FROM TRAVIS STONE

I wouldn't necessarily categorize Get Her Number as a closer. The horse has good tactical speed that hasn't been displayed in his 2 outings this year.

Javier Castellano kept a strong hold on the horse who was eager during the first half mile of the Rebel (which was off a 5-month layoff) and shuffled him back between horses down the backstretch. Started climbing a bit when taking kickback to the far turn. Got clobbered in the stretch.

In the Arkansas Derby he again found himself between horses early, got pinballed a bit heading into the first turn, then ended up ducking out sharply off heels entering the back stretch losing 2-3 lengths in the process.

Of course, if he can't handle being in and among traffic in 7-horse fields, none of the above should make one particularly optimistic in a 20-horse melee.

While based on strict running lines you can categorize Soup and Sandwich and Midnight Bourbon as "pressers/stalkers", neither horse has displayed the ability to willingly settle early and finish in a two turn race.

Soup and Sandwich's second start was a public workout between races. It was a 3-horse field and he was snatched up early going into the first turn. Made a decisive move on the far turn but never drew away and was all over the place in the stretch. In the Florida Derby with a big field and a loud crowd he broke like a shot and dueled with a Mott horse before pulling himself to the lead (mouth open, jock's feet on the dash board). Swept up entering the stretch by the winner and stayed on the wrong lead.

Midnight Bourbon set the pace or dueled in all 3 Louisiana races and basically stayed one-paced throughout. Those races were relatively slow early, too. He's a frontrunner, but he's also a slow frontrunner. A decidedly non-frontrunning CA colt shipped into the LA Derby (Hot Rod Charlie) and ended up setting the pace (with MB lapped right on him). In his 2yo races when outfooted early, he runs even worse, giving way in the stretch (Iroquois, Champagne).

Rock Your World hasn't settled early either. He was part of a 3-horse duel in his sprint debut. In the Pasadena Stakes, Commander Khai (who broke his maiden on the lead going 5f) ran off for the first 3/4s. Rock Your World sat in second but was not restrained by the rider, just looked like he couldn't keep up with the run-off. He had to come under a ride to reel him in. Despite his speed, Rock Your World has shown the ability to finish as he's had another gear in the final furlong in both his last two starts, which makes him more attractive than the other 2 if you like him. But if he does not go to the lead, there is no telling how he will react if restrained early or how he will handle kickback for several furlongs for the first time.

Caddo River:

It would be a real shame if Get Her Number is in the Derby and King Fury is kept out.

Why

How else is King Fury going to get a prep in for the Epsom Derby?

Good point

I like having McPeek in a big stakes race as opposed to Miller. But I think he’d be an interesting horse to use underneath if there is the expected hot pace and a wet track.

I just read your post about Get Her Number. Maybe I shouldn't have highlighted that horse specifically. He is probably a little better than I gave him credit for.

You can argue for either horse really, but at the end of the day both horses are being bumrushed into the race.

Last year, McPeek foolishly wheeled King Fury back off 12 days rest in the BC Juvenile after a decent score in a listed stakes (which was on the heels of a disastrous performance in the Breeder's Futurity). Then he ran back in the race he should have pointed toward all along and got his head ripped off there, too, in what proved to be a thoroughly weak race. Now after a layoff and decent score in a minor event he wants to waltz right into the Derby. He just throws stuff against the wall and once in a while it sticks...

As for Miller, he claims he's vaccinated against Derby fever and yet he had the horse on a ridiculously intense work pattern to make the Rebel Stakes (never mind the cross-country shipping involved). Got roughed up there, but didn't leave him at Oaklawn (even though he has a barn there), shipped back for the Arkansas Derby and got roughed up again, and now he'll have criss-crossed back and forth between CA-AR-KY 5 times in the past 6 weeks or so.

Both horses should await the Peter Pan if they want to progress and see out the year.

HOZIER back as AE, pushing KING FURY further down list based on stakes earnings.

Well said. Still, there are just two potential Derby horses that have shown they can run well in slop: King Fury and Essential Quality. If the track came up wet on May 1, I'd have to give King Fury a lot of consideration.

