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-   -   BEYER: Defining Zenyatta's historical role (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=38617)

Merlinsky 10-01-2010 12:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 701656)
Gorgeous is one of the forgotten truly great horses of the last 25 years or so.

When she was on her game, there aren't many fillies/mares that would have beaten her.

During Book 1 of the Keeneland sale I kept seeing her name pop up. Her genes were well represented.

The Indomitable DrugS 10-01-2010 05:06 AM

The new leader in the clubhouse .....

Michael Manoj Tolaney (whoever he is)

Quote:

Look, Andy Beyer is sour grapes because he knows my good friend, Ashok Sinha called his bluff and disproved his precious Beyer rating system way back in 2002. The individuals who pro-rate the roughly 8 point discrepancy are printing money, ...esp. in the P-6 sequence where overlays are routine at Eastern tracks. Case in point: Sarava's 99 Beyer prior to the Belmont was in actuality a 107, that's correct, must adjust figures of horses going from G3 to G1 because serious flaw in Beyer's methodology is he penalizes class and over-rewards sprinters/raw final times. Finally, he never accounts for runaway winners at lower levels, eg - Grade 3, where Sarava was a 12-length runaway winner in his prep for the 2002 Belmont. I am glad Beyer does not have a clue............. we cashed a $142 horse in the 2002 Belmont, and the exacta w 16-1 MDO as an added bonus or ancillary benefit. How does my downgrading Andy Beyer to junk bond status........... relate to Zenyatta, well it doesn't.................... but the bottom line is the guy is routinely wrong more than he is right. Where is his MBA, PhD or degree in advanced Math?? What qualifies or his rating system as gospel? Hmmm, exactly. I freely admit I am a Zenyatta Fan, even though I needed Gio Ponti for a P5 in last year's Breeders Cup Classic, i had to play Gio Ponti because as usual, Beyer lowballed his figures. Zenyatta has never lost, can Andy Beyer say the same? I think NOT. -MT

Danzig 10-01-2010 06:40 AM

i wonder if this guy keeps track of his losses?

dalakhani 10-01-2010 07:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antitrust32 (Post 701317)
& the best PR machine since the 70's??? LOL thats why so many non racing fans are following Z's career :zz:

No horse in the past decade holds a candle to Smarty Jones as far as PR goes.

Agreed

johnny pinwheel 10-01-2010 08:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tiggerv (Post 701414)
Why publish a generic "Zenyatta is overrated" article the day after Rachel retires? How about writing about the historical place of the retired horse instead of the horse with 2 races left? I know that Beyer is in LA and Z runs this weekend, but save the Zenyatta historical role article until after she finishes racing.

amen. no, hes not biased either after his numbers said zenyatta was slow last year....oh wait a minute, then she won the BC classic. must be the surface...oh, the horse won two graded stakes on the dirt too.....that doesn't count. it almost makes me want her to win at churchill. just to read what kind of garbage makes her not "historical" after that....what a joke of an article....did it even have a point? i noticed the trend that these articles usually come up after his numbers get tanked or he has to justify them. if she was not one of the best horses of the last decade.....who is andy? i thought you followed this game...lol....lol,

Indian Charlie 10-01-2010 08:18 AM

Expecting rational discourse from Zenyattards is much like expecting an intelligent, non emotional conversation between a rational human being and a religious zealot who reacts to every undeniable fact with great outbursts of illogic and defensiveness.

Thunder Gulch 10-01-2010 09:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS (Post 701727)
The new leader in the clubhouse .....

Michael Manoj Tolaney (whoever he is)

That is rich.:tro::rolleyes:

Dahoss 10-01-2010 10:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel (Post 701742)
amen. no, hes not biased either after his numbers said zenyatta was slow last year....oh wait a minute, then she won the BC classic. must be the surface...oh, the horse won two graded stakes on the dirt too.....that doesn't count. it almost makes me want her to win at churchill. just to read what kind of garbage makes her not "historical" after that....what a joke of an article....did it even have a point? i noticed the trend that these articles usually come up after his numbers get tanked or he has to justify them. if she was not one of the best horses of the last decade.....who is andy? i thought you followed this game...lol....lol,

Do you ever have a point with your drivel?

goingtothewhip 10-01-2010 11:01 AM

Quote:

Probably she isn't;dirt and synthetics are so different that few horses are top-class on both. (The 0-for-43 record of horses making the transition from dirt to synthetics in the Santa Anita Breeders Cups laid to rest the cliché that "a good horse can run on anything."
Just off the top of my head: Looking at Lucky, I Want Revenge, Colonel John?
A few "slow" synthetic based horses that seemed to do alright making the transition to dirt.

