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-   -   Does Mine That Bird Win Again? (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=31008)

dalakhani 08-02-2009 09:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SniperSB23
yeah they are
You guys are right. They were grade 1's back then. One of the races went from grade 1 to no longer exists and the other is some weird grade 3 now.

Either way, 5 straight grade 1's. Invasor is one of the great champions of all time.

dalakhani 08-02-2009 09:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by philcski
Paralysis by analysis... she ran a mile in 1:34 1/5 without urging when the other stakes mile splits were 1:37 1/5, 1:37 1/5, 1:37 4/5, 1:36 3/5, and 1:36 3/5. It was another incredible performance from the best horse in the world.



Those were wicked fractions. Check the other races on the card. Summer Bird was running second either way, he's probably the #2 or #3 horse in this crop anyways...
He forced those fractions. If he doesnt come up on the inside, maybe munnings relaxes and maybe rachel sits right off of him until the stretch. No?

parsixfarms 08-02-2009 09:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dalakhani
So you think he should have taken way off the pace and closed into what would have been pretty soft fractions on that track?
Summer Bird had no business being where Desormeaux placed him, especially with how bad the inside part of the track was today. They went 22.4 and 46.3. On a typical Monmouth day, those might be considered soft fractions. On today's sloppy track, that was not a "soft" pace.

SniperSB23 08-02-2009 09:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dalakhani
You guys are right. They were grade 1's back then. One of the races went from grade 1 to no longer exists and the other is some weird grade 3 now.

Either way, 5 straight grade 1's. Invasor is one of the great champions of all time.
The Suburban Handicap is some weird grade 3 now? We have a winner for most ridiculous post of the day, didn't think Arlington Jim would be topped.

dalakhani 08-02-2009 09:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SniperSB23
The Suburban Handicap is some weird grade 3 now? We have a winner for most ridiculous post of the day, didn't think Arlington Jim would be topped.
relax. Its a grade 2 now won the last two years by the indomitable frost giant and the even greater dry martini.

Is it still a grade 1?

philcski 08-02-2009 09:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dalakhani
He forced those fractions. If he doesnt come up on the inside, maybe munnings relaxes and maybe rachel sits right off of him until the stretch. No?
And then what changes in the order of finish? Rachel still wins by as much as she pleases, and Munnings and Summer Bird battle for 2nd. I thought both of them ran really well anyways, Munnings stretching out to a distance his trainer didn't think he could get and Summer Bird doing something different by staying close to the pace and on the inside which was the worst part of the track.

dalakhani 08-02-2009 09:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by philcski
And then what changes in the order of finish? Rachel still wins by as much as she pleases, and Munnings and Summer Bird battle for 2nd. I thought both of them ran really well anyways, Munnings stretching out to a distance his trainer didn't think he could get and Summer Bird doing something different by staying close to the pace and on the inside which was the worst part of the track.
Agreed. Very impressed with all three. Im still waiting to see that full field pitting Rachel against Zenyatta.

boswd 08-02-2009 09:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dalakhani
You guys are right. They were grade 1's back then. One of the races went from grade 1 to no longer exists and the other is some weird grade 3 now.

Either way, 5 straight grade 1's. Invasor is one of the great champions of all time.

Yeah the Suburban droped a Grade to a II, I have no idea why and it's a very historical race and what happend to the Pimlico Special is just a damn shame. That race was a piece of Horse Racing Americana.

freddymo 08-02-2009 09:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by parsixfarms
I'm not suggesting that she's not a special filly, but isn't everyone getting a bit carried away? Putting today's race in context, she had exactly two horses to beat. The first was Munnings, a legitimate sprinter with whom Pletcher was taking a shot by running in a stallion-making race on a typically speed-favoring oval. When the rains came, Pletcher didn't get the track he was looking for, and over which Munnings was not likely to carry his speed 9F (and it will now be back to the original plan and the King's Bishop).

The second horse to beat was Summer Bird, who received a highly questionable ride from Desormeaux. Not only did Desormeaux take this horse out of his normal style of running, but he rushed up on the worst part of the race track. Off that trip, he'll be tough in the Travers, but he had no shot today.

Rachel got a perfect stalking trip on the best part of the race track. Since most media types declared that, if she won the Haskell (a premise that I don't agree with), she'd lock up HOY, I'm now sure that her connections will take the path of least resistance. I'd bet that she has two more races this year: the Personal Ensign and Beldame.

You know all of what you posted is 100% valid.. Sometimes you can only beat who they put on the track in front of you. I can't suggest that she had a Rags to Riches type Santa Anita race.. DrugS can post all the specifics but we realized Rags was extraordinary when she crushed on a super wide speed favoring surface one day.. I think Rachel is beating anything and everything that they put in front of her. I doubt Zenyatta offers much of a challenge and nothing in the handicap division appears to be overwhelming either. Seriously it's not a knock against her that nothing seems on or at her abilty level to date. Plus the BSF figs appear to be going forward.. What can she do try the turf and go in the Arc? lol

parsixfarms 08-02-2009 09:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by boswd
Yeah the Suburban droped a Grade to a II, I have no idea why and it's a very historical race and what happend to the Pimlico Special is just a damn shame. That race was a piece of Horse Racing Americana.
It's because of the impact of the Dubai World Cup, plus the trainers' desire to have 4-6 weeks between races. The Foster and Whitney are now the two principle Eastern handicap races during the summer. The Iselin is another handicap race that essentially disappeared.

dalakhani 08-02-2009 09:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by boswd
Yeah the Suburban droped a Grade to a II, I have no idea why and it's a very historical race and what happend to the Pimlico Special is just a damn shame. That race was a piece of Horse Racing Americana.
It just doesnt draw the same fields as it use to. the last few runnings have been a joke. When was the last "good" suburban?

