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-   -   Biancone, cold with 2 year olds, my theory why (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2949)

oracle80 08-08-2006 07:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2MinsToPost
How I see it, as a new comer to this sport

Facts

- Less horses breaking down so far, considerably less

- Less days cancelled because of track conditions

Opinion

Everything else.

Let time tell the tale. I am no expert, I don't hold a candle to the wind of most on here but I have enough sense to know that in due course if the above two trends hold water and continue at their current pace (in other words considerably less breakdowns most importanly) then what is not to like about the surface assuming it is not harmful to those working around it daily. Are some of you telling me you would rather see more breakdowns on dirt then less on Poly?

On the subject of breeding, it will take care of itself. It has no choice. It has been in evolution for hundreds of years, subject to change and will continue to evolve. So be it that a horse like With A City might steal a race because of the surface. Some will lose, some will gain.

Not a very informed opinion. Breeding may take care of itself but i can assure you the industry on which the sport is based won't if its thrown into undervalued chaos. Its ok though. Cold day in hell before Ny, Gulfstream, or CD change to it.

Scav 08-08-2006 07:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oracle80
Not a very informed opinion. Breeding may take care of itself but i can assure you the industry on which the sport is based won't if its thrown into undervalued chaos. Its ok though. Cold day in hell before Ny, Gulfstream, or CD change to it.

If Gulfstream or Arlington change to this crap, I am protesting outside...i will be sitting in a tire wrapped in plastic

Gander 08-08-2006 07:54 PM

Could care less about Gulfstream, that place has gone to the dogs anyways. Its as bad as Delmar. Please no NY tracks going to the Poly. Could probably smell that sh-it from my place here in Toga.

ArlJim78 08-08-2006 07:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav
If Gulfstream or Arlington change to this crap, I am protesting outside...i will be sitting in a tire wrapped in plastic

Hey Hey, Ho Ho, Polycrap has got to go.

GenuineRisk 08-08-2006 08:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oracle80
Well I'd like you to find me the guys who wanna race on it. Sure the gyp trainers and guys who train cheap horses held together with bandages and a paryer wanna race on it because to them they can jam the sore horses in more often. But the dog wags the tail, the tail doesn't wag the dog. This game, whether anyone likes it or not(and most don't) is predicated on the performance and success of the breeders and the breeding market. Noone can doubt that. WHy do you think people pay millions for horses who have virtually no chance ever of winning back that money on the track? Because they can make it on the back end in the shed. You wanna see this game go bad, and I mean REAL bad? Just go ahead and cause a catastrophic disruption in the breeding market and watch the devestation trickle down. Its quite simple, a healthy breeding market attracts more owners and means more money spent on horses which means more farms who are solvent and more trainers who have horses to train. You go and make 300-500 grand sires worthless and see what happens to the rest of the business, because quite frankly the American breeding market is predicated on speed. This is a serious matter.

Yeah, but Oracle, businesses go down the toilet every day of the year-- it's part of a capitalistic economy. Breeding has only been the name of the game for the past what, 20 or 30 years? And yet somehow the sport managed for centuries before it. Yes, if for some reason there becomes a major push for Polytrack horses, some breeding farms will go down, while other ones will spring up. If 300,000 to 500,000 sires become worthless, then the very small number of people benefiting from AP Indy and Storm Cat will suffer financially. But AP Indy and Storm Cat are going to die someday anyway, aren't they?

I can see where it will make for a difficult few years as breeding people adapt to the shift in the market, but that's capitalism. The smart and the lucky will succeed and the dumb and the unlucky will fail. That's business. I can't see how a new track surface will lead to the gloom and doom for racing in its entirety that you seem to fear. (Always happy to be shown the light, but right now I don't see it.)

Danzig 08-08-2006 08:59 PM

it was also noted months ago here in ark that polytrack runners won NOTHING at oaklawn.

eurobounce 08-08-2006 09:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander
Could care less about Gulfstream, that place has gone to the dogs anyways. Its as bad as Delmar. Please no NY tracks going to the Poly. Could probably smell that sh-it from my place here in Toga.

I dont understand where you get the stuff stinks. It doesnt smell like anything. I have a bag of it on my desk at home and it doesnt smell at all.

Cajungator26 08-08-2006 09:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eurobounce
I dont understand where you get the stuff stinks. It doesnt smell like anything. I have a bag of it on my desk at home and it doesnt smell at all.

It does kind of have an odd odor to it once it's first put down. It also smells funky after it rains. We had the stuff installed at a jumping facility down here in Florida over a decade ago.

eurobounce 08-08-2006 09:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26
It does kind of have an odd odor to it once it's first put down. It also smells funky after it rains. We had the stuff installed at a jumping facility down here in Florida over a decade ago.

