. Still good but not otherwordly. And just imagine if there had been a horse in the Belmont capable of going in 2:27. Then Sec's margin of victory would have been "only" 15. While still dominant, the perception wouldn't be the way it is today because it was 31 lengths. And who knows what he would have done as a 4yo? It's not a guarantee that they automatically improve. The way he ran as a 3yo could suggest that he was already at his peak. If u are going to say he would have improved, would we then have expected 1:57 10f races, 2:23 12f races, or 1:31 miles? Doubtful. And I think it's a mistake to overlook the fact that he lost two of three races when facing older horses on dirt and although he did run 1:45 2/5 in the Marlboro, remember it's Belmont and one-turn and good horses run fast times there. I have seen Go for Wand and Dispersal run 1:45 4/5 there. Secretariat was great. There is no doubt about that. But still overrated.

Perhaps you could share with us ten 3yos that were better than Secretariat.

somerfrost 09-22-2006 09:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sham
Perhaps you could share with us ten 3yos that were better than Secretariat.

I've debated this for...well, since 1973. Secretariat was the greatest horse to ever set foot on a track...period! All you had to do was see him run to appreciate him...there was no PR campaign, no smoke and mirrors, just pure talent! I won't post in this thread again as folks have their minds made up one way or another...I've given the stats hundreds of times, broken down every race...some folks have an argument for every fact...so be it! He ran a 2:24 in the Belmont...to say he wasn't a 2:24 horse is ridiculous...he ran the race! And Sham was fully capable of running a 2:25...but not after going under 1:10 for 6f...pace makes the race and Secretariat's pace that day reduced the others to also-rans...name me a horse that could have run with him that day? Sham would run the likes Point Given, Sunday Silence and the other so-called "better" horses into oblivion, only Tiznow of the recent runners would possibly best him, and he would have to catch him!

Downthestretch55 09-22-2006 09:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by somerfrost
I've debated this for...well, since 1973. Secretariat was the greatest horse to ever set foot on a track...period! All you had to do was see him run to appreciate him...there was no PR campaign, no smoke and mirrors, just pure talent! I won't post in this thread again as folks have their minds made up one way or another...I've given the stats hundreds of times, broken down every race...some folks have an argument for every fact...so be it! He ran a 2:24 in the Belmont...to say he wasn't a 2:24 horse is ridiculous...he ran the race! And Sham was fully capable of running a 2:25...but not after going under 1:10 for 6f...pace makes the race and Secretariat's pace that day reduced the others to also-rans...name me a horse that could have run with him that day? Sham would run the likes Point Given, Sunday Silence and the other so-called "better" horses into oblivion, only Tiznow of the recent runners would possibly best him, and he would have to catch him!

I agree with you about Secretariat. Nice to see the facts to back up your position.
I don't know where this thread made a turn towards the rail, and you can correct me if I'm mistaken, but isn't the title of this thread "Most talented 3yo since the 90's"? Hmmmm.

Cajungator26 09-22-2006 10:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Downthestretch55
I agree with you about Secretariat. Nice to see the facts to back up your position.
I don't know where this thread made a turn towards the rail, and you can correct me if I'm mistaken, but isn't the title of this thread "Most talented 3yo since the 90's"? Hmmmm.

Yep, always has to get off topic, doesn't it? I still stand by my two choices though... Holy Bull and Point Given.

JJP 09-22-2006 10:12 AM

Talent is meaningless. Its all about accomplishment. To many, Easy Goer was more "talented" than Sunday Silence. Yet SS accomplished more. People are obsessed with raw talent. The QB who can air it out 70 yards, the MLB pitcher who can hit the high 90s on the radar gun, the WR with 4.3 speed. But what good is it if the results aren't there?

boswd 09-22-2006 10:22 AM

Yeah that post by both King Glorious and Dixie Porter had to have been the most foolish post I have ever read.

Wins the the Triple Crown by setting Stakes records in all three races that still hold up today. Wins the Belmont by 31 lengths. YEAH. OVERRATED!!! Unbelievable someone can actually think that.

blackthroatedwind 09-22-2006 10:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by boswd
Yeah that post by both King Glorious and Dixie Porter had to have been the most foolish post I have ever read.

Trust me...it'll get curiouser and curiouser.

Downthestretch55 09-22-2006 10:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Trust me...it'll get curiouser and curiouser.

Usually does, especially when they forget to take their meds.

boswd 09-22-2006 10:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Trust me...it'll get curiouser and curiouser.

I am going to go out on a limb and say that at least one of them is from the West coast. I have no idea where there from but it's a hunch.

sham 09-22-2006 10:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by somerfrost
I've debated this for...well, since 1973. Secretariat was the greatest horse to ever set foot on a track...period! All you had to do was see him run to appreciate him...there was no PR campaign, no smoke and mirrors, just pure talent! I won't post in this thread again as folks have their minds made up one way or another...I've given the stats hundreds of times, broken down every race...some folks have an argument for every fact...so be it! He ran a 2:24 in the Belmont...to say he wasn't a 2:24 horse is ridiculous...he ran the race! And Sham was fully capable of running a 2:25...but not after going under 1:10 for 6f...pace makes the race and Secretariat's pace that day reduced the others to also-rans...name me a horse that could have run with him that day? Sham would run the likes Point Given, Sunday Silence and the other so-called "better" horses into oblivion, only Tiznow of the recent runners would possibly best him, and he would have to catch him!