Dahoss 10-01-2010 11:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by goingtothewhip (Post 701784)
Just off the top of my head: Looking at Lucky, I Want Revenge, Colonel John?
A few "slow" synthetic based horses that seemed to do alright making the transition to dirt.

What does your response have to do with the passage you quoted?

goingtothewhip 10-01-2010 11:20 AM

Quote:

dirt and synthetics are so different that few horses are top-class on both. (The 0-for-43 record of horses making the transition from dirt to synthetics in the Santa Anita Breeders Cups laid to rest the cliché that "a good horse can run on anything."
Those are 3 obvious examples of horses that are top class on both surfaces. If the surface is so divergent why were they able to transfer their form to dirt?

Dahoss 10-01-2010 11:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by goingtothewhip (Post 701797)
Those are 3 obvious examples of horses that are top class on both surfaces. If the surface is so divergent why were they able to transfer their form to dirt?

Colonel John wasn't top class on any surface and I'm not sure I Want Revenge was either. He was better on dirt, but top class? It's debateable.

Do you really think the surfaces aren't different in the way they play and how horses handle them?

goingtothewhip 10-01-2010 11:50 AM

Of course not, but to say that a horse isn't going to be as "potent" on dirt because of a breeder's cup stat that has dirt horses going 0-43 on synth is a very weak argument.

More to your point regarding surfaces, I think many are failing to realize that all of the synthetic surfaces (Hwood, Santa Anita, Del Mar) are extremely different in the way they play as they are different brand surfaces (cushion, pro ride hybrid, and polytrack respectively). To lump them all together under the synthetic moniker is misleading in many ways.

Kasept 10-01-2010 12:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by goingtothewhip (Post 701814)
More to your point regarding surfaces, I think many are failing to realize that all of the synthetic surfaces (Hwood, Santa Anita, Del Mar) are extremely different in the way they play as they are different brand surfaces (cushion, pro ride hybrid, and polytrack respectively). To lump them all together under the synthetic moniker is misleading in many ways.

Misleading? Who cares which brand of synthetic track any of them are? It's all moot since they're all going to be forgotten. The underlying point is that the entire synthetic track disaster is going to ultimately be regarded as a footnote in racing history, the way Tartan Track is for instance. That is at the core of Beyer's piece.

People that want to elevate results produced on synthetic tracks to the level of the previous century of racing history refuse to acknowledge certain facts. One is that a generation of horses bred to perform on racing's irrefutable main track surface were denied an opportunity to make their marks if they were forced to spend their career on synthetic surfaces (of any brand).

The second is that horses with previously established levels of achievement (or excellence) on racing's principal main track surface, were forced unrealistically and unfairly to try to succeed in two irrelevant Breeders' Cups held on the patchwork synthetic surface at Santa Anita in 2008-09.

And the central theme, and frustration, of those questioning Zenyatta's possible historical greatness, is that her connections denied her very real, plausible and myriad opportunities available to provide definition by irrefutable standards of how good she is/was... And as a frank aside, the fact that wild-eyed fans of hers cannot discern that nuance is what has now made her so unpalatable to those that legitimately question her achievements beyond the core performances that lend credence to how good a horse she has been.

miraja2 10-01-2010 12:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 701821)
Misleading? Who cares which brand of synthetic track any of them are? It's all moot since they're all going to be forgotten. The underlying point is that the entire synthetic track disaster is going to ultimately be regarded as a footnote in racing history, the way Tartan Track is for instance. That is at the core of Beyer's piece.

People that want to elevate results produced on synthetic tracks to the level of the previous century of racing history refuse to acknowledge certain facts. One is that a generation of horses bred to perform on racing's irrefutable main track surface were denied an opportunity to make their marks if they were forced to spend their career on synthetic surfaces (of any brand).