For the record, i think MTB is a nice little horse and will certainly win a few. I just don't think he has a chance to be any more than that.

SniperSB23 08-02-2009 09:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by parsixfarms
It's because of the impact of the Dubai World Cup, plus the trainers' desire to have 4-6 weeks between races. The Foster and Whitney are now the two principle Eastern handicap races during the summer. The Iselin is another handicap race that essentially disappeared.
I just don't understand how based on the last three years you could possibly keep the Foster a G1 while downgrading the Suburban. Both had a HOY win once in the past three years. The other two winners of the Foster were Seek Gold and Flashy Bull. The other two winners of the Suburban were Political Force and Frost Giant. Can you really say that the Foster was deserving of remaining a G1 while the Suburban had to be downgraded on the basis of the last three years?

boswd 08-02-2009 09:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dalakhani
It just doesnt draw the same fields as it use to. the last few runnings have been a joke. When was the last "good" suburban?

For the record, i think MTB is a nice little horse and will certainly win a few. I just don't think he has a chance to be any more than that.

The last good Suburban? Well that would be the one Invasor won;)


In regards to MTB, again we'll see, but I think I agree with you, he just has that air about him. Will grab a good one from time to time but ehhh.

I'll wait until after the Travers. I think MTB will take to this track.

Only time will tell.

parsixfarms 08-02-2009 09:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by freddymo
You know all of what you posted is 100% valid.. Sometimes you can only beat who they put on the track in front of you. I can't suggest that she had a Rags to Riches type Santa Anita race.. DrugS can post all the specifics but we realized Rags was extraordinary when she crushed on a super wide speed favoring surface one day.. I think Rachel is beating anything and everything that they put in front of her. I doubt Zenyatta offers much of a challenge and nothing in the handicap division appears to be overwhelming either. Seriously it's not a knock against her that nothing seems on or at her abilty level to date. Plus the BSF figs appear to be going forward.. What can she do try the turf and go in the Arc? lol
I agree, but today I guy said to me this afternoon that Rachel's better than Ruffian. Now, I don't know what Ruffian beat (before my time), but I do know that the fields that Rachel has beaten don't stack up to what Winning Colors defeated in the Derby (Forty Niner, Risen Star, Private Terms, Seeking the Gold, etc.) or what Rags to Riches defeated in the Belmont (Curlin, Hard Spun).

While I think that Rachel's connections deserve credit for running her against the boys, unless they run her in the Travers, which I highly doubt, they will have opted for the more opportunistic spot each time they tried the boys. Under the circumstances, the Preakness was an easier task than the Belmont, and the Haskell a softer assignment than the Travers. It's a shame that she won't face Zenyatta in a fairly run race.

boswd 08-02-2009 09:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by parsixfarms
It's because of the impact of the Dubai World Cup, plus the trainers' desire to have 4-6 weeks between races. The Foster and Whitney are now the two principle Eastern handicap races during the summer. The Iselin is another handicap race that essentially disappeared.
Yeah same thing as the Breeders Cup. As much as I love and think the sport deserves a day like the BC, I think it has ruined alot of great races, trainers want more time between races, don't want to push them too hard, will avoid competition all just for that one day.

parsixfarms 08-02-2009 09:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SniperSB23
I just don't understand how based on the last three years you could possibly keep the Foster a G1 while downgrading the Suburban. Both had a HOY win once in the past three years. The other two winners of the Foster were Seek Gold and Flashy Bull. The other two winners of the Suburban were Political Force and Frost Giant. Can you really say that the Foster was deserving of remaining a G1 while the Suburban had to be downgraded on the basis of the last three years?
If based on the past three years, neither is probably deserving of Grade I status. That being said, my sense is that the weakness of the Foster winners is a reflection of the weakness in the handicap division; the weakness of the Suburban winners is a reflection of a race that has fallen out of favor.

SniperSB23 08-02-2009 09:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by parsixfarms
If based on the past three years, neither is probably deserving of Grade I status. That being said, my sense is that the weakness of the Foster winners is a reflection of the weakness in the handicap division; the weakness of the Suburban winners is a reflection of a race that has fallen out of favor.
It's a pretty sad state of racing when there is exactly one 10 furlong Grade 1 left for open competition on the dirt. There are more 10 furlong G1's restricted to 3yo fillies on the dirt.

parsixfarms 08-02-2009 09:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by boswd
The last good Suburban? Well that would be the one Invasor won;)
Actually, the Suburban that Invasor won was a dismal edition. The last "good Suburban," relative to what was in the handicap division, was probably the 2004 edition won by Peace Rules.

parsixfarms 08-02-2009 09:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SniperSB23
It's a pretty sad state of racing when there is exactly one 10 furlong Grade 1 left for open competition on the dirt. There are more 10 furlong G1's restricted to 3yo fillies on the dirt.
And the CCA Oaks is another historic race that is probably no longer deserving of its Grade I status.

freddymo 08-02-2009 09:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by parsixfarms
And the CCA Oaks is another historic race that is probably no longer deserving of its Grade I status.
I am not sure the tiarra needs to be deleted from the future. Just because it had a suspect field doesn't mean you toss the baby out with the bath water


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