I guess, I mean I have some of it at home, I have been to Turfway a dozen times whether it was hot, cold or rainy and I have never ever smelled something odd. But then again, I smell oil and grease all day so maybe I am immune.

oracle80 08-08-2006 09:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GenuineRisk
Yeah, but Oracle, businesses go down the toilet every day of the year-- it's part of a capitalistic economy. Breeding has only been the name of the game for the past what, 20 or 30 years? And yet somehow the sport managed for centuries before it. Yes, if for some reason there becomes a major push for Polytrack horses, some breeding farms will go down, while other ones will spring up. If 300,000 to 500,000 sires become worthless, then the very small number of people benefiting from AP Indy and Storm Cat will suffer financially. But AP Indy and Storm Cat are going to die someday anyway, aren't they?

I can see where it will make for a difficult few years as breeding people adapt to the shift in the market, but that's capitalism. The smart and the lucky will succeed and the dumb and the unlucky will fail. That's business. I can't see how a new track surface will lead to the gloom and doom for racing in its entirety that you seem to fear. (Always happy to be shown the light, but right now I don't see it.)

I don't care if other businesses go down the drain, I love racing, and I don't wanna see it go down the drain on a con that anyone could smell a mile away.

oracle80 08-08-2006 09:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eurobounce
I dont understand where you get the stuff stinks. It doesnt smell like anything. I have a bag of it on my desk at home and it doesnt smell at all.

Lemme get this straight. You keep claiming you have no vested interest in the stuff yet you have a bag of the stuff at home on your desk? Now who the heck is kidding who here?

eurobounce 08-08-2006 09:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oracle80
Lemme get this straight. You keep claiming you have no vested interest in the stuff yet you have a bag of the stuff at home on your desk? Now who the heck is kidding who here?

Well it isnt hard to get a bag of it. I tell you what, take a trip to Turfway, get a zip lock bag, go in the backside and scoop some up. Then you will have a bag of PolyTrack like me.

oracle80 08-08-2006 10:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eurobounce
Well it isnt hard to get a bag of it. I tell you what, take a trip to Turfway, get a zip lock bag, go in the backside and scoop some up. Then you will have a bag of PolyTrack like me.

You avoid the true question. If you don't have an interest in it, why the heck would you WANT a bag of it? I mean, I can't think of anything I'd rather do less in the world than go to the track with a ziplock bag and scoop up polytrack and take it home. Whats the real deal with you and this stuff, because anyone who has a bag on their desk of the stuff is obsessed with it.

eurobounce 08-08-2006 10:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oracle80
You avoid the true question. If you don't have an interest in it, why the heck would you WANT a bag of it? I mean, I can't think of anything I'd rather do less in the world than go to the track with a ziplock bag and scoop up polytrack and take it home. Whats the real deal with you and this stuff, because anyone who has a bag on their desk of the stuff is obsessed with it.

I was curious when Turfway installed the track. So I went over and grabbed a handful. I was an engineer major and I am interested in the sort of thing. I just havent thrown it away yet. I still have my Farah Fawcett poster, my Heather Thomas poster, Kiss poster and my Rat poster. I think I have a problem throwing things away.

oracle80 08-08-2006 10:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eurobounce
I was curious when Turfway installed the track. So I went over and grabbed a handful. I was an engineer major and I am interested in the sort of thing. I just havent thrown it away yet. I still have my Farah Fawcett poster, my Heather Thomas poster, Kiss poster and my Rat poster. I think I have a problem throwing things away.

Ok thats plausible. I get you know. The stuff would fascinate an engineering mind. Carry on with your obsession, lol.

Cajungator26 08-08-2006 10:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eurobounce
I was curious when Turfway installed the track. So I went over and grabbed a handful. I was an engineer major and I am interested in the sort of thing. I just havent thrown it away yet. I still have my Farah Fawcett poster, my Heather Thomas poster, Kiss poster and my Rat poster. I think I have a problem throwing things away.

Me too. I'm moving in a few weeks too... this has been a nightmare trying to get stuff boxed up. :eek:

oracle80 08-08-2006 10:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26
Me too. I'm moving in a few weeks too... this has been a nightmare trying to get stuff boxed up. :eek:

LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

ArlJim78 08-08-2006 10:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26
Me too. I'm moving in a few weeks too... this has been a nightmare trying to get stuff boxed up. :eek:

Yes but please tell us that amongst all of your packing there is not a single bag of Polytrack.

eurobounce 08-08-2006 10:13 PM

I pissed of my wife something serious one time. I was curious about her make-up and perfume. So I totally destroyed all of it. I was trying to break it down and study it--lol. Man, that trip to Maybelline counter was expensive

Cajungator26 08-08-2006 10:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78
Yes but please tell us that amongst all of your packing there is not a single bag of Polytrack.

