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The math of 29 feet for 2 seconds of 30MPH vs 40MPH is accurate, however, in case anybody was remotely interested. |
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It's 29.333333333 feet. |
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If the horse had simply been walled off for a bit and forced to gradually make his way to the outside (while drafting) without being forced to check, I think I could understand your point. But - to me - that doesn't look like what hapened to Ice Box. Wasn't he flat-out blocked off in the stretch and forced to steady for a moment in order to get around? I'm honestly and sincerely trying to understand your perspective here, but I just don't see how in the world something like that could have helped him. |
It didn't " help " him, you're right....it couldn't have, but I guess in Fatmanese he's trying make people realize that it's not necessarily cut and dried that it buried him either. It's worth exploring how it changed the race.
It would be great to have many alternate universes and see what would have actually happened under many different scenerios. |
If the argument, and I'm sure I'll be wrong, is that a horse who will ultimately attempt to rally into a race that unfolds in a layered scenario (a la most Derbies) runs into trouble as other horses are moving, it enables him to make that "last run" that often works best in said type of race.
Ice Box is almost always going to be a "last mover" type of horse and he's certainly going to need a layered race (pace that backs up, another horse that moves prematurely and/or collapses the race). I guess the only part of this argument that I'm unsure about is how we can say with certainty that he wouldn't have won the damn thing by three lengths had he been able to swing out just inside the 1/4 pole and make one sustained run down the middle. I probably can't be sure it wouldn't have worked by noting that Lookin at Lucky and Make Music For Me attempted basically that and both came up wanting. NT |
I agree Nick....with all sides.
The problem The Fat Man has here is sort of what he accuses others of doing, and we all do it, in that he hates Ice Box...so he's being a little stubborn. That's all fine, but the rub is how can he be so sure that this horse isn't improving, and might be a better horse ( a lot better ) than he was a few months ago. And, further, isn't it hard to argue that he rates to relish distance at least as much as any of these horses? Surely someone like the Fat Man, with extensive backstretch experience, has seen horses improve as they grow up. |
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Ice Box :26.35 :23.94 :24.03 :24.45 :26.10 Lezcano J 11.70 Paddy O'Prado :24.40 :23.84 :24.10 :25.69 :26.89 Desormeaux K J 12.30 Make Music for Me :26.86 :24.11 :23.69 :24.01 :26.59 Rosario J 30.00 Noble's Promise :23.62 :23.50 :24.06 :26.47 :27.82 Martinez W 24.90¨ Lookin At Lucky :25.84 :24.11 :24.11 :24.62 :26.95 Gomez G K 6.30 Dublin :24.74 :24.36 :23.74 :25.29 :27.60 Thompson T J 20.00 Stately Victor :25.42 :23.85 :24.08 :24.89 :27.69 Garcia Alan 20.20 Mission Impazible :23.24 :24.31 :24.34 :26.44 :27.95 Maragh R 16.70 Devil May Care :24.13 :23.77 :24.17 :25.86 :28.57 Velazquez J R 10.90 American Lion :23.60 :24.13 :24.35 :26.08 :29.48 Flores D R 23.20 Jackson Bend :23.87 :24.19 :24.52 :25.56 :29.54 Smith M E 23.00 Discreetly Mine :23.23 :24.06 :24.42 :26.34 :30.74 Castellano J J 31.60 Dean's Kitten :24.82 :23.84 :24.35 :26.27 :30.06 Albarado R J 25.70 Conveyance :22.63 :23.53 :24.42 :27.43 :33.80 Garcia M 27.00 Homeboykris :24.30 :24.47 :24.71 :27.60 :32.52 Dominguez R A 27.00 Sidney's Candy :22.80 :23.62 :24.34 :27.84 :35.09 Talamo J 9.50 Line of David :23.14 :23.96 :24.62 :28.67 :34.35 Bejarano R 19.90 Awesome Act :25.16 :24.02 :24.20 :26.32 :35.07 Leparoux J R 11.60 Backtalk :24.31 :24.43 :24.62 :27.44 :35.58 Mena M 23.10 Judging by the fourth quarter mile It looks like the leaders were backing up and NP simply inherited the lead. I can't see anything to indicate he was the one to "collapse the race". |
Michael Johnson in his prime would have given those last few finishers a run for their money in a foot race from the quarter pole.
