Just a few things...
1. What Lawyer Ron/Hard Spun does pacewise may be altered by the prescence of Mr. Umphrey and Rudy R. (assuming Diamond Stripes goes)
2. Personally I give Hard Spun almost no chance to win this race if all the probables go, regardless of pace, regardless of trips...
3. As I mentioned to Drugs before in another thread, Monmouth only gets one chance at hosting a Breeders Cup and if there are a parade of wire to wire winners on an obviously biased surface, they won't get another no matter how they handles the crowd, traffic, etc. Plus the fact that the races will be run in a different climate than the summer may alter how the track plays.
4. Post Positions may play a big role in who does what early in the race...

Their track has had a big speed bias most of this year, hasn't it? I don't really see why they should change it just to suit some of the more fancied runners. If Monmouth have had a speed bias for most of the year, the trainers will surely know what to expect.

What sort of weather can be expected in Monmouth later this month? If they are due for rain or very cold weather, there is every chance the track will quicken up even more.

I really haven't got a strong view on the race yet, but i do think it will revolve around what Hard Spun manages to do with Lawyer Ron (or the other way around).

Being a summer track, there has never been any races run at Monmouth past the 1st week of September. Since it is so close to the ocean, the water tables and tides often can be a factor in the surface.

Monmouth officials have said they expect the track to play fairly which would be directly opposite of how the dirt plays during the hot weather. So naturally you would expect them to try to avoid a speed bias. The days before may offer a hint, especially if speed is not holding.

You have to understand that if a bunch of supposedly inferior speed types win all of Breeders Cup races, Monmouth will never get another shot at a BC. Since they are using the Breeders Cup as the focal point of a long campaign to get help from the state of NJ, they are going to want as little controversy as possible.

Just watched the overhead of the Derby and the Preakness again. For some reason, I gained just a little bit more respect for what Street Sense was able to do in those races. Now, there is every possibility that he hasn't progressed in the same manner as the others have. I don't think he has. I don't see him finishing better than third.....which means Hard Spun can't be any better than fourth.