LMAO... actually, I used to have some of it when they installed it at the show facility I used to show at. I don't care for the stuff. It smelled kind of funny and it my horse didn't seem to move as well over the stuff as he did clay. I'm not 100% opposed to a dirt/synthetic mixture. I guess we will see how this whole polytrack thing pans out.

Cajungator26 08-08-2006 10:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eurobounce
I pissed of my wife something serious one time. I was curious about her make-up and perfume. So I totally destroyed all of it. I was trying to break it down and study it--lol. Man, that trip to Maybelline counter was expensive

Maybelline is garbage makeup... it's grocery store stuff. They don't have a counter. LOL :p

eurobounce 08-08-2006 10:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26
Maybelline is garbage makeup... it's grocery store stuff. They don't have a counter. LOL :p

All I know is that I stood in Walgreens for like hours. I think I tested my blood pressure like 15 times.

oracle80 08-08-2006 10:18 PM

Look Euro, if tracks wanted to install the stuff as a THIRD surface to go with turf and dirt I wouldn't care. Let the crippled claimers polytrack into the night. But thats not how its being marketed. Its being marketed as a replacement for dirt. Its become quite clear in the limited sample that ther is no correlation between form on the two. Call me crazy, but i don't think its rational, thought out well, or wise to take 150 years of training, breeding, etc and toss it out the window and tamper with sinking the breeding market which is the base of the economic structure of the sport.
I also think it will show a DECREASE in handle which will sink purses and tracks. The Turfway stats are quite misleading. First of all handle went up because they cancelled fewer cards. That won't come into play in Cali at all. 2nd of all I don't mean to bash Turfway but its not a major track that players play. I haven't read a single public handicapper or major player who likes the stuff to bet on. read this thread, how many guys are saying they won't be the stuff(add me to that list as well)? You take a major circuit like Cali or keeneland and I will bet you anything you want that handle goes down!!!!! The big bettors(5%) account for maybe 50% of handle. If they vote no with their bankrolls lets see how handle goes shall we?

eurobounce 08-08-2006 10:19 PM

Cajun--where are you moving. I have moved twice in my life and I wont move ever again.

eurobounce 08-08-2006 10:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oracle80
Look Euro, if tracks wanted to install the stuff as a THIRD surface to go with turf and dirt I wouldn't care. Let the crippled claimers polytrack into the night. But thats not how its being marketed. Its being marketed as a replacement for dirt. Its become quite clear in the limited sample that ther is no correlation between form on the two. Call me crazy, but i don't think its rational, thought out well, or wise to take 150 years of training, breeding, etc and toss it out the window and tamper with sinking the breeding market which is the base of the economic structure of the sport.
I also think it will show a DECREASE in handle which will sink purses and tracks. The Turfway stats are quite misleading. First of all handle went up because they cancelled fewer cards. That won't come into play in Cali at all. 2nd of all I don't mean to bash Turfway but its not a major track that players play. I haven't read a single public handicapper or major player who likes the stuff to bet on. read this thread, how many guys are saying they won't be the stuff(add me to that list as well)? You take a major circuit like Cali or keeneland and I will bet you anything you want that handle goes down!!!!! The big bettors(5%) account for maybe 50% of handle. If they vote no with their bankrolls lets see how handle goes shall we?

I guess time will tell.

oracle80 08-08-2006 10:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eurobounce
I guess time will tell.

Wise man! I take it you don't want that bet?

ArlJim78 08-08-2006 10:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26
LMAO... actually, I used to have some of it when they installed it at the show facility I used to show at. I don't care for the stuff. It smelled kind of funny and it my horse didn't seem to move as well over the stuff as he did clay. I'm not 100% opposed to a dirt/synthetic mixture. I guess we will see how this whole polytrack thing pans out.

Ok then, you're alright. It sounds like your bag was for receational use only, and not for distribution.:rolleyes:

eurobounce 08-08-2006 10:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oracle80
Wise man! I take it you don't want that bet?

We all know I dont gamble--:cool:

oracle80 08-08-2006 10:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eurobounce
We all know I dont gamble--:cool:

Ok, lol, smart bet not to take.

Cajungator26 08-08-2006 10:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eurobounce
All I know is that I stood in Walgreens for like hours. I think I tested my blood pressure like 15 times.

WALGREENS?!!! LMFAO!!!

I thought you were talking about going to the makeup counter in a department store. COMEDY!!! :D :D :D

eurobounce 08-08-2006 10:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26
WALGREENS?!!! LMFAO!!!