The second is that horses with previously established levels of achievement (or excellence) on racing's principal main track surface, were forced unrealistically and unfairly to try to succeed in two irrelevant Breeders' Cups held on the patchwork synthetic surface at Santa Anita in 2008-09.

And the central theme, and frustration, of those questioning Zenyatta's possible historical greatness, is that her connections denied her very real, plausible and myriad opportunities available to provide definition by irrefutable standards of how good she is/was... And as a frank aside, the fact that wild-eyed fans of hers cannot discern that nuance is what has now made her so unpalatable to those that legitimately question her achievements beyond the core performances that lend credence to how good a horse she has been.

:tro:

slotdirt 10-01-2010 01:05 PM

This thread needed that.

goingtothewhip 10-01-2010 01:08 PM

Feel the rage. LoL.

People that are wagering on the tracks in question probably care what type of synthetic surfaces they are dealing with. Thus my comment on using the generic term synthetic being misleading.

Sorry the fans and lack of a rigorous campaign has left a nasty taste on your palate, but the fact is neither have any bearing on how good she is. To let those factors sully your opinion of a horse seems kind of silly.

NTamm1215 10-01-2010 01:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by goingtothewhip (Post 701834)
Sorry the fans and lack of a rigorous campaign has left a nasty taste on your palate, but the fact is neither have any bearing on how good she is. To let those factors sully your opinion of a horse seems kind of silly.

How can we really have a gauge of how good she is historically, which is hardly an exercise I want to undertake, when she's had such a carefully planned, cookie-cutter campaign? Greatness needs to be defined by taking on the best, the most significant tests and proving yourself in those scenarios. A final campaign with 5 exhibitions and the Breeders' Cup Classic was hardly what I was looking for from her this year.

GPK 10-01-2010 01:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215 (Post 701835)
How can we really have a gauge of how good she is historically, which is hardly an exercise I want to undertake, when she's had such a carefully planned, cookie-cutter campaign? Greatness needs to be defined by taking on the best, the most significant tests and proving yourself in those scenarios. A final campaign with 5 exhibitions and the Breeders' Cup Classic was hardly what anyone with half a brain and a true love of the sport was looking for from her this year.

FTFY Nick

goingtothewhip 10-01-2010 01:25 PM

Quote:

How can we really have a gauge of how good she is historically, which is hardly an exercise I want to undertake, when she's had such a carefully planned, cookie-cutter campaign? Greatness needs to be defined by taking on the best, the most significant tests and proving yourself in those scenarios. A final campaign with 5 exhibitions and the Breeders' Cup Classic was hardly what I was looking for from her this year.
i can't really argue with any of that (pre fix).

I can understand questioning her place in history, but it seems the vast majority of opinions are now polarized. She is the best ever or a mere curiosity. I'm going to hold off till she is done before writing what i think in my diary.

PeteMugg 10-01-2010 01:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215 (Post 701835)
How can we really have a gauge of how good she is historically, which is hardly an exercise I want to undertake, when she's had such a carefully planned, cookie-cutter campaign? Greatness needs to be defined by taking on the best, the most significant tests and proving yourself in those scenarios. A final campaign with 5 exhibitions and the Breeders' Cup Classic was hardly what I was looking for from her this year.

Perhaps next year?:rolleyes:

hockey2315 10-01-2010 02:06 PM

Interesting use of the word "fast" in the title. . . I wonder if that was Andy's doing or an editor's.

Kasept 10-01-2010 02:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by goingtothewhip (Post 701834)
Feel the rage. LoL.

People that are wagering on the tracks in question probably care what type of synthetic surfaces they are dealing with. Thus my comment on using the generic term synthetic being misleading.

Sorry the fans and lack of a rigorous campaign has left a nasty taste on your palate, but the fact is neither have any bearing on how good she is. To let those factors sully your opinion of a horse seems kind of silly.

Congratulations on illustrating the point I was making perfectly with one more example of why no attempt to have a discussion of racing history or offer perspective on it is worthwhile when this particular topic is broached. It's a complete waste of energy on a group that has no interest in even attempting to understand the nuances of any element of the game, breed, races, racing surfaces, competition levels, or any other historic element that goes into comparisons of this nature.

Indian Charlie 10-01-2010 02:19 PM

I'm going to make up a bunch of bumper stickers reading "WWZD" and sell them at her last two starts.

