Derby Trail Forums

Derby Trail Forums (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/index.php)
-   The Paddock (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=2)
-   -   Rags to Riches/Belmont try? (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=12667)

Scurlogue Champ 05-08-2007 03:32 PM

Coolmore doesn't need Street Cry getting a Triple Crown winner in his first crop.

Spoiler time.

I wouldn't be surprised if the entire American arm of Coolmore shows up.


I am repeating this information, by the way. Heard it somewhere else

somerfrost 05-08-2007 03:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid
She's got the best 12-furlong pedigree of any of his 3-year-olds and may be faster than any of them too. If that's the case, why not send her?

She's no Tanya imo!

Cannon Shell 05-08-2007 03:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid
She's got the best 12-furlong pedigree of any of his 3-year-olds and may be faster than any of them too. If that's the case, why not send her?

I agree. It is actually a "sporting" move. She has nothing to lose. Why not?

somerfrost 05-08-2007 03:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by somerfrost
She's no Tanya imo!

I admit, she's got a nice distance pedigree...mom produced Jazil and top is good with AP Indy but no filly has ever won the Belmont at 12 furlongs...OK, Ruthless won at 13f in the first running but barely and against only 3 others, quality unknown. If I had a top filly, I'd wait until fall to try the boys. Just my preference. A lot to lose and little to gain by running her in the Belmont imo!

knickslions2 05-08-2007 03:39 PM

Street Sense will smoke her in the Belmont

ateamstupid 05-08-2007 03:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by somerfrost
I admit, she's got a nice distance pedigree...mom produced Jazil and top is good with AP Indy but no filly has ever won the Belmont at 12 furlongs...OK, Ruthless won at 13f in the first running but barely and against only 3 others, quality unknown. If I had a top filly, I'd wait until fall to try the boys. Just my preference. A lot to lose and little to gain by running her in the Belmont imo!

A lot to lose and little to gain? Are you kidding me? She could significantly improve her broodmare value, could get Pletcher a TC win with a filly, could REALLY cement the Eclipse.. What the hell is there to lose?

Cannon Shell 05-08-2007 03:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by somerfrost
If I had a top filly, I'd wait until fall to try the boys. Just my preference. A lot to lose and little to gain by running her in the Belmont imo!

So you would wait until the boys matured and got better before you took them on? The gap gets larger as the horses get older.

What does she have to lose by running in the Belmont?

Cannon Shell 05-08-2007 03:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid
A lot to lose and little to gain? Are you kidding me? She could significantly improve her broodmare value, could get Pletcher a TC win with a filly, could REALLY cement the Eclipse.. What the hell is there to lose?

Her broodmare value is moot because there is only one guy who could afford her now other than her current owners and there is zero chance that Tabor and co. would let him have her.

But it would be a historic win if she won

somerfrost 05-08-2007 03:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by somerfrost
I admit, she's got a nice distance pedigree...mom produced Jazil and top is good with AP Indy but no filly has ever won the Belmont at 12 furlongs...OK, Ruthless won at 13f in the first running but barely and against only 3 others, quality unknown. If I had a top filly, I'd wait until fall to try the boys. Just my preference. A lot to lose and little to gain by running her in the Belmont imo!


I can understand why Pletcher may be considering it though, her PF was better than Street Sense's (as I noted in the Ky Oaks thread), in fact...her's was the best in the Oaks since 1999 when Roman started the calculations:
Rags...-64
Lemons Forever...-36
Summerly...-30
Ashado...-59
Bird Town...-46
Farda Amiga...-49
Flute...-62
Secret Status...-51
Silverbulletday...-52
Still, a rough place to take on the colts!

somerfrost 05-08-2007 03:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid
A lot to lose and little to gain? Are you kidding me? She could significantly improve her broodmare value, could get Pletcher a TC win with a filly, could REALLY cement the Eclipse.. What the hell is there to lose?


Yeah, broodmare value is rather moot cause of her ownership...what to lose? When you have a champion, the last thing you want is a bad beating! A filly can beat the boys, Lady's Secret and others proved that, but if it was my horse...I'd pick a better spot! True, if she wins, she makes history but it's a huge gamble imo!

