The fact that there's no speed in the race? Wouldn't you have said the same thing about Da' Tara last year? Fool me once..

I haven't looked over the whole card yet. just the Belmont.

It appears that Miners Escape is the lone speed. Will he wire it or be absorbed? It's curious to me that both he & Brave Victory, both Zito horses have been working together last 2 w/o's. Brave Victory hasn't won against stakes company. Miners Escape has yet to try. The unproven 3yo stepping up in a field of plodders is dangerous.

Just my luck. I thought noone else liked this horse. He's been pointing to this race since May 7th.:mad:

Being coupled with Everyday Heroes doesn't help his odds. They're the 2/1 ML favorite.

Now I KNOW those odds can't be because of his entry-mate.
Saturday may be a good day to play CD.

Chocolate Candy is too slow to win

You probably said the same thing about Mine That Bird in the Derby also. oops.

I dont think the ML odds for this race are going to end up being accurate. I think This Ones for Phil and Munnings will end up the 2 favorites somewhere aroound 2/1-5/2, and Regal Ransom and Hull will be in the 4/1-6/1 range.

I see this race a bit differntly than most on here. I see Charitable Man being the clear speed and I am not talking about him just having "lope along" speed in a race without any. Hes got real speed and I expect him to be the clear early leader. Just hoping at least 1-2 others keep this pace honest.

As far as Miners Escape, I dont see him as a board factor. I think he'll get used up in trying to chase Charitable Man.

Da Tara was a shocker last year and I would have said before the race, no way he can win. But looking back, there was really 1 horse to beat (Big Brown) and he had quite the "off day!" For Miners Escape to win, wouldnt 3 horses have to have "off days?"

And going into last year's Belmont, didnt Big Brown appear as "lone speed?"
I played Da Tara on Preakness Day, damn I wish I played him back!

timmy - it's raining now down here , guess who likes the slop!!

Yes, I absolutely said the same thing or worse in those two cases! I had Da' Tara at 60-1 in my line for last year's Belmont. I had Mine That Bird at 100-1 in my Ky Derby line. Given the same info up to the point of those races, I wouldn't rework those odds.

The fact that longshots sometimes win doesn't suggest to me that betting longshots is now automatically a good idea. I don't get the "no speed in the race" rationale, either, ateam. Miner's Escape's "speed" is clearly not a lone-speed type of speed, what with Charitable Man and Dunkirk running. And even in a 9 furlong race, he could only muster a 12.9 sec final furlong.

How is a horse that in its best race finishes 9 furlongs with a 12.9 after a 48.8 half going to win this 12-furlong race? It would take more than a 50-1 set of circumstances IMO.

--Dunbar

Hull won the Derby Trial at Churchill on dirt. He did win an allowance on Poly but his maiden win was at FG.

I'll take Dunbar's arguments and lay the points.

I'd like to know why Miners Escape is considered a pace factor in this race.He was sitting behind Tone It Down in the Tesio in a slow 48 4/5 and Tone It Down could do no better than 9th place in the early going in the Preakness.

Brave Victory is just as capable of being on the lead in a slow pace as Miners Escape is and has shown in his sprints that he is the second fastest sprinter in the field behind Charitable Man.

That being said Miners Escape is certainly bred for the distance more so than his stablemate so I can't dismiss his chances based on his breeding. I just don't see him as a horse who will provide a meaningful pace.

Dunbar - i read somewhere in the NY post where a columnist picked MTB for the belmont saying he thought he should be odds on and since he projects him to go off at 8/5 or 9/5 , MTB offers good value to win , do you agree?

I dont think its going to be sloppy tomorrow.

i don't think it will matter , you know when our man picks pletcher he becomes an auto toss

Not a speed horse.

Right, but you have to believe he's going to be closer than he's ever been if they go :49 or so.

NT

No, I don't agree he should be odds on. I do think he is a solid favorite and that his fair odds are in the 8/5 to 9/5 range. I'd need 2-1 to consider a bet; I'd be happy to bet him at 5-2.

