Derby Trail Forums - 4/21: Derby Works & Notes

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CSC	04-22-2009 07:52 AM

I'm not a big Tomlinson guy, but how did they come up with such a low distance Tomlinson for Quality Road? The only other Derby Contender that I can recall with such a low rating was Medaglia D'oro at 265.

VOL JACK

04-22-2009 08:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Chic Anderson thought Prince Thou Art looked great....until deep stretch.

To suggest that Pioneer of the Nile " answered all questions " about his ability to handle the dirt with his work today is a pretty surprising thing to do. Come on, turf horses work well on the dirt all the time, but you can only tell for certain if a horse will handle the dirt if he ( or she ) is under raceday pressures. I'm not saying he won't handle the surface.....but I'm shocked that anybody would say he is certain to after today's stroll.

Exactly....Same thing for a dirt horse working over the poly, or an off track.

CSC	04-22-2009 08:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

How dappled was Prince Thou Art? ;)

Is it possible for a horse like PotN to work as well as he did and have an issue with the surface on race day or is there a point where the work is actually indicative? It seems like excuses from synthetic horses happen every year where we think things are gonna maybe work out and then on the day, not so much. Could it just be that they handled it just fine as their works suggested and weren't that good in the Derby on their own merit/lackthereof? Does it also matter that they soup it up for the big day versus this work where it looks like the surface just got slower over the day?

This is an interesting point, perhaps we should look at all factors and not just the one angle.

slotdirt

04-22-2009 08:11 AM

Just for what it's worth, all things considered, Colonel John's Derby wasn't all bad last year, was it?

CSC	04-22-2009 08:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Just for what it's worth, all things considered, Colonel John's Derby wasn't all bad last year, was it?

Until a horse wins going from synth to dirt, I guess we will have these questions. Remember it wasn't too long ago where some didn't believe a horse could win the derby off just 2 preps until Street Sense did it.

slotdirt

04-22-2009 08:40 AM

Or off a five week layoff, or off fewer than four career starts, or as a NY-bred. We've been all about bustin' myths lately.

CSC	04-22-2009 08:45 AM

Derby myths...dosage index, 3 prep rule, 5 week train up...synth?

The Indomitable DrugS

04-22-2009 09:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC

I'm not a Tomlinson guy ... but QR is a big horse who certainly has outrun his pedigree.

His sire was a speed sprinter and his dam would stop to an absolute walk after running five furlongs.

Even though the numbers say Elusive Quality offspring are much better sprinting - he does somehow have a Kentucky Derby winner in Smarty Jones and a Breeders Cup Classic winner in Raven's Pass.

slotdirt

04-22-2009 09:52 AM

Is Quality Road's dam not a full to Ajina? I don't think it's beyond the realm of possibility that his bottom line is stamina-oriented.

Linny

04-22-2009 10:09 AM

Though EQ was speed, his own damsire was Hero's Honor, a stamina influence from the outstanding stamina (and turf) based program of Paul Mellon. Mellon was a thoughful and methodical breeder and whose success was all but unrivaled.

If EQ can get a Derby winner from a daughter of Smile, I have to think he can get one from a daughter of Strawberry Road.

The Indomitable DrugS

04-22-2009 10:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Is Quality Road's dam not a full to Ajina? I don't think it's beyond the realm of possibility that his bottom line is stamina-oriented.

Yeah - that's been mentioned here a ton of times already. Half to Rob's Spirit as well.

It's still a pedigree much better suited for a sprinter/miler than a classic distance horse. The numbers are so lopsided with EQ that if he was bred to Better than Honour I wouldn't expect the horse to be as good routing as sprinting until the horse proves it.

The Indomitable DrugS

04-22-2009 10:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Linny

If EQ can get a Derby winner from a daughter of Smile,

The dam of Smarty Jones was a better router than sprinter.

Here's one of the rides no doubt from Tony Black's scrapbook - when he got SJ's dam beat in a 9f stake at the very tail end of her career. The chart caller even mentions he had her stuck on a dead rail .. she's toiling and all of a sudden surges when he finally gets her out.

CSC	04-22-2009 11:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Yeah Tomlinson's are useless half the time IMO, I'm not sure how the stats are compiled but would a horse that is able to route at a lesser track count as the same at a higher quality track when compiling the numbers. Same for the turf and slop numbers...Horses outperforming their breeding is an interesting topic, if I am not mistaken wasn't Holy Bull a freak, by Great Above who was only a modest sire. Surely there was no indication he would turn out to be the horse he was.

jms62

04-22-2009 12:26 PM

Any word yet on whether we will have 10 cent Supers on Derby day...

hockey2315

04-22-2009 01:19 PM

I'm pretty sure they'll be offered. . . that was announced a while ago. . .

zippyneedsawin

04-22-2009 03:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I'm pretty sure they'll be offered. . . that was announced a while ago. . .

As I recall last year, they offered 10 cent supers on every race EXCEPT the KY Derby. I'd be glad if they decided to include the derby itself this year.

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