Skip away 05-08-2007 03:56 PM

Somerfrost, Todd knows he has one horse, okay maybe 2 horses he will have to run lights out to beat- SS and Curlin. Neither have run a race that is miles above Rags. SS seems to only have run HUGE at Churchill. Curlin is still a work in progress. Why not try her now and avoid horses like Invasor and Premium Tap? Her pedigree screams yes and she barely broke a sweat in what was merely a public workout. The time is now and I think Todd is going to be grinning after this race with the Derby a mere bad memory.

Cannon Shell 05-08-2007 04:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by somerfrost
Yeah, broodmare value is rather moot cause of her ownership...what to lose? When you have a champion, the last thing you want is a bad beating! A filly can beat the boys, Lady's Secret and others proved that, but if it was my horse...I'd pick a better spot! True, if she wins, she makes history but it's a huge gamble imo!

I think that this is a pretty weak group of colts and very few have breeding that suggests that they will relish the distance. She has enough speed to get the right trip and will catch the best colts coming off of 2 hard efforts and coming back on short rest. If she loses then she can resume beating up on fillies in the Test/Alabama. Plus Pletcher will make his other owners happy by getting Octave a grade 1 win in the Acorn or Mother Goose without having to mess with Rags.

AeWingnut 05-08-2007 04:05 PM

Silverbulletday

Skip away 05-08-2007 04:06 PM

Exactly Canon, but Todd wont run her in the Test, too short for her. Her only race this summer after the Belmont will be the Alabama. Then she runs once at Belmont, most likely against the fillies, then its on to Monmouth for the BC, again most likely in the filly & mare race.

Thoroughbred Fan 05-08-2007 04:20 PM

Somer stop being such a wuss. It seems racing can't make anyone happy. If horses dodge one another, we cry about not getting to see the matchups we want. Then ,if someone does something "sporting" (good word for it Cannon)you're already calling them dumb for trying.

She can clearly beat the fillies without a top effort. Racing doesn't need another filly who picks her spots to retire with a nearly pristine record (Azeri, Ashado, etc), they need something over the top. A big G1 win by a filly over males would be a huge boost to the sport. Either way, if she runs, I'll actually be rooting for Pletcher. I can't believe I just said that.

somerfrost 05-08-2007 04:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AeWingnut
Silverbulletday


Exactly...Silverbulletday was considered equal to or superior to the 3yo colts, she tried the 1999 Belmont went off at 5-1 and finished a tired 7th! She had a good turn of speed and set the pace without being challenged...

witchdoctor 05-08-2007 04:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid
A lot to lose and little to gain? Are you kidding me? She could significantly improve her broodmare value, could get Pletcher a TC win with a filly, could REALLY cement the Eclipse.. What the hell is there to lose?

Wonder if that what the owners of Ruffian were thinking in her match race with Foolish pleasure?

Thoroughbred Fan 05-08-2007 04:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by somerfrost
Exactly...Silverbulletday was considered equal to or superior to the 3yo colts, she tried the 1999 Belmont went off at 5-1 and finished a tired 7th! She had a good turn of speed and set the pace without being challenged...

That has nothing to do with how RTR might run.

ELA 05-08-2007 04:25 PM

If you have a filly and want to try and tackle the colts -- the sooner the better, before the boys mature. I think broodmare value here is completely irrelevant -- she is not for sale, will never be, and her foal will not be for sale. Never say never, but the only thing that will change that is a complete crash of Coolmore, or if they look to take on outside partners, money, etc. and decide to put something through the ring. They wouldn't have to do that, but I guess they could.

As far as her pedigree "suggests" and her being by a Belmont winner, out of a mare who also produced a Belmont winner -- well, I forget the specifics, but two relatively famous quotes stick out in my mind. First, was the one that said "Mrs. Dempsey had nine sons and only one was a boxer" or something like that, LOL. Maybe it was Jack Johnson, I don't remember. And the second one was from my least favorite fighter Mike Tyson" -- he said "everyone has a plan, until they get hit"

Sure, they have nothing to lose, but that doesn't mean she's gonna win or even be competitive.

Eric


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 10:14 AM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.