--Dunbar

I hope so because he's my top choice in the race, but I don't understand how Dunkirk factors into Dunbar's argument against Miner's Escape at all.

thx

1 more dunbar

what is a fair price tomorrow in the Just a Game for:

#6 Modern Look

Considering Modern Look has no chance to wire the field with Raw Silk in the field, considering she couldn't hold off Dawn After Dawn after getting a perfect pressing trip on a medium pace going 1 Mile, and likely will not be able to hold off horses with the class and ability of Forever Together and My Princess Jess, I would rate her chances as having no shot, and she should be 30/1 or higher.

according to the barn she is in better shape now and ready to go , can you give me a fair price on him for this race , in your opinion it sounds like he s/b 50/1?

Don't believe everything you hear from barns...This horse could be in great shape but based on the field for the race, she has no chance. The horse could be doing best of all, but how's she going to hold of Forever Together and My Princess Jess in the stretch? How's she going to see the early lead when Raw Silk is faster than her early. She couldn't hold off Dawn After Dawn who came back to run 2nd in an extremely below average edition of the Distaff Turf Mile, as any horse in that field would be drowned by anyone in this field. I think anything less than 20/1 or 30/1 is a severe underlay for Modern Look.

if she goes off above 20/1 . i take a stab

hockey, I only mentioned Dunkirk as an argument against Miner's Escape somehow getting an easy lead. (and I was probably mis-interpreting ateam's post as suggesting that Miner's Escape DID have speed.)

Bottom line, though, is I don't see how lack of pace in the race is going to help Miner's Escape. There are good horses like Dunkirk and Charitable Man that will probably be in front of him early, and there are good horses like Mine That Bird, Summer Bird and Flying Private that will be coming late from the back of the pack.

As far as Dunkirk goes, there's obviously a lot of guesswork. Do you completely toss his Derby? I'm reluctant to toss races completely. If I toss Dunkirk's Derby, I'd have him at 7-2 tomorrow. As it is, he's closer to 9-2 in my line.

--Dunbar

Haven't capped it yet, Gales.

--Dunbar

She's at least got a nice record over "less than firm" turf. She's faced very good fillies all her life but this looks like a tough spot, in terms of the race shape. You should get a a nice price.

Dunkirk's Derby is a complete toss. The trick is figuring out whether or not to believe his prior races (personally, I do). Miner's Escape is a speed horse/presser type in this field considering that the only other horse with much early speed is Charitable Man - the furthest he'll be back early is second barring a terrible break or some other unforeseen occurrence. The tough one to figure out for me is Summer Bird. There are some things to like, and some things to hate. It would help to know how Kent plans on riding him with the addition of blinkers. If he's tracking the leaders early maybe he's the one to take at a price.

maybe kent stays just behind calvin , and when calvin goes kent will go?

kent obviously on another horse in the derby made a premature move , calvin just let him go that day and picked up the pieces

I think Flying Private is worth just as much of a flyer underneath as Summer Bird and Flying Private may be a better price. Flying Private obviously didn't handle the off track in Derby as he never has yet, and he arguably had a much worse trip than Summer Bird in Arkansas. I think it's between Dunkirk, Mine That Bird, and Flying Private. The three fastest horses in the race/the three horses with the top figures.

jersey j - isn't charitable man's numbers as fast as those 3 - i heard he has a 2 on the rags , mtb only has a 3 as his best , dunkirk also has a 2

Those are my three horses also... Though I do not expect Flying Private to win... I could see him hitting the board.

I would actually bet someone in a head to head I'll take Flying Private and they can have Charity Case.

What are you betting?

probably $20 to win on Dunkirk

& a Mine that Bird, Flying Private and Dunkirk exacta box.

I mean in the head to head.

oh sorry.. a head to head is when you and a partner each pick a horse in the race and whichever horse beats the other wins (doesnt matter if they run last and next to last).

I'm a poor bitch but I'd put $10 or $20 on Flying Private beating Charitable man.

You wanna put $15 on it and take Charitable Man?

I'm leaving work in 4 minutes and most likely wont be on the internet til monday so let me know now!