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At best it cost him 4th place. That last quarter was brutal.
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I've watched the race again and NBC showed the overhead view. If any premature move was made by NP it was going into the first turn where he went from a half length behind SS to 2 1/2 lengths ahead of him. From that point in the race to the finish at no point did he gain any ground on SS.
NP was one off the rail around the far turn while SS was against the rail so I suppose any ground loss has to be taken into consideration. |
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Noble's Promise, who had the lead in the Derby at the quarter pole but was overtaken by Super Saver and Calvin Borel and finished fifth, has been moved from “doubtful” to “possible” by trainer Kenny McPeek after meeting with the managing partners of Chasing Dreams Racing 2008 this afternoon at McPeek’s Magdalena Farm in Lexington.
“He ran a great race,” added McPeek. “ He is a special colt. Does he have distance limitations? We have to admit he might have them. Do we tinker and see if we can get him to go that far? We’re willing to try.” |
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As far as the fractions are concerned they only substantiate what appears to be the leaders collapsing into the rest of the field. |
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And, it's not like I have anything in particular against IC. Here's just one of many horses that needs that xtra special trip to win a race. 99% of all horses are probably like that. Why would I assume that he runs down SS then if he doesn't have to go around a whole bunch of horses while drafting when they're driving? I'm not making this **** up it's obvious in my charts. And, I've learned the hard way ($$$) not to go against the obvious. |
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There is some relevence to history as well.....and a final last move in the Derby never seems to win. |
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Don't feel like reading through all of this - so maybe it was already mentioned - but Noble's Promise is now likely for the Preakness. Might offer some good value. . .
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Noble's Promise would be a good pickup for a good rider that is open. I know the Fat Man has belabored it to death, but he's right, this horse never seems to get a good ride. Now, maybe he's tough to ride, but he could use a patient rider like Gomez.
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One constant in all these races: IB made the LAST move. Put him in a race where he has to do his own work and he's just not getting it done. He needs help. Quite a bit of help. So, I ask again: where's his GOOD race? |
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Ice Box ran well Saturday. You may be right that he will likely need "help" to win, but most horses do. Running well and having race dynamics in a horse's favor are not mutually exclusive concepts. |
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2 years ago... Big Brown didn't take the lead until the end of the turn. 3 years ago... Street Sense didn't pass Hard Spun till mid stretch. 4 years ago... Barbaro didn't take the lead until nearing the end of the turn. 6 years ago... Smarty Jones didn't take the lead until they left the final turn. |
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It wouldn't surprise me that NP was in front at some point in between calls or earlier than Big Brown or Barbaro. (Although my recollection of Barbaro's race was that he had the lead midway on the turn.) In any event if you watch BB's and Barbaro's derbys I would guess that they were moving away from the others behind them when they made those moves. This was not the case with Nobles Promise. He was separated from SS by the same distance throughout the run down the backstretch and around the turn. If NP made a premature move then so did Super Saver. What really was happening was the two leaders were backing up to the field. On the pan shot from NBC you can only see three horses when NP inherited the lead. That gave the appearance that he was moving swiftly and perhaps prematurely but only from the skycam can you see that SS was moving just as quickly as NP. If there was any move that hurt NP's chances it was the one going into the clubhouse turn. |
The move that hurt Nobles Promise's best chances of a victory was the selection of which pilot to use...
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I honestly think the fact that Conveyance and Sidney's Candy were stopping so badly made it look like Willy made more of a move then he really did. His horse was simply traveling better then the two tired leaders. The only move Willy made was to move in time to split the two front runners. After he split them and hit the front he sat chilly again, it's not like he went all in at the 3/8ths pole like everyone is acting. The only possible move you can critique from his ride is the fact that he didnt shut back off the rail when he did hit the front. This is a son of Cuvee and 5th in the derby is an overachievement in many ways. I dont think he was cost a placing nor do I think he is any better then what he's shown so far. He could be a very dangerous horse at a mile maybe a little more. But that's it, Willy is getting lumped way too much blame here.
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I have watched the replay and the head on, Willy pushed to make the gap between two tiring horses. Its clear as day he drops his hands back down after he splits them. He saw the upcoming logjam about to happen and avoided it. All in would of been a full hand ride from the 3/8ths on which he didnt do at all. He actually didnt even hit his horse until Super Saver shouldered him. So I think its you who should go watch the replay again.
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