Agree to see all three of these horses as borderline speed and think Midnight Bourbon really wants the lead to be most effective when you look at his longer races. As indicated, of the 3 Rock Your World has the better ability to finish. Just my opinion but with Caddo River now in the mix I see some contention on the front end.

Great Derby coverage!
 

Steve,

As always your coverage of the lead-up to the Kentucky Derby is excellent. On Tuesday's show you had an excellent interview with Richard Migliore. In the course of your conversation you mentioned a kentuckyderby.com page where we could watch workouts. Could you please repeat the entire web address? I was on the road and could not make a note of of it.

Thanks and keep up the great work!

Thanks Cakes!

Does anyone have the numbers on a horse going 8+ weeks without a race and running in the Derby? I know the numbers aren’t good wondering just how bad they are.

Hypothetical question. If 5 horses qualified for that last year and one won would you say 1 for 5 or 1 for 1? Most times people look at stats like this it would be 1 for 5 so it always appears way worse than it is.

Good point. I would say 1 for 5, but I’d be curious to know how many improved from their prior race. I might have to go through each race and see.

I'm editing this post about Concert Tour. Twitter seemed to be abuzz about him today but it looks like he's been at Churchill since last week.

Yes. He's out every day during the Derby/Oaks session. He came here after the AR Derby.

Thanks. I think I'm giving too much attention to the twitterverse and some of the theories that are pushed on there.

As long as you don't go looking for pizzeria basements.

:D No worries about that. I don’t have a Parler account.

Add UAE Derby runner-up FRANCE GO DE INA to Preakness probables..

Now official.. DREAM SHAKE to Pat Day Mile; KING FURY runs..

The right move for Shaky for sure.

HEFTY DERBY/OAKS WORK TAB

LOUISVILLE, KY (Friday, April 23, 2021) – On a cool Kentucky morning, a total of 17 Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks horses put in their final timed workouts before next weekend’s editions of the $3 million Derby and $1.25 million Oaks.

The fastest move of the morning was a half-mile drill in :46.20 by Keepmeinmind with Dynamic One, one of four Derby workers for Todd Pletcher, having the second-fastest clocking of the 108 at the distance in :47.80.

Other Derby workers for Pletcher were Bourbonic (half-mile in :49.60) and Known Agenda and Sainthood (five furlongs together in 1:01.

Other Derby workers were Caddo River (five furlongs in 1:00.60), Helium (half-mile in :49.80), Soup and Sandwich (half-mile in :50), Hozier (six furlongs in 1:16) and Starrininmydreams (five furlongs in 1:00.20).

Headlining the Kentucky Oaks workers were the Brad Cox-trained duo of Travel Column and Coach, both of whom covered five furlongs in 1:00.40.

Other Oaks workers were Search Results (five furlongs in 1:02.60), Malathaat (half-mile in :48.40), Will’s Secret (half-mile in :48.20), Ava’s Grace (half-mile in :49.20) and Competitive Speed (five furlongs in 1:02.40).

Working at 5:30 at Keeneland was Hidden Stash, who covered five furlongs in 1:00.60.

SATURDAY DRILLS

Scheduled to work at Churchill Downs Saturday morning for the Derby are Essential Quality, Mandaloun, Highly Motivated, Super Stock and King Fury. Scheduled to work for the Oaks are Crazy Beautiful and Millefeuille.

Other works involving Kentucky Derby hopefuls are scheduled on three fronts Saturday. Slated to work at Santa Anita are Rock Your World and Hot Rod Charlie; at San Luis Rey will be Get Her Number, and, at Keeneland, Like the King.

Maracuja is scheduled for her final Oaks work at Belmont Park.

Which Derby is Keepmeinmind prepping for?

As mentioned by Darren Rogers on the Inside Churchill show yesterday, BROOKLYN STRONG is now being considered for entry.. Jumps ahead of Starrininmydreams..

His Wood effort should put him right there

If NYRA opens the Big Apple Triple races to "NY sired horses" in addition to "horses bred in NY", could be one hell of a series with Brooklyn Strong and Keepmeinmind.

Rock Your World supposedly had a really good workout. Going to see if I can find the video.

17th...still looking for latest

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2JUcwlKfbHY

this AM

Thanks.

Get Her Number passing Derby; Keepmeinmind now in..
 

Yikes..