Downthestretch55 |
09-22-2006 11:29 AM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by sham
You get only agreement from me. Secretariat also grades-out as the best 3yo in every analysis I have done. His closest competitor is Man O'War and they were pretty much even in my opinion. My data base is limited to only horses that raced in the US since 1900. I have no idea how the horses stack-up Euros vs. US for example. The best female...Ruffian...and it's not even close as to 2nd best among the ladies. I also don't compare 3yos to the 4&up group. Elders have a definite advantage...about 4 lengths on average at a reference distance of 10fl. Many, when comparing the past greats, forget about this fact. Secretariat and Spectacular Bid is a good case in point. Those that consider Bid to be better than Red are remembering the 4yo Bid and the 3yo Secretariat. As 3yo to 3yo, Secretariat ran several lengths faster than Bid on average. As to the chances that Secretariat would have improved had he raced as a 4yo?...It works out like this. 70% of horses that go on to race as elders improve their average run times. Of the remaining 30%, many have injury related issues. This means that the odds that Red would improve is greater than 70 percent. Actually, he would have needed no improvement to defeat all but a very small number of the very best past greats. I apologize for getting off topic.
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Not to belabor the "off topic"...
Distance Man'O War Secretariat Margin
6 furlongs 1:11 1/5 1:09 4/5 +7 lengths
1 mile 1:35 4/5 1:33 2/5 +12 lengths
1 1/16 1:44 4/5 1:42 4/5 +10 lengths
1 1/8 1:49 1/5 1:45 2/5 +19 lengths
1 3/16 1:56 3/5 1:53 2/5 +16 lengths
1 ¼ 2:01 4/5 1:59 flat +14 lengths
1 3/8 2:14 1/5 2:12 1/5 +10 lengths
1 1/2 2:28 4/5 2:24 flat +24 lengths
1 5/8 2:40 4/5 2:37 4/5
Now back to "The most talented 3yo since the 90's"
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