I thought you were talking about going to the makeup counter in a department store. COMEDY!!! :D :D :D

Oh no. This was when we were poor--lol. Now she goes to some place in Macy's.

sumitas 08-08-2006 10:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eurobounce
Well it isnt hard to get a bag of it. I tell you what, take a trip to Turfway, get a zip lock bag, go in the backside and scoop some up. Then you will have a bag of PolyTrack like me.

sell it on ebay :)

Cajungator26 08-08-2006 10:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eurobounce
Oh no. This was when we were poor--lol. Now she goes to some place in Macy's.

Now we're talking. LOL :p

eurobounce 08-08-2006 10:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26
Now we're talking. LOL :p

i prefer to shop at the outlet malls, but no she has to go to the mall and pay retail. i cant stand the mall. makes me sick.

Cajungator26 08-08-2006 10:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eurobounce
i prefer to shop at the outlet malls, but no she has to go to the mall and pay retail. i cant stand the mall. makes me sick.

I don't care for it either... I'd rather spend my time and money in a tack/feed store. :cool: I'm looking at buying a new saddle soon, but I suppose I should wait until after I move and get everything situated. :rolleyes:

eurobounce 08-08-2006 10:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26
I don't care for it either... I'd rather spend my time and money in a tack/feed store. :cool: I'm looking at buying a new saddle soon, but I suppose I should wait until after I move and get everything situated. :rolleyes:

Yeah that would be a good idea. Moving is so expensive. Plus I break everything so I have to buy everything all over again.

oracle80 08-08-2006 10:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eurobounce
Yeah that would be a good idea. Moving is so expensive. Plus I break everything so I have to buy everything all over again.

LOL!! I know quite well what you are talking about!!!

GenuineRisk 08-09-2006 06:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oracle80
I don't care if other businesses go down the drain, I love racing, and I don't wanna see it go down the drain on a con that anyone could smell a mile away.

Oracle, I don't think racing will go down the drain over Polytrack. If Polytrack takes off, it'll change, for sure, but it won't go down the drain. But if you're right, and handle does start to go down at tracks with Polytrack there quickly will be a cloud of synthetic stuff flying into the air as they tear the tracks up and replace them with dirt. Racing will follow the gamblers- if they don't like it, it won't catch on for long.

slotdirt 08-09-2006 08:20 AM

I just finished moving last week. I'm pretty certain I'll be unpacking for about another six months, then it'll be time to move again.

And euro, it's RatT, not Rat like Rizzo.

Rupert Pupkin 08-09-2006 08:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oracle80
You know one of th biggest shocks to me this meet has been that patrick Biancone has been completely stone cold as ice with his babies. One thing you could always count on with Biancone was that he would send out very fast expensive babies who were all cranked up and ready to roll. They have been beyond horrible. Yesterday a very well bred and expensive NY bred two year old debuted and was just awful. All of his babies have been except City Snitch who won very nicely on opening day(he was a 2nd time starter). So last night in reviewing what had been going on up here in hopes of reversing some of these terrible narrow losses I've been taking up here I got to looking at Binacone and why he was so uncharacteristically awful. The answer why to me stood out like a sore thumb upon review.
In past years he prepped all of his stable at saratoga's legendary Oklahoma training track. Very deep and safe, its been utilized by guys like Shug, Mott, Zito, Pletcher, and Biancone for the last decade to get horses ready to roll. Those guys arrive when it opens in the spring and stay until fall. This year patrick did something different, a look at ALL of his babies showed that he chose to get them all ready to run at Turfway park with its polytrack. Only City Snitch has won, and he had raced at CD, where he lost at a short price and then was sent to saratoga for his works before his win. Its pretty obvious guys that the Polytrack preperation has left his babies without speed and stamina. Its not even debatable unless you wanna contend that ALL of his babies are just no good this year.
It simply looks as if those(including myself) who feel that polytrack is not even a distant cousin of dirt as far as how it translates to dirt form have a point. I'm going to declare right now that I will bet that Biancone's babies will start running and firing in their 2nd starts up here. Also look to play his firsters as the meet goes on after they have worked at the training track up here a few times. The only winner he had fit that profile(City Snitch) and I'm extermely confident that there will be some nice priced two year old winners to follow when they run back up here later in the meet.
Don't say i didn't warn you when this starts happening.

At first, I thought that your hypothesis was pretty good but the more I think about it, it really shouldn't make a difference what surface the horses are trained on. Horses usually either like a surface or they don't like a surface. They don't usually take time to adjust to a new surface. For example, you see horses run on the turf who have never had a single workout on the turf, yet these horses win all the time. It's not as if they run better in their second start on the turf. If they like it, they usally run good on it the first time. They don't need time to get used to it.

If horsess can train exclusively on the dirt and then run well when they race on the grass, I don't see why horses that train exclusively on polytrack would have a problem racing on regular dirt.


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