How many will I need to make to assure I don't sell out?

Scav 10-01-2010 02:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 701860)
I'm going to make up a bunch of bumper stickers reading "WWZD" and sell them at her last two starts.

How many will I need to make to assure I don't sell out?

That is actually an unbelievable idea, you could get $5 for those, and make a killing. I would say you would need 2500.

Smooth Operator 10-01-2010 02:37 PM

Like I said before, just do some simple math:

17 (wins) + 1 (BCD win) + 1 (BCC win) + 1 (BCC dirt win) + 0 (losses) = LIVING LEGEND

goingtothewhip 10-01-2010 02:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 701859)
Congratulations on illustrating the point I was making perfectly with one more example of why no attempt to have a discussion of racing history or offer perspective on it is worthwhile when this particular topic is broached. It's a complete waste of energy on a group that has no interest in even attempting to understand the nuances of any element of the game, breed, races, racing surfaces, competition levels, or any other historic element that goes into comparisons of this nature.


.

Please don't waste any more of your energy. I'm not as impressed w/ your perspective as you seem to be.

Kasept 10-01-2010 02:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by goingtothewhip (Post 701871)
Please don't waste any more of your energy. I'm not as impressed w/ your perspective as you seem to be.

Don't worry, I won't. It's obvious you're completely incapable of a discussion on any portion of the topic.

Indian Charlie 10-01-2010 02:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Smooth Operator (Post 701869)
Like I said before, just do some simple math:

1000+ Zenyatta is great posts + 1 Zenyatta might lose in the BCC post + 1 non Zenyatta post + 2 really pathetic attempts at making up insulting nicknames = I AM A TARD

There you go again with the typos.

Rudeboyelvis 10-01-2010 03:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by goingtothewhip (Post 701834)
Feel the rage. LoL.

People that are wagering on the tracks in question probably care what type of synthetic surfaces they are dealing with. Thus my comment on using the generic term synthetic being misleading.

Sorry my pointless canard has left a nasty taste on your palate, but the fact is neither have any bearing on how good she is. To let those factors sully your opinion of a horse seems kind of silly.

FTFY

Steve hates pointless canards, by the way...

Danzig 10-01-2010 08:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 701821)
Misleading? Who cares which brand of synthetic track any of them are? It's all moot since they're all going to be forgotten. The underlying point is that the entire synthetic track disaster is going to ultimately be regarded as a footnote in racing history, the way Tartan Track is for instance. That is at the core of Beyer's piece.

People that want to elevate results produced on synthetic tracks to the level of the previous century of racing history refuse to acknowledge certain facts. One is that a generation of horses bred to perform on racing's irrefutable main track surface were denied an opportunity to make their marks if they were forced to spend their career on synthetic surfaces (of any brand).

The second is that horses with previously established levels of achievement (or excellence) on racing's principal main track surface, were forced unrealistically and unfairly to try to succeed in two irrelevant Breeders' Cups held on the patchwork synthetic surface at Santa Anita in 2008-09.

And the central theme, and frustration, of those questioning Zenyatta's possible historical greatness, is that her connections denied her very real, plausible and myriad opportunities available to provide definition by irrefutable standards of how good she is/was... And as a frank aside, the fact that wild-eyed fans of hers cannot discern that nuance is what has now made her so unpalatable to those that legitimately question her achievements beyond the core performances that lend credence to how good a horse she has been.

well said....

chucklestheclown 10-02-2010 05:02 AM

WTF? Keeneland, Del Mar, Hollywood, Arlington and Dubai have synthetic tracks. It DOES make a difference in knowing the differences between them. Anyone who doesn't think so should get their head examined...or not...like that other guy said, I'll just take your money.

JerseyJ 10-02-2010 11:11 AM

This is getting beyond the point of ridiculous with the Zenyattatards. It really is. The big issue is that while her zealots continue to call her the best ever without taking into account the circumstances under which she picked up her wins with. Except for two very weak editions of the Apple Blossom where obviously, she wasn't forced to run an exceptional race, she has run every race of her career on synthetic tracks, types of synthetics not withstanding because the synthetic track make-up has always seemd to cater towards the running style of Zenyatta which is to make that sweeping wide last move into the stretch, always more often successful on the synthetic tracks or turf than dirt.