You get only agreement from me. Secretariat also grades-out as the best 3yo in every analysis I have done. His closest competitor is Man O'War and they were pretty much even in my opinion. My data base is limited to only horses that raced in the US since 1900. I have no idea how the horses stack-up Euros vs. US for example. The best female...Ruffian...and it's not even close as to 2nd best among the ladies. I also don't compare 3yos to the 4&up group. Elders have a definite advantage...about 4 lengths on average at a reference distance of 10fl. Many, when comparing the past greats, forget about this fact. Secretariat and Spectacular Bid is a good case in point. Those that consider Bid to be better than Red are remembering the 4yo Bid and the 3yo Secretariat. As 3yo to 3yo, Secretariat ran several lengths faster than Bid on average. As to the chances that Secretariat would have improved had he raced as a 4yo?...It works out like this. 70% of horses that go on to race as elders improve their average run times. Of the remaining 30%, many have injury related issues. This means that the odds that Red would improve is greater than 70 percent. Actually, he would have needed no improvement to defeat all but a very small number of the very best past greats. I apologize for getting off topic.

todko 09-22-2006 10:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by somerfrost
Just a reminder, Smarty ran the following fractions in the Belmont:
24 2/5, 48 4/5, 1:11 3/5, 1:35 2/5, 2:00 2/5....before struggling home in 2:27 3/5.
That means his first half mile was in 48 4/5
The second suicidal half he ran in 46 3/5 including 22 4/5 for the two furlongs between 4-6f
so...2f splits: 24 2/5, 24 2/5, 22 4/5, 23 4/5, 25, 27....horses can't do that second half in a 12f race and survive!

I was a big fan of Smarty but did bet Birdstone also that day. Birdstone had the rest, the breeding, the trainer, plus the price.

The thing we forget, is what Birdstone was doing during those fractions. He wasn't exactly standing still either. He ran a very good race and may have won anyway. With slower middle fractions Smarty might have had more left and won -- but then maybe Birdstone would have tackled him earlier and won in a long duel. It's tough to say. Zito had Birdstone primed that day.

It seems that right now both Smarty and Birdstone are almost never mentioned in the press.

Smarty was a hell of a horse who brought serious game every time he was in the gate. Some of his races as a two year old were stunning.

paisjpq 09-22-2006 11:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JJP
Talent is meaningless. Its all about accomplishment. To many, Easy Goer was more "talented" than Sunday Silence.

not likely to acomplish much without talent...
and this thread asked for an opinion on talented 3yo not necessarily most accomplished..

Downthestretch55 09-22-2006 11:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sham
You get only agreement from me. Secretariat also grades-out as the best 3yo in every analysis I have done. His closest competitor is Man O'War and they were pretty much even in my opinion. My data base is limited to only horses that raced in the US since 1900. I have no idea how the horses stack-up Euros vs. US for example. The best female...Ruffian...and it's not even close as to 2nd best among the ladies. I also don't compare 3yos to the 4&up group. Elders have a definite advantage...about 4 lengths on average at a reference distance of 10fl. Many, when comparing the past greats, forget about this fact. Secretariat and Spectacular Bid is a good case in point. Those that consider Bid to be better than Red are remembering the 4yo Bid and the 3yo Secretariat. As 3yo to 3yo, Secretariat ran several lengths faster than Bid on average. As to the chances that Secretariat would have improved had he raced as a 4yo?...It works out like this. 70% of horses that go on to race as elders improve their average run times. Of the remaining 30%, many have injury related issues. This means that the odds that Red would improve is greater than 70 percent. Actually, he would have needed no improvement to defeat all but a very small number of the very best past greats. I apologize for getting off topic.

Not to belabor the "off topic"...

Distance Man'O War Secretariat Margin

6 furlongs 1:11 1/5 1:09 4/5 +7 lengths
1 mile 1:35 4/5 1:33 2/5 +12 lengths
1 1/16 1:44 4/5 1:42 4/5 +10 lengths
1 1/8 1:49 1/5 1:45 2/5 +19 lengths
1 3/16 1:56 3/5 1:53 2/5 +16 lengths
1 ¼ 2:01 4/5 1:59 flat +14 lengths
1 3/8 2:14 1/5 2:12 1/5 +10 lengths
1 1/2 2:28 4/5 2:24 flat +24 lengths
1 5/8 2:40 4/5 2:37 4/5

Now back to "The most talented 3yo since the 90's"

boswd 09-22-2006 11:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Downthestretch55
Not to belabor the "off topic"...

Distance Man'O War Secretariat Margin

6 furlongs 1:11 1/5 1:09 4/5 +7 lengths
1 mile 1:35 4/5 1:33 2/5 +12 lengths
1 1/16 1:44 4/5 1:42 4/5 +10 lengths
1 1/8 1:49 1/5 1:45 2/5 +19 lengths
1 3/16 1:56 3/5 1:53 2/5 +16 lengths
1 ¼ 2:01 4/5 1:59 flat +14 lengths
1 3/8 2:14 1/5 2:12 1/5 +10 lengths
1 1/2 2:28 4/5 2:24 flat +24 lengths
1 5/8 2:40 4/5 2:37 4/5

Now back to "The most talented 3yo since the 90's"

Point Given

Bold Reasoning 09-22-2006 11:32 AM

Raw talent: Holy Bull; Accomplishment: A.P. Indy; Potential: Bernardini

Sightseek 09-22-2006 11:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bold Reasoning
Raw talent: Holy Bull; Accomplishment: A.P. Indy; Potential: Bernardini

I know this is all opinions, so what makes you think Holy Bull had more raw talent than Bernardini?


You're Accomplishment selection could make for another very interesting topic; What sire has the most combined accomplishments? (sire & individual race record)


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