Let's be honest here, she has never had to run on a track which really could prove her greatness or run against a field which was brought together that would prove how great she is. She has never had to deal with slow fractions on dirt that would put her up against it coming from off the pace. As an add on to this, she's never had to deal with a negative track bias as her running style picks up a positive bias out in So Cal on those synthetic tracks. Just look at Sinister Minister the one year in Keeneland in the Blue Grass. Was he a legitimate top class, G1 horse? Not a chance in hell and at any other track he's probably up the track in the Blue Grass. But on that one day he used his speed to ride the ridiculous bias to a dominating G1 victory because no one was going to catch that horse on that track on that day. We've never had a day where she's run where she's been up against a speed bias on a dirt track where front runners aren't coming back to the field, or where she's had to run down a top class horse on the dirt. Simply put she's never faced any adversity. It's equivalent to being a Major League caliber ballplayer who dominates AAA his whole career, gets called up to the Majors a few times, always hits well in his cups of coffee and yet continues to get sent down each year for higher regarded prospects.

knickslions2 10-02-2010 11:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JerseyJ (Post 702178)
This is getting beyond the point of ridiculous with the Zenyattatards. It really is. The big issue is that while her zealots continue to call her the best ever without taking into account the circumstances under which she picked up her wins with. Except for two very weak editions of the Apple Blossom where obviously, she wasn't forced to run an exceptional race, she has run every race of her career on synthetic tracks, types of synthetics not withstanding because the synthetic track make-up has always seemd to cater towards the running style of Zenyatta which is to make that sweeping wide last move into the stretch, always more often successful on the synthetic tracks or turf than dirt.

Let's be honest here, she has never had to run on a track which really could prove her greatness or run against a field which was brought together that would prove how great she is. She has never had to deal with slow fractions on dirt that would put her up against it coming from off the pace. As an add on to this, she's never had to deal with a negative track bias as her running style picks up a positive bias out in So Cal on those synthetic tracks. Just look at Sinister Minister the one year in Keeneland in the Blue Grass. Was he a legitimate top class, G1 horse? Not a chance in hell and at any other track he's probably up the track in the Blue Grass. But on that one day he used his speed to ride the ridiculous bias to a dominating G1 victory because no one was going to catch that horse on that track on that day. We've never had a day where she's run where she's been up against a speed bias on a dirt track where front runners aren't coming back to the field, or where she's had to run down a top class horse on the dirt. Simply put she's never faced any adversity. It's equivalent to being a Major League caliber ballplayer who dominates AAA his whole career, gets called up to the Majors a few times, always hits well in his cups of coffee and yet continues to get sent down each year for higher regarded prospects.

Ya she blows :zz:

JerseyJ 10-02-2010 11:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by knickslions2 (Post 702183)
Ya she blows :zz:

Yeah that's exactly what I said...reading comprehension might help.

knickslions2 10-02-2010 11:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JerseyJ (Post 702185)
Yeah that's exactly what I said...reading comprehension might help.

Oh I can comprehend it...I just can't believe an intelligent person drafted it

Indian Charlie 10-02-2010 11:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by knickslions2 (Post 702186)
Oh I can comprehend it...I just can't believe an intelligent person drafted it

Perhaps you should familiarize yourself with one.

knickslions2 10-02-2010 11:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 702187)
Perhaps you should familiarize yourself with one.

Well I always admire your work :)

miraja2 10-02-2010 11:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by knickslions2 (Post 702183)
Ya she blows :zz:

When will Zenyatta's legions of fans realize and accept that her supposed "detractors" also think she is a really good horse. Nobody is saying she "blows." I think EVERYBODY is impressed with her consistency and her ability to retain form year after year. She also deserves (and gets) credit for winning races on three different types of synthetic surfaces and dirt. A lot of good horses can't do that, and she can.

Okay fine. She's a really good horse. Nobody really disputes that.

It is only when people start saying she is one of the best ever that her supposed "detractors" rightfully begin to raise points against her.
There is a big range between "blows" and "one of the best ever." In my opinion, she fits somewhere in that range.

Indian Charlie 10-02-2010 11:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by knickslions2 (Post 702188)
Well I always admire your work :)

Whoever said I was intelligent!?

I almost never post anything longer than too sentences!


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